Bet on Miami to take ACC Tournament crown over Duke, Virginia

Miami perched at the top, Louisville anchoring the bottom, North Carolina mired in the middle, and Duke looking up at two teams and tied with two others.

The 2022-23 ACC season was chock-full of surprises. And you can expect to see a few more this week in Greensboro, North Carolina, site of the ACC Tournament.

All 15 teams qualified for the event, which tips off Tuesday. But in the eyes of oddsmakers, only five of those squads have a legit shot to cut down the nets and receive the league’s automatic bid to the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

Here’s an ACC Tournament betting preview, including our pick to win it.

Odds updated as of 12:15 p.m. ET on March 6.

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Duke heads 50 miles west to Greensboro as the ACC’s hottest team, having closed the regular season on a season-best six-game winning streak (3-3 ATS).

That run pushed the Blue Devils (23-8 SU, 12-19 ATS) into a three-way tie for third place, one game behind co-champions Miami and Virginia Tech.

After the tiebreaker scenarios were calculated, Duke ended up with the No. 4 seed — a huge development, as it ensured a double-bye into the tournament quarterfinals.

College basketball oddsmakers certainly put more stock in the Blue Devils’ current form than their place in the standings, making them the betting favorite in Greensboro.

However, the path to a record 22nd ACC Tournament championship — and first since 2019 — won’t be easy for first-year coach Jon Scheyer’s squad.

Yes, Duke will be laying big points in its opening-round game. From there, though, the Blue Devils likely will need to take out at least one (if not both) regular-season co-champs.

» READ MORE: Big East Tournament prediction: Bet on UConn to cut down the nets in New York

Within a two-week span, Duke went 1-1 against Miami and 0-1 against Virginia. The two defeats — including a season-worst 81-59 loss at the Hurricanes — occurred in consecutive games early last month. However, the Blue Devils haven’t tasted defeat since.

Meanwhile, Miami would be in the midst of a nine-game winning streak had it not blown a 23-point lead in a stunning 85-84 buzzer-beating home loss to Florida State on Feb. 25.

The Hurricanes (24-6, 18-12 ATS) played 10 ACC games decided by six points or less and went 5-5 SU and ATS (including a 66-64 home win over Virginia as a 3.5-point home favorite).

The Cavaliers (23-6, 10-17-1 ATS) followed that tough conference-opening loss at Miami by winning 13 of their next 16 games. However, Virginia split its final four contests and went 1-5 ATS in its last six.

Clemson, which falls behind Duke, Miami and Virginia in odds to win the ACC Tournament, won nine of its first 10 league games. However, the Tigers (22-9, 15-16 ATS) limped to a 4-5 finish, including close losses to Miami at home (78-74) and at Virginia (64-57).

The two biggest surprises in the ACC this season? Pittsburgh and North Carolina — for entirely different reasons.

The Panthers (21-10, 21-9-1 ATS) were picked 14th in the preseason coaches poll yet came within one victory of joining Miami and Virginia as co-champions.

Conversely, North Carolina was the overwhelming preseason favorite to win the ACC after its run to last year’s NCAA Tournament title game. However, the Tar Heels (19-12, 10-20-1 ATS) started the season 5-0 and barely played .500 ball from there.

As a result, UNC’s NCAA Tournament hopes are on life support. In fact, to get into the Big Dance, the Tar Heels likely need to do something in Greensboro that they’ve only done three times all season: win four straight games — and they have to do it in four straight days.

Oddsmakers definitely believe it’s possible — No. 7 seed North Carolina joins the top four seeds as the only teams with single-digit odds to win the ACC Tournament.

Interestingly, those odds are shorter than Pitt’s even though the Panthers beat North Carolina twice by a combined three points. And at Caesars Sportsbook, even No. 6 seed North Carolina State (22-9, 16-14-1 ATS) has shorter odds than Pitt.

Then again, the Panthers have been undervalued in the betting market all season — their 21-9-1 ATS record was the best in all of Division I. They’re also one of just seven ACC squads that finished above .500 ATS.

It’s tempting to take the +1600 odds that Caesars is offering on Pitt. After all, the Panthers didn’t suffer any double-digit ACC losses, and two of their six league setbacks were by a total of three points.

However, it’s tough to ignore Pitt’s poor NCAA NET (58th) and KenPom (68th) rankings.

So we’ll side with top-seeded Miami at +350 odds. Led by veteran coach Jim Larranaga, the Hurricanes are battle tested.

Yes, they have been inconsistent at times — with the Florida State debacle serving as Exhibit A. But since a 76-70 loss at Georgia Tech on Jan. 4, Miami has gone 11-4.

Those four losses? By point margins of 2 (in overtime), 2, 3 and 1.

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