Pitching prospect to Groome for the future

AT FIRST glance, it seemed too tidy. On Monday night, the best high school pitcher in the country took the mound within long-tossing distance of Citizens Bank Park, the home of the team that happens to be picking first in next month's MLB draft.

If Jason Groome had looked to the right before toeing the rubber, he would've seen the Philadelphia skyline peeking behind the second deck at Campbell's Field in Camden. As the sun set over the Delaware, the hulking southpaw was pitching in the shadow of the city he could call home. Literally.

"I'm just glad we drew a good crowd," Groome said after striking out 14 in front of the 6,000-plus who turned out to watch him square off against Florida State commitment Tyler Mondile in Barnegat High's 1-0 loss to Gloucester Catholic.

It was an easy story. Too easy, perhaps. As Groome and his teammates took the field in a prime-time showdown, the conventional wisdom among the draftnik set was that the Phillies would be looking elsewhere at No. 1.

It's a line of thinking that is very much grounded in reason. Teams seldom take high school pitchers No. 1 overall. Since the 1994 strike, it's happened exactly once. That was 2014, and Brady Aiken never signed with the Astros (that's a long story . . . Google it). Teams that are bad enough to have the No. 1 pick are in desperate need of sure things, and there is nothing less sure than a 17-year-old kid who throws heat. Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, David Price - those are the kinds of pitchers teams like to take No. 1 overall. Groome has that kind of potential. But he's several years younger than those guys were when they were drafted.

And yet . . .

This might not be the year for convention. The caliber of prospects at the top of this draft is widely regarded as one of the weaker crops in recent history. That's due largely to the absence of the exact kind of player most Phillies fans covet: an advanced hitter with plug-and-play potential, someone in the mold of Kris Bryant or Bryce Harper, someone who might help the Phillies before Aaron Nola and Maikel Franco approach free agency. This 22-17 start can prompt even the most ardent realist to think, "Man, if they can just strike gold next month . . . "

But that's a great way to get yourself in trouble in any draft. The Phillies need to focus on nabbing the prospect who offers the best combination of risk and reward, not the one who can help them the soonest. In a perfect world, that would be a college hitter. The first two college hitters drafted in 2014 were in the MLB playoffs the following season. The Mets' Michael Conforto, the No. 10 pick out of Oregon State, entered Monday with a .282/.353/.508 batting line and five home runs in 124 at-bats for the Mets. The Cubs' Kyle Schwarber, the No. 4 pick that year out of Indiana, posted a .842 OPS and 16 home runs in 232 at-bats last season. He is currently recovering from a season-ending knee injury.

Kris Bryant, the No. 2 overall pick in 2013 behind current Phillies farmhand Mark Appel, hit 26 home runs with an .858 OPS with the Cubs last season and has an .828 OPS and six home runs in 142 at-bats this season. Last year, the Astros took LSU standout Alex Bregman at No. 2. He entered Monday hitting .310/.420/.631 with seven home runs, nine strikeouts and 13 walks in 101 plate appearances at Double A Corpus Christi. Dansby Swanson, drafted by the Diamondbacks out of Vanderbilt with the the No. 1 overall pick last year, entered Monday hitting .268/.369/.429 with a home run, seven strikeouts and seven walks at Double A Mississippi, albeit without much power.

According to most scouts, there is no Bryant this year, nor are there any Carlos Correas or Harpers. ESPN's Keith Law calls Louisville outfielder Corey Ray the safest all-around college position player and has him No. 1 in his most recent rankings. The Phillies would love to find a future fixture for their lineup, and Pat Gillick has been a regular at high school baseball fields this spring, with the former Phillies GM recently checking out Blake Rutherford and Mickey Moniak, both outfielders from Southern California.

Many experts have the Phillies taking Florida lefty pitcher A.J. Puk, but he has enough question marks to wonder how much "safer" he is than his counterparts.

Which is why you shouldn't count out Groome. His smooth delivery is reminiscent of former Phillies ace Cole Hamels, and he already has an impressive breaking pitch that he commanded with precision against Gloucester Catholic on Monday. The scouts say his fastball sits in the low 90s, and he throws it without much effort. He has a broad frame with a wide lower half, and remarkably polished mechanics. Oh, and he struck out the last eight batters he faced Monday night.

In a year with no clear-cut best player available at No. 1, the Phillies will take on significant risk wherever they turn. Groome might be as good a bet as any.

@ByDavidMurphy

Blog: philly.com/Philliesblog