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Eagles vs. Bears prediction: Offenses will deliver at frigid Soldier Field

Expect QBs Hurts, Fields to make enough big plays to push Sunday’s game Over the total

Miles Sanders of the Philadelphia Eagles reacts after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter of a game against the Tennessee Titans at Lincoln Financial Field on December 04, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Miles Sanders of the Philadelphia Eagles reacts after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter of a game against the Tennessee Titans at Lincoln Financial Field on December 04, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)Read moreMitchell Leff / Getty Images

Before jumping to our Eagles vs. Bears prediction, let’s review a few facts pertaining to Sunday’s matchup in the Windy City.

First, Philadelphia not only owns the NFL’s best record at 12-1, but it is tied for the fourth-best point spread mark (8-5 ATS). On the other hand, Chicago (3-10) is ahead of only the Houston Texans (1-10) in the win-loss department. And the Bears’ 4-8-1 ATS record is only better than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9-1 ATS).

And while the Eagles are undefeated in six games as a visitor, Chicago has dropped four straight home games since winning its first two.

Toss in some seriously lopsided statistics — all in favor of Philadelphia — and of course the Eagles are laying a big number Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field.

The question is, are we laying it, too? Answer: No. But we’re not taking the points with Chicago, either.

Rather, we’re banking on two of the NFL’s most consistent “Over” teams to continue that trend — even in what is expected to be bitterly cold weather.

Note: Odds updated as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 16.

Eagles vs. Bears Prediction

  1. Over 48.5 points (at BetMGM)

Eagles vs. Bears Prediction: Analysis

Make no mistake: Philadelphia should wipe the floor with the banged-up, going-nowhere, grossly overmatched Bears on Sunday.

Should … should.

But we won’t be surprised if that doesn’t happen. Because even though the Eagles won their last three games by a combined 58 points, they’re in a massive lookahead spot and a tricky sandwich situation.

Six days after playing in Chicago, Philly travels to Dallas for a nationally televised Christmas Eve rematch with the Cowboys. That game caps a three-game road trip that started last Sunday in New York against another NFC East rival, the Giants (hence the sandwich component).

» READ MORE: Cowboys open as small favorite for Week 16 clash vs. Eagles

So laying more than a touchdown, even against the awful Bears, doesn’t interest us. We could easily see the Eagles build a big early lead, then let off the gas and let Chicago sneak in for a backdoor cover.

In that respect, we seriously considered backing Philadelphia on the first-half line. Instead, we’re rolling with the Over, despite a wind chill that’s expected to be (at best) in the low teens.

First off, the Eagles and Bears — along with Detroit — are the No. 1 Over teams in the NFL. Each squad has cleared the total in nine of 13 games.

Philadelphia has gone Over in three straight and seven of its last eight, while Chicago is on a seven-game Over streak.

Now, it’s important to note that four of the Eagles’ last seven games ended with fewer than 49 combined points (three of those got close, with final scores of 35-13, 29-17 and 35-10). Similarly, three of the Bears’ last seven have come up shy of 49 points (two — including last week’s game against Green Bay — hit 47).

So, yes, we’re dealing with a somewhat inflated number here. But it’s beatable for two key reasons: Chicago’s defense can’t stop anyone (least of all an offense as dynamic as Philly’s), and the Eagles’ defense is solid but not infallible.

» READ MORE: Super Bowl exacta odds show Bills, Chiefs would likely be favored vs. Eagles

Start with the Bears. Here are the point totals they’ve surrendered since the day before Halloween: 49 (at Dallas), 35 (vs. Miami), 31 (vs. Detroit), 27 (at Atlanta), 31 (at the Jets), 28 (vs. Green Bay).

That’s an average of 33.5 points per contest — which is actually less than what the Eagles have averaged offensively the last three weeks (41.0).

In fact, Philadelphia has been held to less than 24 points just three times this season: 20-17 win at Arizona (Week 5), 32-21 loss to Washington (Week 9) and 17-16 victory at Indianapolis (Week 10).

As for the Eagles’ defense, it has given up at least 16 points in nine of 13 games overall and five of six road contests. Also, that defense has faced just one quarterback that has the kind of mobility second-year Chicago QB Justin Fields possesses: Arizona’s Kyler Murray.

Philadelphia did a solid job keeping Murray in check (250 passing yards, 42 rushing yards). But Fields has raised his game in the second half of the season.

Since an ugly 12-7 Week 6 home loss to Washington, Fields has put up rushing/receiving yardage totals of 261, 221, 301, 314, 238 and 325. During this stretch, he’s accounted for nine passing and seven rushing touchdowns, while leading the Bears to an average of 27.8 points per contest.

And prior to last week’s 28-19 loss to the Packers — which Fields started after sitting out Week 12 with a shoulder injury — Chicago had put up at least 24 points in five straight games.

With Fields a bit healthier than he was last week, we can see the Bears putting up between 20-24 points (even if several skill players who are questionable don’t play).

We also can see Fields — who has thrown 10 interceptions — making a mistake or two against Philadelphia’s opportunistic defense (league-leading 24 takeaways), resulting in some easy scoring opportunities for the Eagles’ torrid offense.

With or without Fields’ charitable contributions, though, NFL MVP favorite Jalen Hurts and Co. figure to light up Chicago’s horrendous defense (and, consequently, the scoreboard).

Put it all together and this game should blow past the half-century mark before the middle of the fourth quarter.

Load up on Over 48.5 points at BetMGM.

Eagles vs. Bears odds (via BetMGM)

  1. Point spread: Eagles (-9) @ Bears (+9)

  2. Moneyline: Eagles (-400) @ Bears (+310)

  3. Total: 48.5 points

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