Super Bowl 2023: Four Eagles vs. Chiefs long-shot prop bets

Ask anyone who plays Powerball why they do it, and they’ll tell you: “Where else can you invest $10 for a shot at half-a-billion smackeroos?”

That same risk a little/win a lot mentality is what drives some Super Bowl bettors to wager on props with long shot odds.

But just like with Powerball, many long-shot props have little chance of hitting. Yet the odds sportsbooks offer on these pie-in-the-sky bets aren’t nearly as astronomical as they should be.

For instance, one book is offering a prop on whether both the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs will record a safety in Super Bowl 57.

The odds? 66-to-1. They should be more like 6,666-to-1, considering both teams have recorded a safety in the same game exactly nine times in NFL history — and not once in the playoffs.

So when hunting for Super Bowl long shots, the key is to zero in on props that have a somewhat reasonable chance of hitting and offer fair value.

We put that theory in practice in coming up with the following Super Bowl long shot prop recommendations.

Odds updated as of 1 p.m. ET on Feb. 3.

Obviously, there’s immense, almost suffocating pressure that comes with playing in the Super Bowl. So we could see Philadelphia coach Nick Sirianni calling a quick, dump-off screen on the team’s first pass play to help settle the nerves of quarterback Jalen Hurts (and the entire offense).

Since Sanders will start in the backfield, the veteran running back would be the target of such a screen pass. If that happens — and Sanders catches it — cashing a 20-to-1 ticket would be a great start to Super Bowl 57.

For the record, Sanders has caught just 21 passes this season, but he has at least one reception in seven of his last 10 games.

(By the way, a quick word about shopping for value: FanDuel is offering this exact same prop. Its odds? Only +750. Caesars Sportsbook is at +1500.)

» READ MORE: Super Bowl 57 props: Ten fun Chiefs vs. Eagles novelty prop bets

McKinnon is the Chiefs’ pass-catching running back whose 11 touchdowns (one rushing, 10 receiving) are second behind tight end Travis Kelce (15) for the team lead.

Brown is the Eagles’ No. 1 receiver who leads the team with 11 touchdown receptions. Only quarterback Jalen Hurts (15 rushing touchdowns) and Sanders (13) have more.

Full disclosure, though: Brown enters the Super Bowl in a serious touchdown drought. He has reached the end zone just once in his last six games, and that was with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew throwing to him (Week 17 vs. New Orleans).

McKinnon didn’t score in either playoff contest. However, he ended the regular season with a six-game touchdown streak (nine in all). And he’s clearly the player Kansas City Chiefs coach Andy Reid likes to have on the field when the team gets in the red zone.

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Obviously, picking the exact order of the first two touchdown scorers is a crapshoot. But with two players who have a combined 22 TDs, there’s at least a reasonable chance each hits pay dirt in Super Bowl 57.

If Brown and McKinnon and can do it in that order — and before anyone else does — a 100-to-1 payout would be mighty nice.

Prefer the order reversed? McKinnon to score first and Brown to score second has the same +10000 odds at FanDuel.

So you could put $10 on each prop ($20) total, and if Brown and McKinnon score the first two TDs in any order, you’d collect $1,000 (plus get back one of your two $10 investments).

Hargrave had 11 of the Eagles’ NFL-best 70 sacks in the regular season, putting the veteran defensive tackle in a three-way tie for second behind team-leading linebacker Haason Reddick (16.5 sacks).

Hargrave tacked on another sack against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. While that was just his second in the last five games, he does have three games with multiple sacks this season. Only Reddick (five) has more.

What about the fact Hargrave will be trying to chase down “elusive” Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes? Well, Mahomes was sacked 26 times this season. And playing on a gimpy ankle against the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game, he was dropped three times.

Mahomes’ ankle figures to be much improved with two weeks of rest, but it’s doubtful he’ll be 100 percent. So Hargrave will be hunting a somewhat wounded duck.

Mahomes, of course, was 100 percent last season when he came to Philadelphia and threw five touchdown passes in a 42-30 victory. The Eagles only registered one sack that day against the soon-to-be two-time NFL MVP.

The player who got him? Yep, Hargrave.

» READ MORE: Will Eagles, Chiefs pile up points in Arizona? Here’s what the trends say.

Last year, Kansas City’s “favorite number” was 42 — it scored exactly that many points three times, including in its first two playoff games.

This season? It was 27.

The Chiefs beat the Chargers 27-24 in Week 2; the Jaguars 27-17 in Week 10; the Broncos 27-24 in Week 17; and the Jaguars again 27-20 in the Divisional Playoffs.

Oddly, all four games were at Arrowhead Stadium. This one is indoors at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, which is ideal because we likely will need two field goals from Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker to hit 27.

Butker was shaky in the regular season, going just 18-for-24 on field goal tries (he also missed three extra-points). But he’s found his groove again in the postseason, going 5-for-5 on field goals (including two 50-yard bombs) and 5-for-5 on PATS.

If you want a little better odds than 10-to-1 — which, frankly, is short on an exact-score prediction — consider betting Kansas City to score exactly 30 points. Mahomes and Co. have done that three times this season.

BetMGM is offering +1600 that the Chiefs will do it again in Super Bowl 57.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.