March Madness 2023 predictions: Bet on No. 5 Miami to take care of business vs. No. 12 Drake

A year after making a run to the Elite Eight for the first time in program history — and doing so as a No. 10 seed — Miami is back in the NCAA Tournament.

The Hurricanes return with their highest seed (No. 5) since 2016, an experienced roster led by the ACC Player of the Year, a veteran coach who’s in his 12th season with the team and an ACC regular season championship.

But they also return without their best front-court player, a 6-foot-7 two-way force who suffered a leg injury in last week’s ACC Tournament.

That injury is the primary reason Miami opened as — and barely remains — a slim favorite against No. 12 seed Drake in Friday’s West Region first-round matchup in Albany, N.Y.

But while the majority of the wagering community is fading the favorite in this contest, we have faith in the Hurricanes — at least for the moment.

Odds updated as of 7:30 p.m. ET on March 15.

On Feb. 21, Miami went to Virginia Tech and extended its winning streak to seven with a 76-70 victory over the Hokies as a 3-point road underdog.

At that point, we were all-in on the Hurricanes (25-7, 18-14 ATS) as a legit Final Four contender.

Then the engine on Miami’s bandwagon began to misfire. First came a monumental collapse against ACC bottom-feeder Florida State, which overcame a 23-point halftime deficit in South Beach and won 85-84 on a buzzer-beater.

The Hurricanes followed that debacle with skin-of-their-teeth victories over Pitt (78-76 as a 7.5-home favorite in the regular-season finale) and Wake Forest (74-72 as a 7-point favorite in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals).

Then 66 seconds into the ACC Tournament semifinals against Duke, big man Norchard Omier stepped on a Blue Devils player’s foot, badly twisting his ankle.

Omier left the game, went to the locker room and returned to the court on crutches with his lower leg heavily wrapped.

Without their leading rebounder, the Canes put up a valiant fight against Duke, but fell 85-78 (while getting out-boarded 33-21).

» READ MORE: Take a shot on fourth-seeded UConn to emerge from tough West region

As of midweek, Omier — who averaged a double-double (14.1 points, 10.0 rebounds) during the regular season — hadn’t officially been ruled out of Friday’s game against Drake. But he’s not playing.

And if in fact Omier’s season is done, Miami’s Final Four chances likely are, too — he’s that important.

However, we have confidence the Canes can find a way to at least get past Drake, which punched its March Madness ticket by winning the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament.

The Bulldogs (27-7, 16-17 ATS) are a solid team that is 16-2 since Jan. 7. They’re also very balanced with both an above-average offense (75.6 points per game, 46.6% shooting) and defense (64.8 ppg allowed, 41.2% shooting ).

Four of Drake’s five starters shoot 35% or better from 3-point land and better than 81% from the free-throw line. Meanwhile, the other starter — 6-foot-10 senior and former Seton Hall player Darnell Brodie — averages 8.7 points and a team-high 7.1 rebounds.

But here’s the thing about all those impressive numbers: They weren’t accumulated against quality competition.

In addition to playing in the Missouri Valley, which is power-rated as the 13th best conference in Division I, the Bulldogs faced just one team from an elite league. That team was Mississippi State, and Drake won that game 58-52 as a 5-point underdog.

Quality victory, for sure. But Mississippi State was very flawed offensively, as we saw in its 60-59 First Four loss to Pitt on Tuesday.

The Hurricanes? They can score — even without Omier.

Led by senior guard, leading scorer and ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong, Miami averages 79.4 points per contest — tied for 25th nationally and tops among all ACC teams.

And like Drake, Miami can hit the 3-ball — five of its top six scorers shoot between 35.4% and 41.6% from long distance. The only exception? Omier.

Yes, the Canes haven’t won a game by more than a bucket since going to Virginia Tech nearly a month ago. And yes, they’re going to miss their big man. But the ACC regular-season co-champs have enough depth to get it done against a pesky — but outmatched — No. 12 seed.

You know what else the Hurricanes have? A lot of motivation to prove all their doubters wrong — which is an intangible that shouldn’t be underestimated in March.

» READ MORE: Bet on these NCAA Tournament first-round upsets in each region

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