Jeff McLane’s keys to Eagles vs. Cowboys in Week 7 and a game prediction
Saquon Barkley's possible return could spark the struggling Eagles offense.
The Eagles host the Dallas Cowboys at 8:15 p.m. on Monday night at Lincoln Financial Field. Here’s what you need to know about the matchup:
When the Eagles have the ball: It’s bad vs. bad when the Eagles offense faces the Cowboys defense. We’re talking two of the worst units in the NFL on their respective sides of the ball. The statistics paint the horrid picture. The Eagles are last in yards per play (4.4), second to last in expected points added (EPA) per play, and third to last in success rate, while the Cowboys are second to last in yards allowed (382.5) and EPA per play, and have the fewest takeaways with three. This isn’t just a cherrypicking of numbers. Both groups rank near the bottom of the league in most categories.
Neither passes the eye test either. Dallas went from a historically poor defense last season to not much improvement, if at all. Christian Parker, formerly of the Eagles, was hired to install Vic Fangio’s tested scheme, but the first-time coordinator has struggled. Turns out it’s much harder to run someone else’s system than one you’ve innovated, as the Eagles have learned with neophyte offensive coordinator Sean Mannion. In all fairness, both coaches deserved a grace period, not only to learn on the job, but to gather pieces that are best suited to employ their schemes. But Mannion, especially, has been dealt one blow after the other, most recently with the loss of quarterback Jalen Hurts after blood clots formed in his lungs.
Tanner McKee wasn’t great in his first start under center last week, but he looked better than he did during the preseason and should benefit from a full week of preparation. He won’t have top receivers DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle), however, and that could be crippling even with running back Saquon Barkley (hamstring) slated to return after a two-game absence. Mannion has been unable to call a cohesive game plan or make necessary in-game adjustments and the mishmash of his new concepts with the Eagles’ existing ones has led to a disjointed mess. He said the offense is “totally fixable,” but with coach Nick Sirianni retaining him as play caller, and Mannion saying that any changes made this past week weren’t “earth shattering,” the prospects look dim.
That may just be gamesmanship, but it actually makes sense to lean into the outside zone game against a Cowboys run defense that is susceptible on the edges. It also makes sense to run away from interior linemen Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark. Dallas has allowed a NFL-worst 149.8 yards on the ground, but advanced analytics (21st in EPA per rush) suggest that stopping the run hasn’t been as much of an issue as defending the pass. The Cowboys are last in the league in EPA per pass.
Parker has brought Fangio’s match zones to Texas, but there have been clear communication breakdowns that have led to busted coverages. We’ve even seen the Eagles have trouble executing it this season with new faces in the secondary. Mannion should try to exploit the Cowboys’ miscommunications in pass-offs with motions and bunch sets. He should also go after cornerback DaRon Bland, who hasn’t adapted well to the changes. The arrival of counterpart Joey Porter Jr. after a trade with the Steelers only reinforces that McKee should throw at Bland. Parker may ride with more man coverage against a depleted receiver group. Mannion should counter with rub routes to get Makai Lemon open. This could be the breakout game for the rookie.
When the Cowboys have the ball: Dallas’ offense hasn’t been as potent as in recent seasons. But that doesn’t mean Dak Prescott and Co. should be underestimated. The quarterback is still one of the quicker throwers in the NFL and he still has superior receiving talent in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. But having Prescott dropping to throw more than 40 times a game has made the offense unbalanced and at times predictable. That’s made it easier for opposing defenses to pressure Prescott and he has hurried passes, particularly in back-to-back subpar outings.
I could see Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer trying to commit to the run early against the Eagles. Fangio’s run defense has allowed 119.3 yards a game, and has worn down late in contests partly because of lopsided time of possession. But it still ranks seventh best in the league in EPA per rush. Defensive tackles Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter continue to do the dirty work inside despite the Eagles having the lightest box rate in the league (64.1%). Dallas running back Javonte Williams is averaging more than a full yard per carry (3.7) less than he did a season ago (4.8), but he’s a physical runner especially if he rushes north to south behind guards Tyler Smith and Tyler Booker.
