NFL MVP Odds: Eagles’ Hurts, Chiefs’ Mahomes in two-man battle

Heading down the home stretch of the regular season, the Philadelphia Eagles own an NFL-best 11-1 record, thanks in large part to the play of quarterback Jalen Hurts.

The Kansas City Chiefs are tied for the best record in the AFC at 9-3, thanks in large part to the play of quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

So of course Hurts and Mahomes are the frontrunners in the 2022-23 NFL MVP odds market. And of course, given his team’s superior record, Hurts currently leads Mahomes in the MVP race.

Eh, not so fast on that last one.

Oddsmakers still have Mahomes in front of Hurts — even if just by a nose — going into Week 14. But at least one sportsbook is starting to see a ton of support for Philadelphia’s multi-talented signal caller.

Here’s an updated look at NFL MVP odds, as well as the favorites to win NFL Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year honors.

Note: All odds updated as of 2 p.m. ET on Dec. 7.

As you can see, five players technically remain in the hunt for the NFL’s top individual award. Realistically? It’s down to a two-man battle between Hurts and Mahomes.

And that battle got tighter after Hurts led the Eagles to Sunday’s 35-10 rout of Tennessee a few hours before Mahomes and the Chiefs lost 27-24 at Cincinnati.

While Hurts lit up the Titans’ secondary (29-for-38, 380 yards, three touchdowns), Mahomes had a pedestrian performance against the Bengals (16-for-27, 223 yards, one TD).

In the aftermath, BetMGM moved Hurts’ NFL MVP odds from +325 (last week) to +150 and dropped Mahomes from the -140 odds-on favorite to +120.

How do the two quarterbacks compare statistically?

Not surprisingly given the nature of the two offenses, Mahomes has the gaudier passing numbers. He leads the NFL with 3,808 yards and 30 touchdowns. By comparison, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow (3,446) and Buffalo’s Josh Allen (3,406) rank right behind Mahomes and yards, and both are tied for second in touchdowns (25).

However, Hurts has the superior completion rate (68.1%, tied for fourth in the league). And he’s thrown five fewer interceptions (three) than Mahomes (eight).

» READ MORE: Super Bowl odds: Eagles remain third choice to win NFL title

Of course what really has Hurts in the running for MVP— besides the Eagles’ record — are his legs. He has 609 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns, with the latter figure ranking ninth in the league.

Throw in his passing numbers (2,940 yards and 20 TDs), and Hurts has produced nearly 3,550 total yards of offense and accounted for 29 touchdowns.

He also has a distinct edge over Mahomes in one key stat: His 108.3 quarterback rating is third best in the league. Mahomes (104.9) is fourth.

Bottom line: If both quarterbacks continue on their current pace and if Philadelphia finishes with a better record than Kansas City, it’s difficult to envision voters not siding with Hurts.

Many bettors certainly believe that to be true, as BetMGM publicist John Ewing reported this week that of all the new NFL MVP bets placed at the sportsbook from Sunday through midday Monday, 40% were on Hurts.

Still, Mahomes remains BetMGM’s biggest liability. As of Monday, more than 27% of all NFL MVP dollars wagered at the book were on Mahomes. The 2018 MVP ranks second in ticket count at 14.7%, right behind Allen at 15.9%.

Meanwhile, Hurts (7.1%) is third in money at BetMGM behind Allen (23.0%), and he’s fourth in tickets (8.1%).

» READ MORE: Week 14 NFL lines: Eagles open as sizable favorites vs. Giants

As we’ve previously noted, the NFL MVP always goes to an offensive player (and in recent years, usually a quarterback). But that doesn’t mean the winner is a lock to take home the NFL Offensive Player of the Year award.

So it shouldn’t be a surprise that neither Hurts nor Mahomes are at the top of BetMGM’s Offensive Player of the Year odds board.

That position continues to be occupied by Tyreek Hill. The Miami Dolphins wide receiver, who leads the league in both receptions (96) and receiving yards (1,379 yards), dropped from +300 last week to +190.

Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs is second in receptions (91) and third in yards (1,202), while Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson is third in receptions (88) and second in yards (1,277).

Diggs leads all three — and ranks third in the league — with 10 touchdowns. That’s just one fewer than Jefferson (six) and Hill (five) combined. Yet Diggs (+1800) is tied for fifth in the Offensive Player of the Year odds market, while Jefferson (+300) is third.

Hurts sits between Hill and Jefferson. He moved from +350 last week to his current price of +250 at BetMGM.

Mahomes (+950) slots fourth, followed by Diggs and Mahomes’ top target, Travis Kelce. Kansas City’s All-Pro tight end is tied for the league lead with 12 touchdowns and ranks sixth with 968 receiving yards.

As of Monday, Jefferson was third in tickets (13.4%) and second in money (16.5%) at BetMGM, while Hill was first in money (20.6%) and second in tickets (7.0%).

Mahomes (6.0%) and Hurts (4.7%) are fourth and fifth, respectively, in ticket count. But only 2.7% of all money wagered at BetMGM to win Offensive Player of the Year is on Hurts.

» READ MORE: Eagles for Super Bowl? Jalen Hurts for MVP? Jonathan Gannon for head coach? It’s all happening.

Looking for an Offensive Player of the Year dark horse? Keep an eye on Josh Jacobs.

The Las Vegas Raiders’ running back leads the NFL with 1,303 rushing yards. His next closest pursuer: Cleveland’s Nick Chubb (1,119 yards). Jacobs also is tied for second with 10 rushing touchdowns.

Obviously, with six contenders in front of him at BetMGM, Jacobs has a steep hill to climb. But with an 1,800-yard rushing season within reach, his +2000 odds are enticing.

When we examined NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds a month ago, Dallas Cowboys pass-rushing demon Micah Parsons was the clear favorite to claim the honor.

Today? Parsons’ odds have doubled. However, the guy right behind him has gained a ton of ground.

In the first week of November, Parsons was -250 at BetMGM to win the same award for which he finished second last season. At that time, San Francisco sack specialist Nick Bosa was directly behind Parsons at +900.

Then prior to Week 13, Parsons was all the way out to -1400 in the Defensive Player of the Year odds market, with Bosa at +1100.

Now Parsons is back down to -500, while Bosa’s price has shrunk to +250.

That discrepancy seems strange considering Bosa (14.5) has more sacks than Parsons (12) despite playing one fewer game.

Parsons, though, leads in tackles (52-36) and has three forced fumbles, one of which he returned for a touchdown. Bosa has just one forced fumble.

But the biggest reason Parsons is such a huge favorite at BetMGM has nothing to do with those numbers so much as these: Nearly 22% of all Defensive Player of the Year tickets written and nearly 30% of all dollars at BetMGM are on Parsons.

As such, the Cowboys’ playmaker is the sportsbook’s biggest liability. In other words, BetMGM doesn’t want any more action on Parsons — which is why his odds are through the roof.

Then again, BetMGM would rather not see Bosa win the award either, as he’s second in tickets (10.8%) and money (22.0%).

In all likelihood, though, BetMGM is going to be paying out on one of the two players. Because Parsons vs. Bosa for NFL Defensive Player of the Year is a far less competitive two-man race than Mahomes vs. Hurts for NFL MVP.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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