Republican Scott Perry in dead heat with Democrat Janelle Stelson in central Pa. race that could decide House control

U.S. Rep. Scott Perry and his Democratic challenger, Janelle Stelson, are in a dead heat in their rematch to represent the Harrisburg area in Congress, despite deep dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump among voters in the district.

A little more than a week away from the Nov. 3 election, the candidates in the 10th Congressional District are tied at 48%, according to a new poll from The Inquirer, the New York Times, and Siena University. The poll has a margin of error of 5.6 to 5.7 percentage points.

Perry is the only Republican incumbent in the state’s four swing districts who did not trail his Democratic opponent in the set of surveys released Sunday. The four districts could decide control of the U.S. House.

The Republican, who has unabashedly embraced Trump, eked out a narrow win over Stelson two years ago when Trump won the district and the state, but this year the president is underwater in the district, with 55% disapproval compared with 43% approval, according to the poll of 404 likely voters conducted between Oct. 16 and 22.

The 10th District race has grown increasingly bitter and personal between the two candidates — and their supporters — as Election Day approaches, but neither Stelson nor Perry has been able to pull away into a clear lead.

Voters in the poll gave Stelson, a former TV anchor, a more favorable view when judging the candidates on issues related to character, the cost of living, and tackling corruption, but they gave Perry the edge on handling foreign wars and immigration.

“I think [Perry] has done a pretty good job,” said Richard Shroy, 73, a Republican. He got to know Perry while working in Dauphin County and said the incumbent was competent and reliable.

Gabriel Robinson, 52, said the economy has been a drag on him and is among his top concerns heading into the midterm elections.

“I’m feeling it at the tank. I’m feeling it at the grocery store. I’m feeling it in my industry,” said Robinson, a Democrat from Cumberland County.

An HVAC salesman, he said his sales are down as more customers try to fix their older appliances rather than buy new ones. He is voting for Stelson, he said, because he is ready for a change in Congress.

“Scott Perry is 100% with Trump,” he said.

Democrats are hoping Harrisburg and its affluent suburbs will be part of the next wave of districts to flip blue, as Philadelphia’s collar counties did years before.

Perry, first elected to Congress in 2012, has held on to his seat in multiple elections even when being out-raised, including in 2024 against Stelson. (She also holds a cash advantage this year.)

But this time around Gov. Josh Shapiro is also on the ballot — polling strongly in the district — and Democrats are hoping he can help elevate Stelson and other battleground candidates.

A 57% majority of voters in the district approve of the governor, the poll found, compared with 38% who disapprove.

But even in an unfavorable environment for Republicans, Stelson has not won over all of Shapiro’s supporters, a bloc that includes 14% of 2024 Trump voters.

Cathy Hughes, an unaffiliated voter who voted for Trump three times, said she plans to split her ticket and vote for Shapiro and Perry this year.

“I feel people have to give President Trump his next two years to get everything done, and I think in another year, we will be rolling,” said Hughes, 74. She sees reelecting Perry as key to that mission and said Stelson would be an obstacle.

“Democrats are going to go to Congress, and the first thing they’re going to do — and I don’t care what anybody says — is impeach President Trump,” said Hughes, a retired nurse.

For longtime residents, each candidate also brings familiarity. Perry has represented the district for years, and Stelson, a longtime local news anchor for NBC affiliate WGAL, was broadcast on TV screens in many of their homes.

“I grew up in the area, so I know her as our TV news anchor and always thought she was pleasant,” Robinson said.

Trump’s weakest area in the district is pocketbook concerns. Only 36% of voters approve of his handling of cost-of-living issues, and 62% disapprove. And economic issues top the list of voters’ most important concerns determining their choice.

That could be a hurdle for Perry.

“Our economy is terrible. People aren’t making enough,” said Susan Wert, a 57-year-old nurse in Cumberland County. She calls Trump “an embarrassment to our country” who wants to be a king.

To get the country back on track, said Wert, a Democrat, she supports Stelson.

Voters in the poll gave Stelson a 50%-to-43% edge over Perry on trusting she would do a better job of handling cost-of-living issues. By the same ratio, they trust her more than Perry to do what is best for ordinary Pennsylvanians.

