Nets vs. 76ers prediction: Bet on Philly to cover big number in Game 2

The Philadelphia 76ers settled the age-old “rest vs. rust” debate in Game 1 of their best-of-7 opening round playoff series against the Brooklyn Nets.

And they settled it from behind the 3-point arc — over and over and over again.

After not playing a meaningful basketball game in more than a week, Philadelphia hit the Wells Fargo Center court Saturday afternoon and put on a shooting clinic, draining a franchise playoff record 21 shots from 3-point range on the way to a 121-101 victory.

The Sixers easily cashed as an 8.5-point home favorite, improving to 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS against Brooklyn this season.

A sixth consecutive win over the Nets seems like a foregone conclusion, given that oddsmakers have Philadelphia as a double-digit favorite for Monday’s Game 2. A fifth point-spread cover against Brooklyn seems inevitable, too. Because if there’s one NBA team that has excelled as a big chalk this season, it’s the 76ers.

Odds updated as of 10:45 a.m. ET on April 16.

There are two ways to view the result of Game 1 of the Nets-Sixers series when handicapping Game 2.

The first: Philadelphia was nearly flawless Saturday. It outscored the Nets in all four quarters while shooting 47% from the field, 49% from long range and making all 16 free throws. The Sixers also had 32 assists on 42 made baskets and forced twice as many turnovers (16) as they committed (eight).

The second: Brooklyn turned in an even better shooting performance than the Sixers, nailing 56% of its attempts. The Nets also were on-target from deep (13-for-29), they only lost the rebounding battle 38-35, and they had four players score in double figures — with guard Mikal Bridges tallying a game-high 30 points.

And yet Brooklyn still got drubbed by 20 points.

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In other words, the 76ers aren’t making three touchdowns worth of 3-pointers in Game 2. Nor are they likely to make every free throw, have a 2-to-1 edge in the turnover department, rack up 32 assists or have a 14-5 advantage on the offensive glass.

But it’s just as difficult to envision the Nets playing better Monday night than they did Saturday. And again, they lost Game 1 by a margin that’s double the Game 2 point spread.

As for that point spread, here’s a fun fact: Philadelphia is 8-2-1 ATS this season when favored by double digits. That includes a 4-0-1 ATS mark since Jan. 30.

Those five results:

The counterargument, of course, is that those five victories all came against non-playoff teams. And Brooklyn isn’t just a playoff team but the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference.

True enough. But the Sixers have proven all season that they’re a bad matchup for the Nets — no matter the Nets’ roster makeup.

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The only time Brooklyn has covered against Philadelphia this season: A 137-133 loss at Wells Fargo Center on Jan. 25 as a 7.5-point underdog.

The only reason the Nets cashed in that contest? They shot a blistering 64% from the field, including 54% from 3-point range (14-for-26). They also got 87 points from Kyrie Irving (32), Seth Curry (30) and Nic Claxton (25).

Irving, of course, is gone, while Curry and Claxton combined for 15 points in Game 1.

Speaking of Game 1 player stats, here’s another: 76ers center Joel Embiid, the presumptive 2022-23 NBA MVP, took just 15 shots Saturday, made seven and finished with 26 points and just five rebounds in 33 minutes.

And yet Embiid’s team still prevailed 121-101.

Bottom line: We thought Philadelphia would come out a bit rusty in Game 1, so we took the points with the Nets. That turned out to be a terrible call — one we’re not making again.

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