What are Cognitive Biases in Gambling? Definition & Examples

Cognitive biases are ways our experiences and the nature of the human brain can shape our opinion about our environment. Everyone is susceptible to cognitive biases, but perhaps no arena is more rife with the possibility of cognitive bias than gambling.

A common example of cognitive bias is the stereotype that says women are less competent or less committed to their jobs than men - which can linger in the subconscious of managers and influence their hiring and promoting decisions and in turn lead to workplace discrimination.

Everyone has the potential to be susceptible to cognitive bias to varying degrees as they are hardwired into our brains and often people don’t realize their behavior is based on biases or preconceived notions.

In his book ‘Addiction Counseling Today: Substances and Addictive Behaviors’, Dr Kevin Alderson - Professor Emeritus of counseling psychology at the University of Calgary - identified six different cognitive biases that are shared by problem gamblers and gambling addicts. In this section we will take a look at each one in more detail.

The gambler’s fallacy is where people use previous events to predict the next event even though it is truly random and has no relation to what is going to happen. For example with a coin toss if 10 “heads” in a row take place that does not make the next toss more likely to fall on “tails”, but people may think tails will happen next simply because they perceive heads to have happened too many times in a row. However, the 11th toss has exactly the same 50/50 chance of being heads or tails.

The most famous example of the gambler’s fallacy took place at the Monte Carlo Casino on August 18, 1913. On a roulette table, the ball fell on black numbers an astonishing 26 times in a row - which represented a hugely unlikely occurrence of around one in 66.6 million. As the streak of black outcomes increased, gamblers bet millions on red as they believed that the chances of that black run continuing were lower. After 26 consecutive black outcomes, the roulette ball finally landed on red but not before huge losses from players who bet more as the run increased making the casino a fortune. This is why the gambler’s fallacy is also often referred to as the Monte Carlo fallacy.

The hot hands fallacy is the tendency to believe that someone who has been successful gambling is more likely to be successful again in further attempts. The concept is often applied to sports originates from basketball where a shooter is perceived to be more likely to score in the future if their previous attempts have been successful.

Gamblers who believe they have hot hands or are on a hot streak may continue playing because they feel that their luck is in when in reality they have the same level of chance as always, which can cause them to be careless with their bets.

Some players may appear to be lucky and others seem unlucky when in reality everyone who plays has the same chance of winning a jackpot slot or going on a losing streak at a blackjack table. Believing otherwise is to buy into the illusion of luck and forego cold and clinical logic.

Some gamblers may fall into the trap that a bet has almost no chance of losing and is a “lock” when in reality there is always a statistical percentage of success or failure. Believing in guarantees when gambling can be hugely problematic and cause players to grasp at an illusion of control that simply isn’t there.

Some gamblers may believe that they are better at betting than they really are, perhaps due to previous success at a certain game or specific casino or online site. Players who are successful in the longterm never overestimate their level of expertise and always know the risks associated with bets.

This is a thread that runs through the previous five gambling cognitive biases and stands alone when gamblers overestimate their chances of winning and underestimate losing. Again this forgoes clear thinking and is based on wanting to be successful rather than the statistical chances of success.

Gambling cognitive biases are rooted in social perception and can show up in various ways, particularly in highly intense situations such as casino games where players are wagering significant amounts. The combination of being motivated to win a bet or make up for a loss can contribute to these factors, but there are many different types of cognitive bias that can crop up and affect players when gambling.

Confirmation bias is a tendency to seek out and prefer information that backs up our pre-existing beliefs and as a result ignore any information that may contradict those beliefs. It is often seen in sports bettors who look for statistics to back up their haunces on bets, but can often lead to ignoring evidence that suggests otherwise. For example, you may find an article that suggests the Green Bay Packers will beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in an upcoming NFL match because they are on a strong run of results at home, have numerous players in good form and some key men coming back from injury. This backs up your feeling that Green Bay will win and causes you to ignore another article detailing how Pittsburgh has actually got the better record in recent head-to-head matches against Green Bay.

Availability bias or the availability heuristic is when we judge the likelihood of an event taking place based on how easily we can remember the same thing happening previously. If we can vividly recall instances of an event taking place we may deem it to be more common than it actually is. Perhaps you bet on there being over 3.5 goals in an English Premier League soccer match between Manchester United and Chelsea because you clearly remember a few high-profile games between the two teams that saw four goals scored or more, when in reality both teams have not been finding the back of the net often in recent games against other teams.

Anchoring bias takes place when people rely too heavily on the first piece of information you receive on a topic, which regardless of its accuracy is then used as a reference point or anchor from which to make subsequent judgments. For example at the beginning of the World Cup you see England are 10/1 to win the trophy and this gets slashed to 7/1 which makes you think it is a great deal and causes you to ignore the factors behind the drop in odds such as player injuries or loss of form.

The framing effect takes place when people react differently to something depending on how it is presented - either in a positive or negative light. It shows how our decisions are influenced by how information is presented rather than simply what is being said. For example, a 2006 study published in the academic journal ‘Science’ saw people given $50 and a choice of two options:

The results saw 62% of people chose to gamble when their option was to lose $30, but only 43% chose to gamble when their other option was to keep $20. The choices were exactly the same but the way in which they were presented to people - as either a chance to gamble and lose money or a chance to gamble and keep money - influenced their thinking.

