Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction: Bet against slumping Philadelphia as home underdog

Philadelphia is slumping, which headlines our Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction and preview for Wednesday afternoon’s game.

The Phillies are 2-7 over their past nine games, and they’ve already lost this home series to the Diamondbacks. So, I’m pretty worried about the Phils (which you can read more about here), who haven’t woken up since Bryce Harper’s return.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks continue to exceed expectations behind excellent defense and elite speed.

That said, I’m betting the Diamondbacks rally behind their Ace in this game.

Odds via FanDuel, current at time of writing and subject to change.

Zac Gallen is too good.

Sure, he’s coming off four consecutive uncharacteristic starts, but he’s too good to be held down for long. His Stuff+ sits at 107, in line with the past two seasons. The balls haven’t bounced his way recently (.347 BABIP, 56.3% strand during this poor stretch).

I think Gallen is due for a bounce-back performance, and the Phillies are a good matchup for him.

As mentioned, the Phillies lineup isn’t hitting. They rank 26th in wRC+ since Harper’s return on May 2, failing to help their batted-ball profile (27th in xwOBA, at .307).

Gallen has also overwhelmed this lineup in the past. Excluding one blowup start last season, Gallen has tossed 17 scoreless innings over three career starts against the Phils, racking up 19 strikeouts to six walks.

It’s also worth mentioning that Harper’s reappearance has had devastating defensive results, as Kyle Schwarber (-7 Outs Above Average) and Nick Castellanos (-1 OAA) are forced to shag more balls in the outfield. Those problems become clearer when directly contrasted against the Diamondbacks (the Snakes are a top-five defense by every metric).

The Diamondbacks aren’t a force of nature in the batter’s box, but they hold their own, ranking 13th in wRC+ over the past two weeks. They also compensate in the form of smart baserunning (3.7 BsR, seventh in MLB) and stolen bases (40, ninth in MLB).

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Hopefully, the Snakes can take advantage of a still-not-stretched-out Ranger Suarez. The Phillies southpaw started the season on the IL, so he’s only made two starts.

Suarez allowed seven combined runs on only six combined innings in those two starts. Suarez is due for some positive regression (4.68 expected ERA), but that would still make him the lesser of the two starters during Wednesday’s game.

More generally speaking: I don’t trust the Phillies (again, read more here). There are too many inconsistencies, and it’ll be hard for this underwhelming lineup to overcome a vast starting pitching disadvantage.

Meanwhile, I trust the Diamondbacks. They have a formula for winning, and having an Ace like Gallen on the mound makes that job much easier (especially considering the matchup).

However, I give the Phils the bullpen advantage, so I’d rather stay away from the full-game ML and bet the Snakes behind Gallen in the first half.

Hopefully, Arizona can pick up a few early runs off of Suarez while Gallen gets back into form, and we can move on to the next afternoon game following five sweat-free innings.

(1:05 p.m. ET, MLB Network)

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