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Eagles vs. Giants prediction: Lay points with Philly in NFC East battle

Bet on the Eagles to flex their superior muscles and end spread-covering struggles on the road

Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders celebrates a touchdown in last week's 35-10 win over the Tennessee Titans. Sanders and the Eagles travel to New York on Sunday as a big favorite against the rival Giants. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders celebrates a touchdown in last week's 35-10 win over the Tennessee Titans. Sanders and the Eagles travel to New York on Sunday as a big favorite against the rival Giants. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)Read moreMitchell Leff / Getty Images

The Eagles vs. Giants matchup at MetLife Stadium on Sunday is intriguing on multiple fronts from a wagering standpoint.

Philadelphia owns the NFL’s best overall record at 11-1, but no team in the league has covered more point spreads than the Giants. New York’s 9-3 ATS mark is tied with Cincinnati for best in the league.

And while the Eagles are a perfect 5-for-5 on the road this season, they’ve cashed just once when playing in hostile territory.

Meanwhile, after last week’s 20-20 tie with Washington as a 2-point home underdog, the Giants are an NFL-best 7-1 ATS when catching points.

Does that mean New York is an automatic play as a touchdown underdog at home, where they are 4-2-1 SU and 5-2 ATS this season? Nope — at least that’s not how we see it.

Here’s our Eagles vs. Giants prediction for the first of two clashes this season between bitter NFC East rivals.

Note: Odds updated as of 3:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 9.

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Eagles vs. Giants Prediction

  1. Eagles -7, -115 (at FanDuel)

Eagles vs. Giants Prediction: Analysis

Too bad this game wasn’t played three weeks ago — we’d be getting much better value on Philadelphia.

At that time, the Eagles were playing their worst football of the season. After a lackluster 29-17 victory at Houston and a 32-21 home loss to Washington, Philadelphia barely escaped lowly Indianapolis with a 17-16, last-minute road victory.

The Eagles failed to cover in all three games, dropping to 5-5 ATS on the season.

On the same day Philadelphia struggled against the Colts, New York went into its home game against the Lions with a 7-2 SU and ATS record. However, the Giants got smoked 31-18 by the Lions, who took a 24-6 lead into the fourth quarter.

New York followed that with a 28-20 Thanksgiving Day loss at Dallas in a game that wasn’t at all close — the Cowboys had a 430-300 edge in total yards and led 28-13 when the Giants scored a touchdown with eight seconds remaining to cover the 10-point spread.

Then last week against Washington, New York got outplayed again. The Commanders had a 411-316 yardage advantage and held the ball for more than 41 minutes. But the Giants escaped with a tie and covered as a small home underdog.

» READ MORE: NFL MVP Odds: Eagles’ Hurts, Chiefs’ Mahomes in two-man battle

While Washington and New York were playing not to lose in overtime, the Eagles were in their locker room at Lincoln Financial Field celebrating a 35-10 whipping of AFC South-leading Tennessee.

It was as thorough a beatdown as Philadelphia has inflicted this season. After the teams traded first-quarter touchdowns, the Eagles scored 28 of the game’s final 31 points. They finished with 453 total yards against a solid Titans defense and held Tennessee to just 209 yards.

And so here we are, with the once-again-surging Eagles laying a full touchdown (or more, depending on the sportsbook) against a Giants outfit that has been playing way over its head all season and recently has been exposed.

Again, had this matchup taken place a few weeks back, oddsmakers likely would’ve made Philly no more than a 4.5-point favorite.

Despite the loss in point spread value, the Eagles absolutely are the right side Sunday. Because they’re a vastly superior team — in every way.

Just look at some of the statistical discrepancies:

  1. Philadelphia ranks third in the NFL in total offense (388.3 yards per game) and second in scoring (28.2 points per game). New York is 22nd in yards (330.1) and 21st in points (20.4)

  2. Philadelphia ranks second in total defense (296.4 ypg), first in passing defense (178.5 ypg) and seventh in scoring defense (18.8 ppg). Correspondingly, New York’s defense is 23rd (359.8), 18th (218.8) and 12th (21.0)

  3. Philadelphia is No. 1 in the NFL in turnover margin at +13 (23 takeaways, 10 giveaways). New York is tied for eighth at +3 (15 takeaways, 12 giveaways)

» READ MORE: Super Bowl odds: Eagles remain third choice to win NFL title

Yes, New York has an edge in the running game, and NFL Comeback Player of the Year candidate Sequon Barkley (1,055 yards) is fully responsible for that. But Barkley might not play because of a neck injury. (If he sits, this point spread will jump at least a full point.)

Finally, we can’t help but bring up the quality-of-victories angle.

Since a 21-20 last-minute comeback win at Tennessee in Week 1, the Giants have defeated five non-playoff teams (Carolina, Chicago, Green Bay, Jacksonville and Houston), plus Baltimore (a game the Ravens, who are clearly flawed, gave away in the final minutes).

New York also has lost to Dallas twice, Seattle and Detroit, and tied Washington.

The Eagles, meanwhile, own blowout wins over the 10-2 Vikings (24-7), 9-3 Cowboys (26-17) and 8-4 Titans (35-10). In fact, of Philly’s 11 wins, only three have been by fewer than seven points (38-35 at Detroit in Week 1; 20-17 at Arizona in Week 6; and the one-point victory at Indy three weeks ago).

Although weather may be a factor Sunday — it’s expected to be wet most of the afternoon at MetLife — the Eagles should thoroughly dominate this one and get their first spread cover on the road since Week 3.

Lay the points with Philadelphia at FanDuel and look for at least a 10-point victory (or a full-on blowout if Barkley can’t go).

Eagles vs. Giants odds (via FanDuel)

  1. Point spread: Eagles (-7, -115) @ Giants (+7, -105)

  2. Moneyline: Eagles (-320) @ Giants (+260)

  3. Total: 44.5 points (Over -114/Under -106)

» READ MORE: Week 14 NFL lines: Eagles open as sizable favorites vs. Giants

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