College basketball predictions and picks: Best bets for Feast Week

Thanksgiving week has long been synonymous with football. But in recent years, college basketball junkies have gotten their fix thanks to ESPN’s made-for-TV “Feast Week”.

From The Bahamas to the Cayman Islands to Maui and all points in between, dozens of college basketball teams will compete this week in holiday tournaments across North America.

Two of the premiere tournaments — the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas and the Phil Knight Invitational in Portland, Oregon — feature a combined six ranked teams.

No. 3 Kansas, the defending national champs, and No. 22 Tennessee are the top two favorites to win the Battle 4 Atlantis. Meanwhile, No. 1 North Carolina is favored to outlast No. 12 Michigan State, No. 18 Alabama and No. 20 UConn in the Phil Knight Invitational.

Wisconsin, USC, North Carolina State, Dayton, Butler and BYU join Kansas and Tennessee in the eight-team Atlantis field. The Phil Knight Invitational also is an eight-team tournament, with the four Top 25 participants joined by Villanova, Oregon, Iowa State and Portland.

Who are the best bets to win these marquee Feast Week events? Here are our picks for the Battle 4 Atlantis and the Phil Knight Invitational.

Note: Odds updated as of 2:45 p.m. ET on Nov. 21.

Interestingly, Kansas is the clear favorite to win the Battle 4 Atlantis at FanDuel, which has the Jayhawks at +130 and Tennessee at +250. However, at Caesars Sportsbook, the Volunteers have the same +250 odds but the Jayhawks are priced as the No. 2 choice at +260.

In setting its Battle 4 Atlantis odds, Caesars likely was swayed by the opinion of highly respected analyst Ken Pomeroy. Pomeroy has Tennessee (2-1) slotted No. 7 in his KenPom rankings, four spots ahead of No. 10 Kansas (4-0).

This despite the fact Tennessee got clobbered by Colorado 78-66 as a 15-point favorite on Nov. 13 on a “neutral” court in Nashville. Any way you slice it, that’s a bad loss — but one made worse by the fact that Colorado lost two of its next three games, both as a favorite (66-63 to UMass and 68-55 to Boise State).

Tennessee, which followed the Colorado loss with an 81-50 rout of Florida Gulf Coast on Nov. 16, also has a tricky opening game Wednesday in The Bahamas. The Vols face Butler, which enters the tournament at 3-1 SU and ATS.

The Bulldogs’ lone blemish was a 68-62 loss at Penn State as a 5.5-point underdog. But the Nittany Lions are off to a blistering start (5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS) and up to No. 31 at KenPom.

As per usual, Butler has been leaning heavily on its defense, yielding just 57.5 points per game. That ranks in the top 40 among all Division I schools.

Now contrast that with Colorado, which held Tennessee to 25% shooting from the field (16-for-63). Even with that effort, the Buffs rank 227th defensively (70.7 points per game).

We’re going to take the value that Caesars is offering with Kansas to win the Battle 4 Atlantis. Although the Jayhawks looked shaky in Friday’s 82-76 home win over Southern Utah as a 21.5-point favorite, they’re still off to a perfect start.

That includes a 69-64 neutral-site win over Duke as a one-point underdog last Tuesday — a game that coach Bill Self sat out while serving a self-imposed four-game suspension. Self will be back on the sidelines for Wednesday’s opening-round game against North Carolina State (4-0).

Self’s presence in the Bahamas is another reason we like Kansas to win the tournament. First, the Jayhawks shouldn’t have much trouble taking down N.C. State, which is ranked No. 69 in KenPom. The Wolfpack’s four wins have come against Elon, Florida International, Campbell and Austin Peay.

Should Kansas win its first two games and meet Tennessee in the Battle 4 Atlantis final, well, we’ll take Self over chronically underachieving Vols coach Rick Barnes in any tournament format.

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We’re relying on two primary factors for this prediction on Michigan State to claim the Phil Knight Invitational, which tips off Thursday: KenPom and our own eyeballs.

Let’s start with the latter.

Staying true to form, Tom Izzo once again scheduled a gauntlet of tough opponents out of the gate. Following a season-opening rout of Northern Arizona, Izzo took his players to San Diego to face Gonzaga on an aircraft carrier, then went to Indianapolis and took Kentucky to double overtime, then returned home Friday for a battle with Villanova.

The results: A down-to-the-wire 64-63 loss to then-No. 2 Gonzaga; an 86-77 double-OT upset win over then-No. 4 Kentucky; and a 73-71 squeaker over Villanova, which was ranked No. 16 in the preseason.

The Spartans’ performance certainly got the attention of both Top 25 voters and KenPom. Michigan State on Monday vaulted from unranked to No. 12 in The Associated Press poll, while KenPom has Michigan State at No. 21.

The latter ranking still puts the Spartans below three other teams in the Phil Knight field: Alabama (No. 12 KenPom), North Carolina (No. 16) and UConn (No. 19).

But none of those teams arrive in Portland as battle tested as Michigan State.

Take, for example, Alabama. The Crimson Tide, who face the Spartans in Thursday’s opening round game, have started the season with four straight double-digit wins … against Longwood, Liberty, South Alabama and Jacksonville State. The only road game was at South Alabama, and the Tide won 65-55 as a 10.5-point favorite.

North Carolina’s first four opponents: UNC Wilmington, College of Charleston, Gardner-Webb and James Madison (all at home).

UConn’s first five foes: Stonehill, Boston University, Buffalo, UNC Wilmington and Delaware State (all at home).

Will it be easy for Michigan State to get through the Phil Knight Invitational unscathed? Probably not. In fact, we acknowledge that Alabama is a tough opening-round opponent that likely will take the court favored to beat the Spartans.

But it’s hard not to back Izzo at this generous price when we know his players already are comfortable navigating their way through tough, close games. That isn’t something you can say with confidence about any of the other Phil Knight Invitational entrants.

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