A fundamental attribution error occurs when people attribute someone’s behavior to situational or dispositional factors rather than take it at face value. For example, a player in a poker game may blame variance for the result of a session rather than look at their own mistakes.

Affinity bias is the tendency to favor people or results that share the same interests, backgrounds and experiences with us. In gambling that could come in the form of backing your favorite basketball team to win because you support them, rather than having analyzed the odds and statistics around the game and come to that conclusion.

The bandwagon effect describes the tendency of people to adopt specific behaviors or opinions simply because others are doing so, rather than because that is what they believe in. It is particularly noticeable during sporting events and lottery games where people feel encouraged to participate in gambling activities in order to not feel left out. You may see lots of people bet on the Kentucky Derby for instance who normally do not gamble at all.

The halo effect occurs when a person’s overall impression of an individual or concept influences their judgments of that individual or concept’s specific traits. You can see the halo effect significantly impacts how sports bettors perceive and rate the chances of a particular player or team winning a game or competition. For example, if one sprinter in the 100m is perceived as being particularly dominant then bettors may overestimate their chances of winning in future events leading to a disproportionate number of bets on this sprinter even when the odds don’t necessarily justify this. It can also work the other way with bettors underestimating players and teams based on perceptions.

Like any kind of cognitive bias being activated, particular situations with high levels of emotion or anxiety can exacerbate the brain’s need to find a quick ‘solve’ for the problem to ease the stress.

Regardless of how self-aware or disciplined players and gamblers are it is very difficult to overcome cognitive bias entirely, however it can be controlled. You should encourage yourself to let go of the belief that the occurrences of a previous event will affect a future result and when it comes to playing casino games you should take the time to understand the true odds of a game and its different scenarios and focus on being as rational as possible.

You may be able to study blackjack and poker strategies that allow you to utilize statistics to increase your chances of success rather than falling back on cognitive biases when they crop up. There are a number of strategies you can implement yourself to get back to reality if these cognitive biases are activated, such as stepping away from a game for a break to regroup and coming back with a clearer mind.

You can also give yourself internal reminders like ‘dice don’t remember rolls’ if you feel like you are being swayed when predicting a future roll based on what has just happened or happened previously rather than the pure odds of something happening. Also you can try to remove any distractions that affect your reasoning process or elements that limit the ability to make clear decisions, such as drinking alcohol.

In sports betting overcoming bias means ignoring small sample sizes and allowing information that both supports and doesn’t support your hunches in equal value. Recent studies have also shown that biased decision-making can be reduced when players learn more about the subject.

In this section we will examine the signs players should watch out for that exhibit problem gambling, a gambling disorder or even pathological gambling. You should take breaks and seek help from the great wealth of resources available to you if you believe you could be suffering from problem gambling.

Most casual gamblers or players who don’t have a problem and can control their play will either stop when they are losing or not enjoying themselves or set a limit on how much time they want to spend or money they are willing to lose.

The issues that problem gamblers face is that they are compelled to keep on playing even through negative emotions, spend more time gambling than is recommended for sensible play or to try recover money they have lost. This pattern of behavior often becomes increasingly destructive over time with some even turning to theft or fraud to get money to gamble with.

The Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI) is a standardized measure of at-risk behavior in problem gambling, based on research into the common signs and consequences of problematic gambling. You can use a PGSI quiz to self-assess your gambling behavior over the past 12 months by scoring yourself against nine questions, that filter you into the following categories:

Players will find a number of responsible gambling tools are available at online casino apps that care about providing a safe environment for their users. These include:

If you have more questions about gambling cognitive biases or are wondering about healthy gambling practices then you can read these common questions and answers we’ve compiled below.

It may not be possible to avoid having a cognitive bias when it comes to gambling completely, but there are definitely ways you can control it. Encourage yourself to let go of beliefs that are not clinical or logical and implement betting strategies that focus on statistics and facts rather than feelings. You can also give yourself internal reminders and remove any distractions that affect your decision-making.

There are a number of factors that cause gamblers to suffer from cognitive bias such as emotions, individual motivations, limits on the brain’s ability to process information and social pressures. They can come in numerous forms with some of the most prevalent when gambling including the gambler’s fallacy, hot hands, the illusion of luck, illusion of control, illusion of expertise and unrealistic optimism. There are different types of cognitive bias including confirmation bias, availability bias, anchoring bios, the framing effect, attribution error, affinity bias, bandwagon effect and halo effect.

A poignant example of cognitive bias in everyday life involves availability bias and how people tend to rely on information that is readily available to them or focus on news stories that are currently happening rather than examine facts and statistics. For example, people may believe that flying is more dangerous than driving after a high-profile incident of a plane crashing, when the odds of dying in a car crash remain far higher.

There are a number of tools that players can implement to practice responsible gambling at online casinos, such as deposit limits, loss limits, session limits, wagering limits, reality checks, time outs as well as self-exclusion and a range of support groups and organizations.

Cognitive bias such as attentional bias, optimism bias and recall bias could hold you back from thinking realistically about your addition. Becoming aware of the cognitive bias that perpetuates your addiction can help you correct your thinking and take you closer to eradicating the problem.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.