March Madness 2023 predictions: Scoring, depth will carry No. 5 Miami over No. 4 Indiana

Popular picks by many to get upset in their opening-round NCAA Tournament games, both Miami and Indiana are still very much alive and well.

However, the March Madness journey will end for one of the two squads Sunday, when the No. 5 seed Hurricanes and No. 4 seed Hoosiers collide in a second-round Midwest Region matchup in Albany, New York.

Oddsmakers give the slightest of edges to Indiana in an intriguing Big Ten vs. ACC battle. However, we’re giving the slightest of edges to the other side.

Odds updated as of 2 p.m. ET on March 18.

Miami had one of the most productive offenses in all of college basketball this season. But that offense was downright dormant for the majority of the Hurricanes’ first-round matchup with No. 12 seed Drake.

With less than six minutes remaining Friday night, Miami — which averaged nearly 80 points per game in the regular season — had just 47 points on the board. The bigger problem? Drake had 55.

However, the Canes woke up in the nick of time, closed the game on a 16-1 run and escaped with a closer-than-it-looked 63-56 victory as a 2.5-point favorite.

Indiana, on the other hand, enjoyed a stress-free first-round game against No. 13 seed Kent State. The Hoosiers led virtually wire to wire against the Mid-American Conference champions, cruising 71-60 as a 4-point favorite.

Given the results of those two contests — as well as the seeding discrepancy — it’s understandable that Indiana (23-11, 16-17-1 ATS) is getting the nod in the betting market. But the NCAA Tournament is all about matchups. And while the best player on the court Sunday will be wearing a Hoosiers jersey, the reality is Miami is the bigger, more balanced and more versatile team.

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The Hurricanes (26-7, 19-14 ATS) boast four players who average double-digit points. Their top three scorers — ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong, Jordan Miller and Norchad Omier — also combine for 20.5 rebounds, 7.3 assists and 3.7 steals per game.

Omier’s presence alone is an enormous edge for Miami. The 6-foot-7 forward wasn’t expected to play against Drake after suffering what appeared to be a serious ankle injury early in his team’s ACC Tournament quarterfinal loss to Duke. Not only did Omier suit up against the Bulldogs, he played 36 minutes, had 12 points and a game-high 14 rebounds, and keyed the Hurricanes’ late-game surge.

Omier is a legit front-court force who is a handful even for teams that can throw several big men at him. Indiana is not one of those teams. The Hoosiers’ biggest player is that aforementioned best player, 6-foot-9 forward Trayce Jackson-Davis. The fourth-year senior had 24 points, 11 rebounds and five assists against Kent State, and is in the midst of a five-game streak of tallying 24-plus points.

However, Indiana coach Mike Woodson is going to have to lean on Jackson-Davis to deal with Omier on the defensive end of the court Sunday. If that assignment comes at the expense of Jackson-Davis’ offense, the Hoosiers could be in trouble. The reason: They only have two other reliable scoring options — guard Jalen Hood-Schifino, who averaged 13.4 points per game in the regular season, and forward Race Thompson, who matched his season high with 20 points against Kent State.

The lack of consistent scoring behind Jackson-Davis explains Indiana’s recent erratic play. Even with the easy win over Kent State, the Hoosiers are still just 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS in their last nine. And one of those victories required overtime at home against Michigan.

The Hurricanes also have been a bit up and down of late. Prior to the rally against Drake, Miami lost to Duke in the ACC Tournament after playing three straight games decided by a total of five points.

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But when you look at Miami’s game logs, they still show 10 wins in the last 12 games. Also, the Duke loss comes with an asterisk: Omier got hurt a minute into the contest, yet the Canes still pushed the Blue Devils before ultimately falling 85-78.

Obviously, if the same Miami offense that struggled for 35 minutes against Drake shows up against Indiana, the Hurricanes won’t survive. But we’re betting against that, as Miami has been held under 70 points in consecutive games just once this season — and that was way back in late November.

In fact, in 11 games prior to Friday, the Canes had averaged 82.7 points.

Meanwhile, even with Jackson-Davis’ filling up the stat sheet lately, Indiana is averaging just 69.6 points in its last 10 — and hasn’t once hit 80 points during this stretch.

So we like Miami to score the mildest of upsets and return to the Sweet 16 for the second straight year. Play the Hurricanes on the moneyline at BetMGM.

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