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Titans vs. Packers predictions: Four prop bets for Thursday Night Football

Bet on Titans’ Henry to have success on ground, Green Bay’s Rodgers to produce through air

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry had a streak of five-straight 100-yard rushing games snapped last week, when he finished with just 53 yards in a win over Denver. Henry heads into Thursday night's game at Green Bay with a rushing prop of 98.5 yards. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry had a streak of five-straight 100-yard rushing games snapped last week, when he finished with just 53 yards in a win over Denver. Henry heads into Thursday night's game at Green Bay with a rushing prop of 98.5 yards. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)Read moreGreg Fiume / Getty Images

The Tennessee Titans (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS) and Green Bay Packers (4-6 SU and ATS) may not bring similar records into their Week 11 Thursday Night Football battle. But they’ve played a similar style of football this season.

Neither offense has been prolific in the point-scoring department (Tennessee is averaging 18.4 per game; Green Bay 18.5). And both defenses have been relatively stingy (Tennessee is allowing 18.7 points per game; Green Bay 21.6).

So it’s no surprise the Over/Under on Thursday night is barely north of 40 points, especially with the wind chill expected to be in the low 20s at kickoff at Lambeau Field.

How does all this factor into our Titans vs. Packers predictions when it comes to prop bets? Well, for one thing, we’re confident at least one of these squads will fail to hit its season scoring average.

Here’s a four pack of Titans vs. Packers prop bets for Thursday Night Football.

Note: Odds updated as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 17.

Titans vs. Packers prop: Derrick Henry total rushing yards

  1. Odds: 99.5, Over -115/Under -115 (at BetMGM)

  2. Prediction: Over

You may have heard this, but Henry is very good at running the football. What you may not know is the Green Bay Packers aren’t very good at stopping people from running the football. And that’s putting it nicely.

Green Bay has been torched for 140.6 rushing yards per game — only six teams are allowing more. In fact, all but one of the Packers’ opponents (Tampa Bay in Week 3) has finished with more than 115 rushing yards.

Somehow, the Bucs only churned out 34 rushing yards in a 14-12 home loss to the Packers. If you remove that aberration, Green Bay would be giving up 156.2 rushing yards per contest, which would be the third most in the league.

But enough about the Pack’s olé defense. Let’s talk about Henry. He’s got to be steaming after being limited to 53 yards on 19 carries (2.8 yards per tote) in last week’s 17-10 home win over Denver.

It was Henry’s second-lowest rushing output of the season (topped only by the 25 yards he got in a blowout loss at Buffalo in Week 2). It also snapped a string of five straight 100-yard rushing games for the two-time NFL rushing champ.

Expect Henry, who is just eight yards behind the New York Giants’ Saquon Barkley for the NFL rushing lead, to run a lot, run effectively and begin a new 100-yard streak at Lambeau on Thursday.

Play Henry Over his rushing prop at BetMGM.

» READ MORE: Eagles-Colts line on the move after Eagles drop first game

Titans vs. Packers prop: Aaron Rodgers total touchdown passes

  1. Odds: 1.5, Over -105/Under -125 (at BetMGM)

  2. Prediction: Over

Rodgers definitely has had a subpar season, especially by his lofty standards.

After just 10 games, the reigning two-time MVP has more interceptions (seven) then he had in each of the previous five full seasons. Perhaps more shocking, he doesn’t have a single 300-yard passing game after having four such games through Week 13 of last year.

The one thing Rodgers has done as well as ever: Put the pigskin in the end zone. In fact, if rookie wide receiver Christian Watson hadn’t dropped the very first pass Rodgers threw this season — which would’ve gone for a 75-yard score in Minnesota — Rodgers would have at least one TD toss in every game.

Watson, of course, made amends last week when he caught all three of Rodgers’ touchdown tosses. It was the seventh time in the last nine games that Rodgers has thrown multiple TDs.

On Thursday, he gets to pick apart a Titans secondary that has allowed more than 300 passing yards in five of nine games. Only five teams (Cardinals, Raiders, Steelers, Commanders, Chiefs) have allowed more TD passes than the 16 Tennessee has surrendered.

While Green Bay’s wideouts (including Watson) continue to be inconsistent, we’re betting on Rodgers to throw for multiple scores once again.

Titans vs. Packers prop: Titans total points scored

  1. Odds: 19.5, Over -105/Under -115 (at Caesars Sportsbook)

  2. Prediction: Under

No team has scored more than 27 points against Green Bay this season. However, six of the Packers’ last seven opponents have scored between 23 and 27 points.

Makes this Titans vs. Packers prop recommendation pretty dicey, right? Not at all. Because the Titans can’t score.

Tennessee has put up exactly 17 points in three straight games overall and is averaging just 17.2 points in five road games (topping 17 points just twice).

And while we noted in the Henry prop that Green Bay’s run defense has been nonexistent this season, its pass defense has been stellar. The Packers are yielding just 179.7 air yards per contest (third best in the NFL), with only three opponents throwing for more than 216 yards.

Which means, again, we should see a lot of handoffs to Henry and limited pass attempts from Titans QB Ryan Tannehill (who has thrown for 181 yards or less in four of seven starts).

More Henry and less Tannehill will shorten the game, thus limiting Tennessee’s possessions (and chances to put up points). So we’re banking on Tennessee falling short of 20 points for the fourth straight game.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

Titans vs. Packers prop: Aaron Jones total rushing/receiving yards (combined)

  1. Odds: 86.5, Over -115/Under -115 (at BetMGM)

  2. Prediction: Under

While Green Bay has been great at defending the pass and terrible at slowing the running game, the opposite is true for Tennessee. The Titans have given up the second-fewest rushing yards in the NFL (85.1 per game) but the second-most passing yards (272.6 yards per game).

So logic tells us Jones — who gashed the Cowboys for a season-high 138 rushing yards Sunday — is going to have a tough go of it on the ground Thursday night. And we might have said that even if Tennessee’s run defense was mediocre. Because Jones has yet to put together back-to-back monster rushing games.

Prior to last week, the Packers’ versatile running back had rushed for more than 100 yards three times this season. Jones’ totals the weeks after he crossed the century mark: 36, 63 and 25. His rushing totals in his other three games: 49, 19 and 23.

So for Jones to beat this rushing-plus-receiving prop, he almost certainly will need a couple of big catch-and-run plays out of the backfield. He certainly has the skills to do it. The stats just suggest he won’t.

Take away a nine-reception, 53-yard effort at Washington in Week 7, and Jones hasn’t caught more than three passes in any game. And he finished with more than 27 receiving yards just once (38 in Week 2 against Chicago).

With Pro Bowl wideout Davante Adams gone, Jones is easily Rodgers’ most dependable and dangerous weapon. So we expect Tennessee to have eyeballs on the sixth-year tailback all night long.

Play Jones Under his rushing/receiving prop total at BetMGM.

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