» READ MORE: Eagles vs. Cowboys predictions: Our writers pick a winner for Week 7
And yet, it makes sense for Schottenheimer to attack an Eagles’ pass defense that has one of the least productive rushes in the league. It ranks 29th in pressure rate and a more damning 32d in quick pressure rate, which indicts the D-linemen more than anyone. Carter has essentially been the only one up front to win at the point of attack and that was just against the Jaguars. The Cowboys’ O-line strength is up the middle. Their tackles — Tyler Guyton on the left and Terence Steele on the right — have allowed more combined pressures (32) than any combo. But the Eagles are down Nolan Smith Jr. (concussion) and possibly Jonathan Greenard (questionable with an ankle). Jalyx Hunt (ankle/knee) should be back, but the Eagles are thin on the edge.
Fangio has increasingly gone against his tendency to not blitz. He sent extra rushers 35.7% of the time last week vs. the Panthers. Some of the pressures worked, others did not and exposed linebacker Zack Baun on a crucial third down in the second half. Prescott has long been one of the best against the blitz, but that wasn’t the case against the Buccaneers and Packers the last two games. If Fangio can disguise his coverages and change the picture post-snap, it could give the rush the time it needs to get home.
The Eagles have been snake-bitten vs. under-center play-action passes. Offenses have preyed on safety Andrew Mukuba’s aggressiveness in particular. Inside linebacker Jihaad Campbell sometimes hasn’t gotten enough depth when he’s had to drop into the hole. Dallas employs a heavy 11-personnel shotgun operation, which should limit slot cornerback Cooper DeJean’s snaps at safety. He hasn’t been at his best in the dual role. Lamb doesn’t line up inside as much as he used to, but DeJean will see him on occasion. Lamb is third in the league in catches (48) and receiving yards (577) and has four touchdowns. Pickens (33 catches for 428 yards) hasn’t been as dynamic as he was a year ago, but outside corners Quinyon Mitchell and Riq Woolen will have their hands full.
Extra point: Dallas still has strong special teams, but itscover units have been leaky at times. Returner Kavontae Turpin (27.3 yards on kicks and 11.1 yards on punts) is always a threat to hit the jackpot. The Eagles have been decent in the return game. Punt returner Britain Covey ranks fourth in the league at 12.6 yards. But Michael Clay’s special teams, after four weeks as the soundest unit on the team, have made two untimely mistakes in allowing a devastating kick return and then a blocked punt.
Kicker Jake Elliott has had a bounce-back season, though, and has yet to miss a kick. Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey has three missed field goal attempts, but two were blocked from 58 and 62 yards and a 65-yarder steered wide left. He always has enough leg, even away from AT&T Stadium.
The Cowboys defense showed some positive signs last week in Green Bay. Parker is likely looking at the Eagles offense as a chance to build some momentum. Mannion should feel the same from the other side. But his offense is shorthanded again and McKee will need all the help he can get. I have an odd feeling the Eagles will keep this one close. We’ve seen it in each of the previous three games despite all the injuries. How much longer can Sirianni keep his players focused on the task at hand? He’s running out of time. I think they still have fight.
Prediction: Eagles, 19-17.
The Eagles seem reluctant to address the handling of the Jalen Hurts blood clots saga, but the key questions involved in the story aren’t going anywhere. Throughout the week, in the absence of remarks from general manager Howie Roseman or team medical personnel, head coach Nick Sirianni was peppered by reporters. He’s offered few details in return. After speaking with high-ranking medical officials currently or previously employed by NFL teams, The Inquirer’s Jeff McLane frames four central issues that remain unanswered, while also looking at what this situation means for Hurts’ future in Philadelphia. Listen here.
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