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The case for Bijan Robinson to lead the NFL in rushing yards during his rookie season

Bijan Robinson is one of the best running back prospects in years and will play in an efficient, run-happy offense.

Bijan Robinson of the Texas Longhorns rushes for a touchdown in the first half against the Baylor Bears at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on November 25, 2022 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
Bijan Robinson of the Texas Longhorns rushes for a touchdown in the first half against the Baylor Bears at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on November 25, 2022 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)Read moreTim Warner / Getty Images
    by Tanner McGrath, Action Network
    Published 

The best part about making NFL predictions is digging into all the prop markets. You can find great value in non-major markets, like the market for who will lead the NFL in rushing yards.

I did a deep dive into this market earlier this week, and I’m here to share all the exciting nuggets I found.

Ultimately, I’m advocating that you bet on a talented rookie running back to lead the way.

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NFL predictions: The favorites to lead the NFL in rushing yards

The latest NFL drama has been running backs trying to get paid. The market has deemed the position as expendable.

Yet, there are more star NFL running backs than ever. Fifteen backs rushed for at least 1,000 yards last season, and another quarterback did it (Justin Fields).

The three that cracked 1,500 yards are Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb.

So, predictably, Chubb and Henry are the top-two betting favorites to lead the NFL in rushing yards in the upcoming season. Jacobs is sixth in the betting markets, with New England’s Rhamondre Stevenson and Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson leap-frogging him.

Some other notable names to crack the list:

  1. Tony Pollard, who is now free of the Ezekiel Elliott chain

  2. Saquon Barkley, the ever-dangerous Giant

  3. Alexander Mattison, the RB1 in Minneapolis with Dalvin Cook gone

  4. Kenneth Walker, the Michigan State product that’s made a name for himself

  5. Breece Hall, the Jets running back looking to break out

» READ MORE: Jalen Hurts is favored to lead the NFL in rushing scores at one sportsbook. Is it worth betting on?

Here’s the full odds list provided by DraftKings Sportsbook:

  1. Nick Chubb: +450

  2. Derrick Henry: +650

  3. Jonathan Taylor: +650

  4. Bijan Robinson: +1000

  5. Rhamondre Stevenson: +1500

  6. Josh Jacobs: +1500

  7. Saquon Barkley: +1500

  8. Tony Pollard: +1600

  9. Breece Hall: +2000

  10. Alexander Mattison: +2500

  11. Kenneth Walker: +3000

  12. Miles Sanders: +3000

  13. Justin Fields: +3000

  14. Najee Harris: +3000

  15. Travis Etienne: +3500

  16. Joe Mixon: +3500

  17. Christian McCaffery: +3500

  18. Javonte Williams: +3500

  19. J.K. Dobbins: +3500

  20. Austin Ekeler: +3500

  21. Aaron Jones: +3500

  22. Dalvin Cook: +4000

  23. Rashaad Penny: +4000

NFL predictions: The projected top rushers

The Action Network’s Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon put together their season-long player prop projections in the offseason, which I use as a baseline for any season-long player prop bet.

The team projects six running backs break the 1,000-yard mark this season:

  1. Nick Chubb: 1,284

  2. Derrick Henry: 1,279

  3. Bijan Robinson: 1,154

  4. Jonathan Taylor: 1,060

  5. Saquon Barkley: 1,045

  6. Josh Jacobs: 1,003

Taylor is the surprising name to crack that list, but he’s projected for a big bounce-back season after only playing 11 games last year. Also, you’d think the Colts would lean into their rushing game after drafting Anthony Richardson.

Ultimately, one name on this list stands out from the rest.

» READ MORE: Three value bets on the NFL’s 2023 passing yards leader includes Lions QB Jared Goff

Bet Bijan Robinson to lead the NFL in rushing yards

Behind an offensive line that finished fifth in Adjusted Line Yards, the Atlanta Falcons used bridge quarterback Marcus Mariota, rookie running back Tyler Allegier and converted wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson to run for the third-most yards in the NFL (2,718 yards) while ranking third in Rush Offense DVOA (per Football Outsiders).

The Falcons are a run-first team, posting a league-high 33 rush attempts per game in 2022. They rushed the ball 65% of the time on first down, the highest first-down rush rate since the 2014 Cowboys.

This year, the Falcons return four offensive line starters and drafted the most highly-touted running back prospect this century.

Given Atlanta is planning on starting second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder in Week 1, they will continue to rush the ball at a league-high rate. And I project zero regression in their efficiency numbers because the offensive line will continue to open holes as wide as the Hoover Dam.

The Falcons plan on running the ball a lot, they’ll likely do it effectively, and Robinson will get the lion’s share of those carries.

Robinson’s situation is perfect. But that’s not the only reason to love him to rush for the most yards in the coming season.

Robinson rushed for 3,400 yards and 33 touchdowns in 31 games at Texas. Of his 1,575 yards last season, over 1,000 came after contact. He forced an FBS-high 104 missed tackles.

Robinson finished second in Pro Football Focus’s FBS running back grades, only behind Michigan’s Blake Corum.

Robinson is legitimately the best running back prospect in years, and he’s being injected into one of the most efficient, run-happy offenses in the modern NFL.

Robinson is a threat to win Rookie of the Year, propel the Falcons to the top of the NFC South standings, and lead the NFL in rushing in this upcoming season.

The play: NFL Most Regular Season Rushing Yards – Bijan Robinson (+1000)

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