2023 March Madness odds: Alabama favored slightly over Houston to win it all

When the 2022-23 college basketball national championship futures market opened in April, eight schools had odds of +1400 or better at BetMGM.

None of those eight schools were named Alabama or Houston. And only two of the eight are still alive entering the second weekend of March Madness — one of which is a No. 8 seed that finished under .500 in its conference.

Here’s an updated look at 2023 March Madness odds coming out of a wild first four days of the NCAA Tournament.

Odds updated as of 2:45 p.m. ET on March 20.

The moment the 2023 NCAA Tournament tipped off Thursday, Houston was favored to win the school’s first national championship, with +500 odds at BetMGM. Alabama was the second choice at +700.

However, after two narrow victories by Houston and two blowout wins by Alabama, the schools have flip-flopped positions: The Crimson Tide, who also are seeking their first men’s basketball title, are the lead dog heading into the Sweet 16, with the Cougars now a close second.

No big surprise there, of course. After all, Alabama earned the No. 1 overall March Madness seed and Houston nabbed the second No. 1 seed.

No, this is the real stunner: Half of BetMGM’s top eight preseason title favorites — Duke (+800), Kentucky (+1000), defending champion Kansas (+1200), Baylor (+1400) — didn’t survive the opening weekend. And a fifth — North Carolina (+1400) — didn’t even get invited to the party.

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Even more confounding, 11 of the 19 teams that had the shortest odds to win the tournament when it started just five days ago are gone.

Those teams: No. 1 seed Kansas (+800 at BetMGM), No. 1 Purdue (+1100), No. 2 Arizona (+1200), No. 2 Marquette (+1700), No. 3 Baylor (+1800), No. 4 Indiana (+3500), No. 4 Virginia (+4000), No. 5 Duke (+3000), No. 5 Saint Mary’s (+4000), No. 6 TCU (+3500) and No. 6 Kentucky (+4000).

So in many ways, the wide-open NCAA Tournament many projected has in fact materialized.

Just look at the South and East regions, where a No. 5 seed (San Diego State), a No. 6 seed (Creighton), a No. 7 seed (Michigan State), a No. 9 seed (Florida Atlantic) and a No. 15 seed (Princeton) marched on to the Sweet 16.

Of that group, Creighton entered March Madness with the best odds to cut down the nets in Houston, site of this year’s Final Four. The Bluejays were +4000 early last week at BetMGM; they’re now the +1000 sixth choice.

Meanwhile, in the span of two games and five days, Michigan State has gone from 100-to-1 (+10000) to the +2500 co-ninth choice to win its first championship since 2001.

Then there’s the story of Arkansas. Not long after Kansas outlasted North Carolina in last year’s championship game, the Razorbacks opened with +1000 odds at BetMGM to win this year’s title.

That put Arkansas behind only Duke and tied with Kentucky.

However, after an up-and-down season and a ninth-place finish in the 14-team SEC, the Razorbacks were given a No. 8 seed for the NCAA Tournament. Their pre-March Madness odds at BetMGM: +5000.

Those odds didn’t budge after Arkansas easily took out No. 9 seed Illinois in a first-round West Region matchup. Then the Hogs stunned No. 1 seed Kansas on Saturday, and their national championship odds only dipped to +3000 at BetMGM.

So despite being one of just 16 teams remaining in the field, Arkansas has longer odds to win it all than it did last spring. And the Razorbacks currently are looking up at more teams on the oddsboard (10) than when college basketball’s 2023 futures market opened (one).

The five teams with the shortest national championship odds at BetMGM include the lone remaining No. 1 (Alabama, Houston) and No. 2 seeds (UCLA, Texas), plus a No. 4 seed (UConn).

No. 6 seed Creighton (+1000), No. 3 Gonzaga (+1100) and No. 4 Tennessee (+1400) are the only other teams still alive with odds better than +2500 at BetMGM.

However, FanDuel has Texas (+1000) in the sixth spot behind Alabama, Houston, UCLA, UConn and Creighton — all with single-digit odds — and just ahead of Tennessee (+1100) and Gonzaga (+1200).

Caesars Sportsbook has the same top three favorites of Alabama (+350), Houston (+360) and UCLA (+850). But it has Texas, UConn, Creighton, Tennessee and Gonzaga all bunched together between +1000 and +1200.

Among the longer shots down the board, three are particularly intriguing: No. 3 seed Kansas State and No. 7 seed Michigan State in the East Region, and South Region No. 5 seed San Diego State.

K-State (+3000 at FanDuel and Caesars) and Michigan State (+2500 across the board) will clash in Thursday’s first Sweet 16 matchup. The winner catches either No. 4 Tennessee or No. 9 Florida Atlantic for a berth in the Final Four.

Meanwhile, San Diego State (+4000 across the board) is the second-biggest Sweet 16 underdog. But if the Aztecs can find a way past Alabama on Friday, they would get the winner of No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 15 Princeton in the South Region final.

Win that and SDSU would face an East Region team seeded no higher than No. 4 in the Final Four.

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As of Monday morning, BetMGM reported that it has taken more bets (10.9%) and money (14.7%) on Alabama to win the title than any other team.

Despite being eliminated, Kansas is No. 2 in tickets (8.8%) and money (11.1%) at BetMGM, with Houston sitting third in both (7.2% and 9.0%).

UCLA is fourth in bets at 6.5%, followed by Texas (6.2%), ousted Purdue (6.1%) and Gonzaga (5.1%).

Behind Alabama, Kansas and Houston, Texas (7.3%) leads UCLA (6.8%) in terms of dollars wagered in BetMGM’s national championship market, followed by three eliminated teams: Purdue (5.7%), Duke (5.3%) and Arizona (4.8%).

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.