Penn State is road favorite against Auburn, but history says to fade Nittany Lions

For the first time since the 2010 season, the Penn State Nittany Lions will be playing a true-road game against an SEC opponent.

Mark this game as a rarity, because the Nittany Lions have only played five times on the road against an SEC opponent since 1982, all of them against the Alabama Crimson Tide.

This will mark the first time Penn State will make the trip to Auburn and Jordan-Hare Stadium to face off against the Tigers. Before last season’s thrilling win at Beaver Stadium, the two had only met twice previously, in bowl games following the 1996 and 2003 seasons.

After dominating MAC opponent Ohio last Saturday, Penn State enters the game as three-point favorites among most sportsbooks, but the highest betting line can be found at FanDuel, where the Nittany Lions are listed as 3.5-point favorites against Auburn.

That hook, however, could be the difference between winning and losing the bet, though. If you remember, Penn State was also a 3.5 point-favorite opening the season on the road against Purdue, and we all saw how that turned out in the final moments.

While the Nittany Lions have already been battled tested, facing a Power 5 opponent, Auburn has not, facing off against San Jose State from the Mountain West and Mercer from the FCS.

» READ MORE: A visitor’s guide to Auburn for Penn State fans

All of this is setting up, on paper at least, for the newly ranked No. 22 Nittany Lions to roll on Saturday afternoon. But under James Franklin, and historically, Penn State has not fared well against SEC opponents.

Since Franklin took the reins in Happy Valley in 2014, Penn State has lost three of four matchups against SEC opponents (Georgia in 2015, Kentucky in 2018, Arkansas in 2021). The lone win came last season in State College, and in fact, Penn State hasn’t won a road game against an SEC opponent since 1986, beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa, 23-3.

In three loses under Franklin to SEC opponents, Penn State was a favorite in just one of those matchups (4.5-point favorite vs Kentucky in 2018), according to OddsShark, and failed to cover the spread in three of those matchups.

Since the start of the 2010 season, Penn State is just 1-6 against the spread vs. SEC schools and, since 1996, have failed to cover in nine of 13 contests, with two games ending in a push.

Not to mention that James Franklin last won a road SEC game at Vanderbilt in 2013 against Tennessee. While he was coaching the Commodores, Franklin faced Auburn just once, in the 2012 season, winning a close game at home against the Tigers.

Despite all of this, it would be unfair to mention last season’s game to disprove recent history. Many are expecting a down season from Auburn, with a new starting quarterback in the fold and the loss of some top players defensively.

Sean Clifford played well against this SEC defense last season, and has played much better the last five quarters as opposed to the first three to start the season.

Penn State should win Saturday, but covering the 3.5-point spread might be a tougher ask.

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