49ers vs. Rams prediction: Will San Francisco get revenge vs. division rival?

For the first time since last year’s NFC Championship, the Rams and 49ers face off the first of two divisional clashes this season. And oddsmakers are expecting another tight one Monday.

San Francisco is dealing as a slim 2-point favorite at BetMGM ahead of its Week 4 matchup with Los Angeles, which has won two straight after a humiliating Week 1 loss in prime time. Will the defending champs pull off the upset to make it three straight?

Here’s how we’re betting Monday night’s contest, which kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.

In recent years, this matchup has been dominated by the 49ers, who have won six straight regular-season contests against their division rivals. But the Rams got the best of them in last year’s NFC championship game – and they should take care of business on Monday, too.

It’s easy to dismiss Los Angeles after that season-opening Thursday night loss at home, when millions watched the defending champions look entirely outclassed by the title favorite Bills. Matthew Stafford was particularly troubled in that loss, throwing three interceptions while under constant barrage from a Bills front that sacked him seven times.

That isn’t the whole story, though. The Rams are undefeated since that loss, and Stafford still ranks second in the entire league in completion rate (72.5%). In fact, if you took away that Week 1 clunker, he would rank sixth in passer rating (101.9) and third in yards per attempt (8.54). Both of those are much closer to his marks from a season ago.

Just as the Rams’ stats are sullied by that blowout loss to the Bills, the 49ers’ metrics are carried by a huge Week 2 win over the Seahawks. This team has looked listless outside of that game, scoring just 10 points in each of its other two contests with Week 1 backup Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm.

The longtime starter was thrust back into a familiar role in Week 2 after sitting out much of the offseason following shoulder surgery. The results have been as expected: he ranks 29th in yards per game (182.5) and 30th in QBR (27.2) and has done very little to elevate the talent around him. It doesn’t help that All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams (ankle) is out, which led to a season-high four sacks allowed in last week’s loss to the Broncos.

» READ MORE: Eagles remain NFC favorites heading into Week 5

San Francisco’s vaunted defense, which ranks first in yards allowed (227) and points allowed (12.3) per game, is also beset by injuries. Interior pass rushers Arik Armstead (foot) and Javon Kinlaw (knee) are among 19 players who are uncertain to play on Monday for San Francisco. That’s a big deal, as relentless pressure has been the key to slowing down Stafford and this Rams offense.

If both teams were at full strength, perhaps this would be a different story. They aren’t, though, and I’d have a tough time banking on Garoppolo as a home favorite without more help around him. Expect the Rams to get back on track in this one against a familiar foe.

» READ MORE: An early look at Week 5 NFL betting lines

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