Super Bowl 2023 predictions: Bet these Chiefs vs. Eagles defensive props

The last time the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles hooked up, a flag football game broke out.

On the opening Sunday in October 2021, the teams combined for nine touchdowns, three field goals, 303 rushing yards and 629 passing yards.

When the track meet was over, the Chiefs strolled out of Lincoln Financial Field with a 42-30 victory. That final score obliterated the already-sky-high total of 53.5.

Bettors and oddsmakers seem to think Kansas City and Philadelphia will put on another offensive show in Super Bowl 57 on Sunday at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

At least one sportsbook opened the Over/Under for the game as low as 48.5, with the number quickly settling at 49.5 early on. It’s ticked up from there to 50, 50.5 and even 51, with most shops currently holding firm at 50.5.

Whether or not we end up with another Chiefs-Eagles shootout, this much is guaranteed: At least some defensive plays are going to be made Sunday.

So let’s dive into the Super Bowl 57 props market and see if we can pick off a few winners on the defensive side of the ball.

Odds updated as of 5 p.m. ET on Feb. 6.

This prop basically boils down to a battle between two linebackers — Kansas City’s Nick Bolton and Philadelphia’s Edwards.

Bolton is the odds-on favorite at FanDuel at -150 to finish with the most tackles in Super Bowl 57. Edwards is next at +220, followed by Eagles teammate Kyzir White at +950.

After that? It’s a big-time drop to the fourth choice, Chiefs safety Justin Reid at +3300 odds.

Over at Caesars Sportsbook, Bolton has the highest combined tackles prop at 10.5. Edwards is next (8.5) and White (6.5) is third.

So it’s understandable that Bolton — who was second in the NFL with 180 tackles in the regular season — is the chalk. But we’re siding with Edwards, purely for the plus-money value that FanDuel is offering.

While he finished far behind Bolton, Edwards was no slouch in the tackles department — he had 159, tied for seventh in the league.

Edwards did have his two least productive tackling games of the season in Philadelphia’s playoff wins over the New York Giants (four tackles) and San Francisco 49ers (three). His previous low this season was six (three times).

This slump, though, comes on the heels of a four-game, end-of-season run in which Edwards had 9, 14, 11 and 10 tackles. Those 44 tackles are only six fewer than what Bolton produced in Kansas City’s final four regular-season games.

Bolton (14 tackles) has doubled up Edwards in the postseason. Still, Edwards will have his opportunities Sunday. And at 2-to-1 odds, we’re betting that he takes advantage of them.

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Sweat failed to get to any of San Francisco’s quarterbacks in the NFC Championship Game. But that doesn’t mean much because the 49ers’ top signal caller, Brock Purdy, got knocked out of the game on San Francisco’s first offensive drive.

Once Purdy departed, the 49ers attempted all of 16 passes — 13 by backup Josh Johnson, two short throws by Purdy (who returned to the game in the fourth quarter after Johnson was knocked out with a concussion) and one halfback option pass by tailback Christian McCaffrey.

So that was mostly a throwaway game for Sweat and Philadelphia’s pass rushers. Instead, let’s focus on what the Eagles’ defensive end did in his previous seven games: eight sacks, including at least one in six of those seven contests.

Sweat on Super Bowl Sunday will be targeting Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who ranked third in the NFL with 648 regular-season pass attempts.

Mahomes also put the ball in the air 73 times in K.C.’s two playoff wins (despite missing the second quarter of a Divisional Playoff game against Jacksonville because of a sprained ankle).

So Sweat figures to get plenty of chances to chase down Mahomes, whose ankle will be improved Sunday but still not 100%.

Worth mentioning: Sweat hasn’t gone consecutive games without a sack since a five-game drought from Week 4-9 (including a bye). So we’ll bank on the Florida State product to drop Mahomes once.

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It’s tempting to go the other way on this prop, solely because Mahomes — believe it or not — has cashed this Over by himself in his two Super Bowl appearances. He had two interceptions each against the 49ers (Super Bowl 54) and against Tampa Bay Bucs (Super Bowl 55).

Also, the Eagles tied for fourth in the NFL with 17 interceptions, and they have another one in the playoffs.

And while Kansas City only had 11 picks in the regular season, it snatched three against Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow the last two games.

All that said, Hurts and Mahomes have been flawless with the football in the postseason — no interceptions in 122 combined pass attempts.

In fact, Mahomes has been picked off just once in his last six games (212 passes). Hurts has tossed just six interceptions all season (509 attempts).

So we won’t be surprised if both MVP-caliber QBs protect the pigskin all night Sunday. Lay the juice and play this one Under.

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Mahomes (26) and Hurts (38) were dropped a combined 64 times in the regular season. Tack on five more in the playoffs — two for Hurts, three for Mahomes — and that total rises to 69.

Now guess which teams ranked 1-2 in sacks during the regular season? Yep, the Eagles and Chiefs.

Philadelphia blew away the field with 70 sacks, with K.C. notching 55.

The Chiefs planted Burrow five times in the AFC Championship game, one week after getting to Lawrence twice. The Eagles have done Kansas City one better with eight playoff sacks.

Obviously, both Hurts and Mahomes are elusive quarterbacks. But by extending plays with their feet, they also give the pass rush time to hunt them down.

Plus, this being the Super Bowl, you know both guys will hold onto the ball as long as possible in hopes of finding someone open downfield.

Finally, Mahomes was sacked a total of seven times in Super Bowls 54 and 55. Yes, both those games ended with exactly five sacks (because the Chiefs only got one in each game).

Still, here are the sack totals in the last seven Super Bowls: 9, 5, 5, 5, 1, 10, 12.

So only once did the two teams not come close to combining for at least six sacks.

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