Giants vs. Commanders prediction: Bet New York to cover inflated SNF line

Here’s something absolutely nobody saw coming when the NFL season kicked off a little more than three months ago: A Giants vs. Commanders game was flexed into the Sunday Night Football slot.

Two NFC East rivals that finished a combined 11-23 last season are anchoring the bottom of the division for the second straight year — but with 7-5-1 records, both are currently holding the final two NFC playoff positions.

Despite those identical records — and despite the Giants covering as a 2.5-point home underdog two weeks ago when these teams tied 20-20 — the Commanders are a solid home favorite in the Week 15 NFL betting market.

Coming off a bye and on a 6-1-1 heater, Washington certainly should be laying points in this quick-turnaround rematch. Just not this many points.

Hence the reason we’re backing the underdog with our Giants vs. Commanders prediction.

Note: Odds updated as of 2 p.m. ET on Dec. 16.

We get it: Washington has had two weeks to prepare for the most recent team it faced. And since mid-October, the Commanders have just one SU loss (20-17 vs. the Vikings as a 3-point underdog) and one ATS setback (at the Giants).

Conversely, after a stunning 6-1 start to the season, New York has just one victory since Oct. 24. And that was at home … against the one-win Texans.

» READ MORE: Eagles vs. Bears prediction: Offenses will deliver at frigid Soldier Field

We also understand that Washington handed the Eagles their only loss of the season last month (in Philadelphia), while the Giants last week got pummeled by the Eagles 48-22 at home.

Likewise, we understand that the Commanders completely outplayed New York in Week 13. They had clear advantages in rushing yards (165-134), passing yards (246-182) and time of possession (41 minutes to 29 minutes).

So why not back Washington? Because this point spread is inflated, largely because of what happened to the Giants last week.

Sure, recent form matters. But as they say in boxing, styles make fights. And while New York doesn’t have the skills to go blow-for-blow with the Eagles for 60 minutes, it matches up just fine against the Commanders.

We saw as much just two weeks ago. The Giants rallied from a 10-0 first-quarter deficit and had a 20-13 lead before Washington scored a touchdown with less than two minutes to play to force overtime.

» READ MORE: Eagles vs. Bears: Four player props for Sunday’s matchup in Chicago

Also, New York had the best chance to win the game in overtime: Kicker Graham Gano came up short on a 58-yard field goal on the final play.

Yes, the Giants were an abject disaster against the Eagles last week (pretty much as we predicted). However, even with that blowout defeat, they’re still 9-4 ATS this season.

Entering Week 15, that mark was tied with Detroit for second-best in the NFL, right behind the Bengals (10-3 ATS).

New York is also 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings against the Commanders, including 3-0 ATS in the last three battles in D.C. (two outright victories and a one-point loss last year).

And looking at the last six head-to-head meetings, two went to overtime (including the tie two weeks ago), and three others were decided by point margins of 1, 3 and 1.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

Finally, of Washington’s seven victories this season, five were in one-score games. The only exceptions: a 23-10 road win against the wretched Texans and a shocking 32-21 upset in Philadelphia.

In the latter contest, the Commanders led 26-21. Then on the game’s final play, the Eagles — in desperation lateral mode — fumbled. Washington defensive end Casey Toohill picked up the loose ball on the 1-yard line and stepped into the end zone.

The point: The Commanders are not built to blow teams out. And just like in Week 13, they’re not blowing out the Giants on Sunday night.

With the majority of the wagering world laying the chalk, go the opposite direction and grab the points at Caesars Sportsbook.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.