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BMW Championship odds, predictions: Our three best matchup bets

Nick Hennion of The Action Network breaks down his best matchup bets for the BMW Championship.

Sam Burns of the United States plays his shot from the seventh tee during the final round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind on August 14, 2022 in Memphis, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Sam Burns of the United States plays his shot from the seventh tee during the final round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind on August 14, 2022 in Memphis, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)Read moreAndy Lyons / Getty Images

We’re less than 24 hours away from the start of the 2022 BMW Championship and we continue to outline our best bets for the tournament.

Yesterday, it was all about our favorite derivatives and longshots. Today, we focus on head-to-head matchups that provide bettors a chance of cashing a ticket. In utilizing my statistical model and relevant course history, I’ve settled on three markets — two of which feature underdogs I have rated as a favorite — that give bettors the best overall value.

Here are my three best head-to-head bets for the BMW Championship. All odds are reflective at time of writing.

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Best Bet #1 - Sam Burns (+112) over Sungjae Im, Fanduel

We faded Im last week at TPC Southwind and I’m willing to fade him again this week at Wilmington CC.

Neither of these players bring a lot of experience at correlative courses to the BMW, but in the little experience each has, Burns has an overall advantage in my model. Across each players’s last eight rounds on Par 71′s measuring over 7,400 yards, Burns sits 29th overall in my model while Im places 47th.

The big discerning factor for me, though, is where Burns’s advantages lie. In the three most-emphasized category of my statistical model — driving distance, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Approach — Burns has an advantage in every one. He’s eighth in driving distance compared to 51st for Im, 30th in ball-striking versus 44th for Im and 34th on approach versus 51st once again for Im.

Additionally, whereas the South Korean international brings a slight advantage in Par 4 Efficiency (35th vs. 40th), Burns has a big advantage when it comes to the more specific measure. Across that same eight-round span, Burns is fifth in Par 4 Efficiency on holes measuring 400-450 yards while Im sits 33rd.

Lastly, despite finishing ahead of Burns last week at TPC Southwind, Im’s performance largely relied on his putter as he actually lost strokes on approach. For those reasons, back Burns up to -115 in this market.

» READ MORE: BMW Championship odds, predictions: Two longshots to back outright

Best Bet #2 - Cameron Davis (-122) over Russell Henley, Fanduel

Davis finds himself amidst a great run of form and should be able to continue that run in Wilmington.

The Australian has posted four straight top-20 finishes, including a 13th last week at TPC Southwind. On the flip side, Henley missed the cut last week after two consecutive top-10 finishes. Davis also arrives with an advantage in my statistical model. Over each players’s previous 24 qualifying rounds, Davis sits 16th while Henley ranks 51st of 70 players (Davis has only 16 rounds).

Davis brings his most sizable advantages in driving distance (34-spot advantage) and SG: Approach (32-spot advantage). He also bests Henley by at least 19 spots in birdies or better gained, three-putt avoidance and Par 4 Efficiency.

Even if you remove the two qualifiers from the model, Davis still arrives with an advantage, albeit less emphasized. Over each players’s last 12 rounds, Davis sits seventh overall in my model while Henley ranks 11th. Although Henley brings advantages in ball-striking on approach, Davis still has a sizable advantage in driving distance and still bests Henley in birdies or better gained and three-putt avoidance.

For those reasons, back the Australian up to -130 in this market.

» READ MORE: BMW Championship: Key stats, statistical modeling strategy at Wilmington CC

Best Bet #3 - Tony Finau (+105) over Matt Fitzpatrick, BetMGM

Not only does Finau rank first overall in both my 12- and 24-round generalized model, but he also profiles well on correlated courses.

Across his previous 24 rounds on Par 71′s over 7,400 yards, Finau ranks fifth overall in my statistical model. He’s also more experienced than Fitzpatrick, who only has eight qualifying rounds under those circumstances. Even if we’re only to consider Finau’s last eight qualifying rounds to level the field with Fitzpatrick, he still ranks ninth overall in the field while the U.S. Open champion sits all the way down in 50th.

Granted, Fitzpatrick has gained a lot of distance off the tee since those measured rounds, but Finau still impresses in the specified model. He’s fifth in both driving distance and SG: Approach while sitting 13th in SG: Ball Striking. He also leads the field in three-putt avoidance and sits 22nd in Par 4 Efficiency.

Even in revisiting the generalized model that includes no sorting factors, Finau is still ahead of Fitzpatrick in all the key ball striking categories. In fact, he leads in all 11 individual measures over Fitzpatrick, who is a concerning 37th in SG: Approach and 41st in three-putt avoidance over his previous 24 rounds.

For those reasons, I’ll back Finau up to -110 in this head-to-head.

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