Back underdog 76ers picking up road win vs. Heat Thursday

The Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat are two teams fighting to avoid the play-in tournament, making Thursday’s game of the utmost importance with just a handful of games remaining.

Oddsmakers on the best NBA betting sites universally have the 76ers as underdogs. But with Joel Embiid back in the lineup, the 76ers will come out on top in this game. FanDuel has the best odds of them all at +124.

I was worried how Embiid would do coming off a serious injury, but he dropped 24 points and added 13 combined assists and rebounds in limited minutes. If Embiid is as healthy as he looked against the Thunder, the 76ers are going to be a threat in more games than not.

Tyrese Maxey’s injury is concerning and a limiting factor against Miami, but Cameron Payne has played well filling in for him. Kyle Lowry’s play as of late is a concern, but his offensive limitations are somewhat offset in this matchup by Tyler Herro remaining out for Miami.

Kelly Oubre Jr. and Tobias Harris will need to step up with a matchup against Jimmy Butler. Their inconsistent play regularly decides the outcome of their games. Miami isn’t an easy matchup by any means.

As for the Heat, Herro has been out since mid February and his 20.8 points per game have been sorely missed. Thankfully for Miami, Bam Adebayo has stepped up his offensive game this season and has even added occasional three point shooting to his arsenal.

Similarly to Philly, Miami has a couple of players who carry a lot of burden on their shoulders in relation to whether their team wins or not. Miami’s players in that department are Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Caleb Martin.

Jaquez was phenomenal early in the season but has struggled as of late, especially when it comes to his three point shooting. Martin is an equally perplexing case, as it was expected he’d take the next step but instead he’s been relatively disappointing, and has struggled against the 76ers this year.

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I think Embiid will get the better of Adebayo in this game, and that’s one of the biggest reasons I’m picking Philadelphia’s moneyline. I also think if Maxey (who is questionable as of time of publish) suits up, that makes the 76ers hard to keep up with and guard.

I expect Butler to have a strong performance, as he’s been playing better as of late and plays better the later in the season it gets. But between the two teams, the 76ers have more effective iso scorers and shooters in my book, especially due to Herro being out.

Defensively I don’t see these teams being too different, but I can see this being a low-scoring game. Both teams rank top 10 in points per game allowed, and the 76ers being able to stay top 10 without Embiid gives me confidence they’ll pick up where they left off.

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