Super Bowl odds: Eagles down to fourth choice to win it all

The Philadelphia Eagles opened the 2022-23 season with eight consecutive wins, reached 13-1 in December and earned the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Along the way, the Eagles were consistently among the top three favorites in the Super Bowl odds market.

That changed last week when the red-hot San Francisco 49ers caught Philadelphia at two sportsbooks and zipped past them at a third.

Now? The 49ers are solidly in the third position in the Super Bowl odds pecking order, behind only the favored Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills (who sit second).

The Eagles, who didn’t even take the field last week, have dropped to fourth across the board.

Here’s an updated look at Super Bowl LVII odds for the eight teams still alive heading into this week’s NFL Divisional round of the 2022-23 playoffs.

Odds updated as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Jan. 18.

At this time last week, the Eagles’ odds to win their second Super Bowl championship were the same as they are today at BetMGM and FanDuel: +500. And they’re slightly better at Caesars Sportsbook, dropping from +550 last week to +525.

So how did Philadelphia dip to the fourth spot at all three sportsbooks? Because the 49ers stepped forward more so than the Eagles stepped back.

San Francisco’s Super Bowl odds shrunk from +500 last week to +400 at BetMGM; from +450 to +380 at Caesars; and from +500 to +450 at FanDuel.

So what led to this flip-flop of the Eagles and Niners in the Super Bowl betting markets? Multiple factors.

First, San Francisco long ago passed Philadelphia for the NFL’s longest winning streak of the season. The Niners’ streak now sits at 11 after Saturday’s 41-24 throttling of the Seattle Seahawks in an NFL wild card matchup.

While San Francisco has been rolling, the Eagles have slammed into some speed bumps. After its 13-1 start, Philadelphia lost consecutive games to the Cowboys (road) and Saints (home).

Coach Nick Sirianni’s squad then closed the season with a division- and top seed-clinching home win over the Giants. But the Eagles didn’t look great in struggling to put away an opponent that didn’t field any of its key first-string players.

Philadelphia’s late-season struggles, of course, coincided with a shoulder injury suffered by star quarterback Jalen Hurts in a Week 15 win at Chicago. Hurts sat out the Cowboys and Saints losses, and although he returned in Week 18 to lead the win against New York, he clearly wasn’t 100 percent.

Hurts’ health — nobody really knows how close to 100 percent he is — certainly has impacted how bettors and oddsmakers view the Eagles’ chances to not only win Super Bowl LVII but get to the big game.

In fact, at BetMGM, Philly and San Francisco have identical odds to win the NFC (both +160). Caesars has the 49ers as a slight favorite (+160 vs. +165), while the Eagles have a slim edge at FanDuel (+150 vs. +170).

» READ MORE: NFL playoffs odds: Bettors backing Giants, Bengals in Divisional Round

San Francisco’s lengthy winning streak, Philadelphia’s recent struggles, Hurts’ shoulder — all are reasons why the Niners have jumped the Eagles on the Super Bowl odds board.

Another factor: money.

Over the past two months, sportsbooks have been inundated with action on San Francisco to win the Super Bowl and the NFC.

At BetMGM alone, 10% of the Super Bowl futures money the book had taken as of Tuesday morning was on the 49ers. That puts San Francisco third in ticket count behind Buffalo (16.8%) and Kansas City (11.6%).

As for BetMGM’s NFC title market, nearly 20% of all tickets written and 28% of all dollars wagered are on the 49ers. By comparison, the Eagles are at 16.7% tickets and 25% money to take the NFC.

Now what’s particularly interesting about the shift in NFL futures odds between San Francisco and Philadelphia is how oddsmakers view the teams’ NFL Divisional Playoff matchups.

The Eagles are a consensus 7.5-point home favorite on Saturday night against the New York Giants. The Niners opened as a 4.5-point home favorite against Dallas, but that line has since dropped to Niners -3 in some spots (including FanDuel).

So oddsmakers — and bettors — clearly believe Philadelphia has a much better shot than San Francisco at moving on to next week’s NFC championship (which the Eagles would host if they knock off the Giants).

Yet the same wagering community views the Eagles and 49ers as virtual equals when it comes to winning the conference and Super Bowl.

Which means, barring significant injuries this week, a 49ers-Eagles NFC title clash probably would feature a betting line near pick-em — even with Philly playing at home.

» READ MORE: Eagles open up as a sizable favorite for playoff opener vs. Giants

There may not be any guarantees in sports betting — especially when it comes to the NFL. But this much is certain: If you haven’t already invested in Super Bowl futures tickets and are considering doing so now, you probably shouldn’t bank on a massive payday.

With only eight teams still in the mix, Super Bowl odds have shortened across the board. So much so that only two teams — the Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars — have Super Bowl odds greater than +900 at BetMGM, Caesars and FanDuel.

Not coincidentally, Jacksonville (-8.5 at Kansas City) and New York (-7.5 at Philadelphia) are the two biggest underdogs in the NFL Divisional round.

The best Super Bowl prices on the Jaguars (+3500) and Giants (+3000) can be found at Caesars.

Think Jacksonville and New York can shock the world, win two more games and meet up in Glendale, Arizona, for Super Bowl LVII? You can get +19000 odds (190-to-1) at FanDuel on such a matchup — meaning a $100 wager would net $19,000.

The most likely Super Bowl matchups, at least according to FanDuel oddsmakers:

Over at BetMGM, the Super Bowl matchup favorites are:

Finally Caesars Sportsbook continues to offer Super Bowl “exacta” odds — that is, picking the winner and runner-up in order. The favorites:

The biggest exacta long shot at Caesars? You guessed it: Giants over the Jaguars and vice versa.

Both results have odds of +40000 — or 400-to-1.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.