Marlins vs. Phillies predictions: Expect another offensive outburst Wednesday at Citizens Bank Park

Like your baseball with a heaping helping of offense? The Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins have been happy to oblige this week.

In the first two games of a three-game set that concludes Wednesday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park, the NL East rivals have combined for 30 runs, 54 hits (including 10 doubles, two triples and seven home runs), and one cycle.

The latter came courtesy of Miami second baseman Luis Arraez, who collected the first cycle in Marlins history Tuesday night.

What should bettors expect Wednesday when two starting pitchers with ERAs north of 5.00 toe the rubber? In 80-degree weather? With brisk winds blowing toward right field?

You guessed it: more runs — a lot more runs.

Odds updated as of noon ET on April 12.

Citizens Bank Park has long been known as one of the most offensive friendly venues in all of baseball. And it’s certainly played like that the last three days, with the Phillies and their visitors tallying double-digit run totals each time out.

Final scores: 6-4, 15-3 and 8-4.

All three contests soared over the posted total despite the presence of multiple high-end starting pitchers, including Phillies ace Aaron Nola and Marlins ace (and reigning National League Cy Young winner) Sandy Alcantara.

Another top-flight hurler will be on the bump Wednesday as Zack Wheeler takes the ball for Philadelphia. Except the veteran right-hander has been anything but top-flight in his first two starts of 2023.

Wheeler has allowed seven runs (six earned) and 16 baserunners (12 hits, four walks) in 9 2/3 innings.

Granted, he was sharper in his last outing Friday when he limited the Reds to two runs in 5 1/3 frames after giving up five runs in Texas on April 1. But Wheeler allowed eight Reds to reach base (five hits, three walks), and he brings a 5.59 ERA into Wednesday’s start. Which is actually better than the 5.79 ERA that he posted in the opening month of the 2022 season.

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Miami will counter Wheeler with its own right-hander, Edward Cabrera. He’s given up “just” four runs and two hits in his first two starts … but he lasted a total of 6 2/3 innings. And he issued a whopping 13 walks.

Both outings were against the Mets, and the Marlins lost both by scores of 6-2 (home) and 9-3 (road). In the latter contest, Cabrera walked seven in just 2 2/3 innings.

So we’ve got two hot offenses — the Marlins have scored 18 runs in their last three games; the Phillies have tallied 23 in their last three — facing two starting pitchers with bloated numbers. On a warm late afternoon. In a hitters’ ballpark.

Need more convincing that the Over is the play in this one? These stats should do the trick: 7.08 and 6.02. Those are Philly’s and Miami’s respective bullpen ERAs so far this season.

Phillies relievers own the worst ERA in all of baseball. The Marlins’ bullpen ranks 27th.

So even if Wheeler pitches to his capabilities and Cabrera fixes his control issues, the guys behind both starters aren’t likely to put a roadblock in front of home plate.

Look for a fourth straight game with double-digit runs at Citizens Bank Park — and a fourth straight Over for both teams.

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