“Republicans, to me personally, they’ve done enough damage. Now somebody needs to fix it, and I think that [Stelson] will do her best to try,” Wert said.

Many voters also linked high gas prices and the war in Iran, which Trump initiated with Israel earlier this year. In retaliation for military strikes, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which barrels of oil flow, which several experts said spiked the price at the pump.

The fluctuation in prices was enough to persuade Tom Myers, a 75-year-old Republican from Dauphin County, to vote for Stelson in the contest to put a check on Trump.

Myers blamed Trump’s decision during his first presidency to withdraw from former President Barack Obama’s Iran nuclear deal for creating the current predicament.

“We shouldn’t be there,” he said. “I mean, yes, they were going to possibly have a nuclear weapon, but Trump tore up the treaty that was in place, which is what precipitated this whole thing.”

Alfred Milbourne, a 73-year-old retired truck driver, put it more bluntly: “I don’t trust Scott. I don’t trust nothing about him. [Perry] believes in bombing places and not helping the American public.”

“He’s a Trump guy, and Trump people need to be out of there,” added Milbourne, a Democrat.

But Hughes said she still plans to back the president and Perry even though she has struggled to afford food after her husband died in 2023 and her car recently broke down. She has written multiple letters to Trump with advice, including encouraging him to end the war in Iran, she recalled.

“It’s hard for people right now because of the gas prices and because of oil and because of the grocery store,” she said. But, she added, “it’s not really [Trump’s] fault. I mean, we can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon.”

The campaign has grown particularly acrimonious with both Perry and Stelson making strong accusations about each other’s character.

Stelson has attacked Perry, the former chair of the House Freedom Caucus, for his role in seeking to overturn the 2020 election in hopes of keeping Trump in office after his loss to Joe Biden.

Meanwhile, Perry has attempted to brand Stelson, a former Republican, as a socialist.

It is a point that has resonated with Stefan Szurdi, 70, who immigrated to the U.S. from Austria and became a U.S. citizen in the 1990s.

“When I hear the word socialist, it irritates me because I used to live in it,” said Szurdi, a Republican who now lives in Dauphin County. “I’m conservative. I pay my taxes and leave me alone.”

From his own experiences immigrating to the U.S., Szurdi, who said he “went by the rules” and expects everybody else to do so as well, said he aligns with Perry and supports Trump’s efforts to ramp up enforcement.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents are “doing a great job, and it’s just unfortunate all the protesting against them,” he said.

Perry has also sought to tie Stelson to a Nigerian man who authorities said was in the country illegally and found with Stelson’s campaign flyers inside his car. Stelson, during the candidates’ Oct. 14 debate, said the man was not an employee of her campaign or a volunteer.

Still, the accusation lingered and has cast a shadow on Stelson’s campaign for some voters.

“You can’t keep giving to people who are here illegally when the country has more than enough people here legally that are not receiving the help that they need,” said Janice Yeager, 63, of York County, who is supporting Perry.

When it comes to immigration, voters in the district trust Perry over Stelson, 50% to 45%, the poll found.

But even among those who agree changes were needed in the U.S. immigration system, many thought ICE has gone too far in its enforcement.

Alaina Snyder, a 23-year-old cashier, said she plans to vote for Stelson, who she believes stands up for human rights.

“She doesn’t believe that ICE should be on the streets hurting people,” said Snyder, who lives in Harrisburg. Perry she sees as being “fully for ICE and handling things with whatever cost necessary, and it’s just not necessarily safe for people.”

For Democrats like Snyder and others, Election Day cannot come soon enough.

“I just am so over the Republican Party in all ways, and I would vote for anybody who was running against any Republican right now, but especially [Perry],” said Matthew Fahnestock, 47, a Democrat from Cumberland County who teaches high school.

“He just seems completely out of touch with a district like ours.”

More from The Inquirer/NYT/Siena poll

The New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University poll of Pennsylvania was funded by a grant from The Lenfest Institute for Journalism. The poll was designed and conducted independently from the institute.

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