NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: Still value on Olave, Pickett ahead of Week 4

We knew this year’s NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race would be unlike many we’ve seen in recent years due to the lack of marquee quarterbacks in the rookie class. Sure enough, it’s been a wild race. Receivers have dominated the board, while this year’s top rookie quarterback is yet to take a snap.

There’s still value on that passer and a few other players who have either shown promising starts or are due for late-season surges. Here are a few names to watch out for through the first few weeks, with odds courtesy of BetMGM:

It should come as no surprise to see Olave’s name atop the oddsboard after his hot start to the season. And there’s a strong argument to be made that he should be the outright favorite.

The Saints receiver paces all rookies in receiving yards (268) after his breakout Week 3 performance, when he converted a whopping 13 targets into nine catches for 147 yards – including a 49-yard bomb in the second quarter, his second such catch in as many weeks. Those two were among Olave’s 10 deep targets on the year, most in the NFL, and his four deep receptions rank second among all receivers.

His stat line would look even better if Jameis Winston had connected on a few deep targets the week before, but Olave is still the jewel of this class thus far even with zero touchdowns on the year. Those will come over time, as might some hardware for the former Ohio State star.

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There’s a reason that Pickett’s odds haven’t really moved despite not playing a snap to this point: the moment the Steelers quarterback makes his NFL debut, his price will skyrocket.

That feels more like “when” than “if” thanks to the shoddy play of Pittsburgh starter Mitch Trubisky, who ranks 22nd in QBR (44.0) and 29th in passer rating (77.7) through the first three weeks of the season. It’s not like the Steelers are all that committed to him. Trubisky is set to make just over $1 million this year, which escalates if he plays at least 60% of the team’s snaps.

Pittsburgh is actually financially incentivized to not play Trubisky if he isn’t getting the job done, all while his heir apparent sits idly on the bench. Pickett’s time will come, and without a clear front-runner in this year’s rookie class, I’d be buying his stock earlier rather than later.

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I couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw Willis’ odds through the first three weeks. Have oddsmakers lost their minds?

This isn’t about how good the former Liberty quarterback is, though he clearly has the tools to succeed. This is all about opportunity. The Titans have looked lifeless amid a 1-2 start to the season, and starter Ryan Tannehill has been distinctly below-average so far – to the point that the team even put Willis into the game late in its Week 2 loss to the Bills.

Much like Pickett, it feels like Willis’ time could be coming soon. And while the risk is much higher with Willis, the payoff at this price is ridiculous. Whether you’re a believer in the third-rounder or not, these odds are simply too juicy to ignore.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.