Take a shot on fourth-seeded UConn to emerge from tough West region

It’s been 16 years since a men’s basketball national champion successfully defended its crown. And it’s been exactly two decades since the Kansas Jayhawks so much as reached back-to-back Final Fours.

So the odds were already stacked against last year’s champs before the NCAA Tournament bracket came out.

Now? Well, the Jayhawks better get fitted for some body armor, because they’re going to have to tiptoe around multiple landmines to escape the loaded West Region and earn a trip to Houston, site of this 2023 Final Four.

Here’s a look at odds to win the West Region and how we’re attacking it from a wagering perspective.

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook updated as of 5 a.m. ET on March 14.

Kansas followed up its 2022 national title by going 27-7.

The Jayhawks won the outright regular season championship in the brutal Big 12; they made it to the Big 12 Tournament title game without their head coach; and they finished with three more Quad 1 victories (17) than any other team.

So why did Kansas get stuck in the same region as UCLA? And Gonzaga? And UConn? And Saint Mary’s? And Big 12 rival TCU?

Those are questions the NCAA Tournament selection committee members would have to answer — although we can take a pretty good guess at the response: “Hey, that’s just the way the ball bounced.”

Is it fair? No. But at this point, all the Jayhawks can do is walk into the jungle and hope they don’t come out the other side bloodied and bruised.

» READ MORE: SEC run made Alabama the clear team to beat in the NCAA Tournament’s South region

Did we mention how stacked the West Region is? That’s why we’re not recommending a longer shot than TCU — there’s just no conceivable way a bracket with this many quality teams gets blown up by a Cinderella.

Heck, even recommending the sixth-seeded Horned Frogs seems like a stretch. But we’ll do so anyway because of the double-digit odds value. And because TCU has enough pieces in place to win four tough games over two weekends.

As a Big 12 member, the Horned Frogs are obviously battle tested. They defeated every league opponent at least once except for Iowa State. And they have the type of player in leading scorer Mike Miles Jr. who can put a team on his back and carry it to four straight wins — and even more.

The primary concern with TCU? It hasn’t won more than two games in a row since starting the season 13-1. The Horned Frogs are just 8-11 since that hot start.

However, Miles and his team-high 18.5 points per game missed all or most of five of those 11 defeats while recovering from an injury.

Is it unlikely TCU comes out of this region? Yes. Inconceivable? Not at all.

» READ MORE: Bet on Duke to emerge from a crowded East region and get back to the Final Four

Saint Mary’s has taken a lot of slings since a horrific showing against Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference title game (77-51 loss).

But we’re not here to pile on, because we actually believe the Gaels are capable of doing some damage in this region. Unfortunately, they’re also capable of getting bounced early (as you’ll soon see).

More than anything, though, this fade recommendation is about the odds — given the quality at the top of the West bracket, Saint Mary’s odds to win the region should be double what they are.

Put it this way: If seeding holds up, the Gaels would have to defeat a really good VCU team, then No. 4 UConn and then No. 1 Kansas — and that’s just to get to the regional final. Once there, the opponent almost certainly would be No. 2 UCLA, No. 3 Gonzaga or TCU.

Saint Mary’s is good … but not that good.

» READ MORE: Even with Sasser injury, count on Houston to reach the Final Four out of the Midwest region

You like points? You’ve come to the right game, as Gonzaga and Grand Canyon have the firepower to turn this into an NBA-type of shootout.

The Zags lead the nation in scoring at 88 points per game — an average that has ticked up to 92.3 points during the team’s nine-game winning streak.

Meanwhile, the Antelopes have won nine of 10 and put up 85.9 points in the nine victories.

And that’s where the intrigue lies in this matchup. Because Gonzaga should have no trouble disposing of an opponent that was the No. 5 seed in the Western Athletic Conference Tournament.

What we’re interested in is, will these teams eclipse the highest first-round total on the betting board?

» READ MORE: March Madness brackets: NCAA Tournament predictions, upsets and sleepers

As we alluded to in our NCAA Tournament first-round upsets recommendations, the selection committee underseeded — and oddsmakers are undervaluing — VCU.

The latter is no surprise, as the betting market has been off on the Rams for more than two months. That’s why they’re 16-6-1 ATS since Jan. 7 (including 7-1 ATS in the last eight games).

As you’re probably aware, VCU and Saint Mary’s bring it big-time defensively. Because of that, this game is the polar opposite of Gonzaga-Grand Canyon — the 123-point total is the second-lowest on the first-round board.

Should a low-scoring game materialize (and we think it will), the Rams should at least be in position to steal their 10th consecutive victory — and first as an underdog.

We drank the Kool-Aid with UConn in the Big East Tournament. Unfortunately, we drank it from a dribble glass and ended up with a stained shirt, as the Huskies bowed out in the semifinals against eventual champion Marquette.

Well, we’re going back for seconds in supporting the team that’s bunched with the other top three seeds in odds to win this brutally tough region.

Our logic: UConn is better than it showed in its 70-68 loss to Marquette, and we believe that result was a wake-up call.

Also, the Huskies not only match up well against all the big boys in the West Region, but they aren’t pigeonholed into a particular style. They can win a low-scoring slugfest against UCLA, a high-flying affair against Gonzaga or a game in the 70s against Kansas.

Finally, UConn is built for sustained success. We saw as much during its 14-0 start and its six-game winning streak that preceded the disappointing Marquette defeat.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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