Bet on these NCAA Tournament first-round upsets in each region

Bracket-busting first-round NCAA Tournament upsets have become as much of a March tradition as spring break, daylight savings time and green beer.

Rest assured, the 2023 NCAA Tournament will be no different. And in a season that’s been called “wide open” since way back in November, there’s a good chance we’re headed for an historic number of early March Madness shockers.

The good news for fans of No. 1 seeds Alabama, Houston, Kansas and Purdue? Your teams almost certainly will make it to the weekend.

As for fans of the other 60 teams that will play Thursday and Friday? Brace yourselves, because chaos is coming.

Here are our March Madness predictions for first-round upsets in each region.

Odds updated as of 1 p.m. ET on March 13.

Analysis: Virginia continues to hold the dubious distinction of being the only No. 1 seed to ever lose a first-round game — the Cavaliers fell 74-54 to No. 16 UMBC back in 2018. Virginia definitively avenged that loss the following year when it won the national championship.

Coach Tony Bennett’s squad didn’t get a chance to defend its title when the 2020 NCAA Tournament was canceled because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Then it bowed out in the first round in 2021 as a No. 4 seed and failed to get a Big Dance invite last year.

Now they’re back following a solid 25-7 campaign (12-18-1 ATS) that included a share of the ACC regular season championship with Miami. The reward? A first-round date with Furman, the Southern Conference champions who have won six in a row, 14 of 15 and 21 of 24.

Granted, the Paladins don’t have a quality victory on their ledger — in fact, they suffered an ugly 92-73 nonconference loss at North Carolina State, an ACC rival that Virginia pummeled 63-50 on Feb. 7.

But styles make fights in March, and Furman’s up-tempo style could be a big problem for the defensive-minded Cavaliers.

The Paladins (27-7, 18-13 ATS) average 82.2 points per game — 11th best in the nation. They also rank 14th in field goal shooting, draining 48.6% of their shots.

It might take some time for Furman to figure out Virginia’s 11th-ranked scoring defense. But this smells like a game that’s going down to the wire — and in games like that, we like backing the team that’s better at putting the ball through the hoop.

» READ MORE: March Madness 2023: NCAA men’s basketball tournament TV schedule, game times and announcers

Analysis: This looks like more of a No. 8 vs. No. 9 clash than No. 6 vs. No. 11.

Beyond the fact that both teams are 21-11, both played in competitive conferences (Providence in the Big East; Kentucky in the SEC). Both went one-and-done in their respective conference tournaments. And both had choppy seasons.

To the latter point, the Friars started out 17-5 but lost six of their final 11. Kentucky never lost more than two games in a row, but the Wildcats’ longest winning streak was only four games (accomplished four different times).

In fairness to Kentucky, seven of its first eight defeats were to NCAA Tournament teams (including Kansas, UCLA and Gonzaga, the top three seeds in the West Region). However, the Wildcats’ last three defeats were to Georgia and Vanderbilt (twice). They also had a 71-68 home loss to lowly South Carolina as a 19.5-point favorite.

Providence isn’t as good as last year’s team that advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1997. And its current three-game losing skid is a tad concerning. So, too, is the fact that the Friars don’t have a true big man to put on Kentucky star Oscar Tschiebwe, the 2022 NCAA Player of the Year.

But Providence can score (78.5 points per game) and offers a balanced attack, with five double-digit scorers.

Conversely, the Wildcats are basically a three-man team. Tshiebwe (team-high 16.4 ppg), fellow forward Jacob Toppin (14.2 ppg) and guard Antonio Reeves (12.3 ppg) combine to average more than 57% of Kentucky’s 75.1 points per outing.

If the Friars can get at least one of that trio in foul trouble, they’ll be in prime position to spring an upset.

Analysis: Picking not one but two No. 13 seeds to advance to the Round of 32 might seem like a reach. After all, No. 13 seeds are 28-100 in the modern era of the NCAA Tournament (since 1985).

However, 19 of those 28 upsets have come this century — including five since 2018.

Interestingly, the Mid-American Conference champion is responsible for two of those five recent stunners (Buffalo over Arizona in 2018; Ohio over Virginia in 2021). We expect MAC Tournament champion Kent State to join that list and win its first NCAA Tournament game since the 2001-02 squad — led by future NFL Hall of Fame tight end Antonio Gates — made a run to the Elite Eight.

The Golden Flashes (28-6, 21-10-1 ATS) went 15-3 in the MAC. But more impressive than that was their three nonconference defeats. During a two-week span beginning in late November, Kent State traveled to College of Charleston, Houston and Gonzaga and lost by respective margins of 2, 5 and 7 points. Those three NCAA Tournament teams are a combined 90-11 this season.

Indiana (21-11, 15-17-1 ATS) finished tied for second in the ultra-competitive Big Ten (which has eight March Madness entrants). But the Hoosiers were inconsistent down the stretch, alternating wins and losses in their last nine games.

Yes, that includes a 79-71 win at East Region No. 1 seed Purdue (which followed a 79-74 home win over the Boilermakers). But it also includes a 90-68 home loss to Iowa.

What is Iowa’s strength? Scoring. What does Kent State do well? Score. The Golden Flashes have put up at least 70 points in 18 of their last 19 games — including 79 points or more in 10 of the last 16.

Kent State also plays tremendous defense. Just ask Gonzaga and Houston. The Bulldogs, who led the nation in scoring at 88 ppg, beat Kent State 73-66. Nine days earlier, the Cougars scored just 49 in their five-point home win over the Flashes.

Analysis: Among the 28 first-round games currently on the betting board, this one has the lowest total (121.5 points at FanDuel).

So expect VCU (26-7, 17-15-1 ATS) and Saint Mary’s (26-7, 17-13-2 ATS) to engage in a 40-minute defensive slugfest.

Why should you bet on the Atlantic 10 champion Rams to come out on top? Well, for one thing, they’ve come out on top in 22 of 25 games since Dec. 11. They also enter the tournament on a nine-game winning streak, with six of the last seven victories being double-digit blowouts.

No, VCU hasn’t faced a lot of stiff competition during its lengthy run. But the same can be said for Saint Mary’s and its 20-3 hot streak.

The Gaels defeated Mountain West Conference champion and East Region No. 5 seed San Diego State on a neutral court back on Dec. 10. And nearly two months later, they needed overtime to knock off Gonzaga at home.

That’s all the quality wins that Saint Mary’s has posted this year. And the Gonzaga victory rings hollow after the Gaels lost a pair of rematches, including a 77-51 beatdown in the West Coast Conference Tournament championship game back on March 7.

Which brings us to another reason why we think VCU is the right side in this one: Saint Mary’s has played just three times since Feb. 24 (losing twice to Gonzaga). The Rams have played twice as many games during this time and won them all. They also covered in five of those contests, which is part of a 7-1 ATS run.

The Gaels? They’re 4-7 ATS in their last 11.

Those two records suggest the betting market has been overvaluing Saint Mary’s and undervaluing VCU. We think that’s the case again in this first-round battle between similar opponents.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.