Armed Forces Bowl prediction: Take Air Force as underdog against Baylor

The Big 12 has often waved the “No respect” flag in recent years, with only Oklahoma getting put on a pedestal with college football’s powerhouse programs.

This year, though, TCU received an invite to the College Football Playoff — the first Big 12 team other than the Sooners to nab a ticket to the party — despite losing the conference championship game.

That’s pretty good respect. So is this: Baylor lost its final three regular season games, gave up 98 points in the process, fired two defensive coaches (including the coordinator) and yet … the Bears are favored in Thursday’s Armed Forces Bowl.

The opponent: Air Force, which allowed a total of 25 points during a season-ending four-game winning streak; which led the nation in rushing; and which will notch a second straight 10-win season if it can upset a .500 Baylor outfit.

Smells like a trap, doesn’t it? If so, we’re falling right into it with our Armed Forces Bowl prediction.

Odds updated as of 11 a.m. ET on Dec. 21.

Air Force +3.5 (at at BetMGM)

There’s no comparing the conferences in which these two programs reside. Heck, just look at the November gauntlet Baylor went through: Oklahoma (road), Big 12 champion Kansas State (home), Big 12 runner-up TCU (home) and eight-win/third-place Texas (road).

Meanwhile, Air Force’s season-ending four-game winning streak started against fellow service academy Army. Then came two Mountain West Conference opponents (Colorado State and New Mexico) that won a combined five of 24 games.

Finally, the Falcons beat another Mountain West foe (San Diego State) that fields one of the most inept offenses in FBS.

So this is a case where Air Force’s 9-3 record and Baylor’s 6-6 mark are much more equal than the raw numbers suggest.

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That explains why the Bears opened as high as a 6.5-point favorite in this bowl game. And why we would be backing those Bears (especially at what is now a much lower number) … if they were playing any other Mountain West team.

The fact is, few opponents are tougher to prepare for than Air Force. Besides running a triple-option offense that has gashed opponents for 335.3 rushing yards per game, the Falcons are one of college football’s most disciplined and well-coached squads.

And despite being consistently outmanned against most schools not named Army or Navy, Air Force is a consistent winner.

Take out the 2020 pandemic season when they went 3-3, and the Falcons are 20-8 since 2019. And if Air Force takes down Baylor, it will finish with double-digit victories for the fifth time since 2014.

Sure, much of that damage was done against Army, Navy and a bunch of Mountain West stiffs. But the Falcons also are 4-1 in bowl games since 2014. That includes a 31-28 victory over ACC foe Louisville last season and a 31-21 rout of Pac-12 member Washington State in 2019.

Proving the point that Air Force’s offense is no picnic to defend: The Falcons averaged 36.2 points in those five bowl games, scoring at least 31 in each.

Which brings us to this particular matchup and the fact that Baylor’s defense flat-out stinks.

Since Oct. 1, the Bears have allowed 29 or more points to six of eight opponents. Together, those eight squads averaged 31.2 points and went 5-3.

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What about Baylor’s offense? Aside from a 31-3 home loss to Kansas State, it was fairly explosive, averaging just under 30 points in Big 12 play. However, the Bears haven’t seen a defense as stingy as Air Force’s.

Granted, facing a lot of crappy Mountain West offenses — plus Navy and Army — will do wonders for a team’s defensive stat sheet. Still, it’s tough to poke holes in these rankings and numbers for the Falcons:

As to the latter stat, only three teams scored more than 17 points against Air Force this year: Boise State (19), Nevada (20) and Utah State (34).

Also, because the Falcons run the ball so effectively and efficiently, they chew up a ton of clock, which limits their opponents’ possessions. Such a philosophy makes Air Force a difficult team to blow out.

Sure enough, the Falcons have eight losses since November 2020. Their margins of defeat: 3, 4, 6, 7 (overtime), 2 (overtime), 3, 7 and 5.

Honestly, we think Air Force wins this game outright — making the moneyline a tempting play. Rather than get greedy, though, we’ll take the points BetMGM is offering and look for the Falcons’ offense to light up the scoreboard in a bowl game once again.

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