🗳️ As seen on TV: Pa. debate and a House ad blitz | PA 2026 Newsletter
🚁 Plus, there’s a new commonality between LeBron James and Josh Shapiro.
📅 There are 25 days until Election Day.
There’s a governor’s race at the top of the November ticket. But this week might have been the first time some Pennsylvanians heard of it — or, at least, learned who is challenging Gov. Josh Shapiro, as state Treasurer Stacy Garrity lags behind him by 25 points in the latest statewide poll of likely voters and remains unknown by a quarter of her own party.
🎤 I’m Gillian McGoldrick, The Inquirer’s Harrisburg reporter, and I’ve been following all the twists and turns of Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial election that date back to late 2024. It was then when Republicans were determining who they’d choose for the top of the ticket, in hopes of avoiding the same downballot repercussions they saw with an unpopular gubernatorial candidate in 2022 — and with an overall goal to more seriously challenge Shapiro.
We sat down with Garrity last week to learn more about the retired U.S. Army colonel and business executive who has struggled to compete with Shapiro’s deep pockets and multi-million dollar weekly ad buys — and why she thinks President Donald Trump may still come to Pennsylvania to stump for her ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
The two candidates also met on the debate stage on Wednesday, in what was Shapiro’s first debate since 2016. (Practicing for 2028, anyone?) Both gave even-tempered and well-rehearsed showings that could make or break their political futures, as Garrity needed to give an attention-grabbing performance to help salvage her campaign, while Shapiro wanted to dominate as part of his efforts to generate enthusiasm for Democrats to help flip the U.S. House and get a trifecta in Harrisburg.
📩It’s up to you to decide how they did — drop me a line (gmcgoldrick@inquirer.com) and tell me your favorite moments from the 2026 governor’s debate, hosted by Harrisburg’s abc27.
In this edition:
🗳️ Head-to-head: Shapiro and Garrity sparred over Trump’s leadership, the state budget deficit, and more in their lone debate ahead of Election Day.
🗳️'The cavalry will be coming’: Why Garrity still expects help competing against Shapiro, as Republicans face strong national headwinds.
🗳️ House wars: Both House Speaker Mike Johnson and Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries are making trips to Pennsylvania, signaling how critical they consider four Pennsylvania congressional races in deciding which party controls the U.S. House.
— Gillian McGoldrick, Fallon Roth, Michelle Baruchman, Sam Janesch, (pa2026@inquirer.com)
The latest
Shapiro, in his quest to flip four Republican-held congressional districts in Pennsylvania, dubbed Republican Brian Fitzpatrick’s seat “the most competitive in the entire commonwealth” as he stumped for Democrat Bob Harvie.
The unreleased full batch of Jeffrey Epstein investigation files have been a thorn in Republicans’ sides since Trump pledged during his campaign to release them all, only to change course in office. This week, Harvie said he would push “very, very hard” to release the full unredacted files if elected.
Philly State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta said his colleague in the state House should resign after he reportedly used a homophobic slur against him.
And across the river, Democrats are expanding their horizons with growing optimism in the midterms — including by adding Republican Jeff Van Drew’s seat in South Jersey to their list of targets.
We’re approaching the final three weeks until Election Day and both parties are pouring all they can into getting their message out to voters (read: back-to-back TV ads) in Pennsylvania’s key swing districts. Let’s follow the money:
📺 Out of the state’s four competitive congressional races, the 7th District contest between Democrat Bob Brooks and U.S. Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, who is considered to be one of the most vulnerable Republicans on the ballot this cycle, is by far the most expensive, with $27.8 million in total in ad spends and reservations between June and December, according to media tracking firm AdImpact.
Democrats have allocated roughly $10 million in advertising so far to the general election race in the 7th, which is based in the Lehigh Valley, and the party’s top advertiser is the House Majority PAC. The GOP has earmarked about $17 million, and the Republicans’ top advertiser in the 7th is the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC.
📺 Up in the Scranton area, where Democrat Paige Cognetti is challenging GOP U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan, spending is pretty close between Democrats and Republicans — each allocating about $12 million in spending and reservations between June and December. In the Harrisburg-based 10th District, between Democrat Janelle Stelson and Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry, it’s also a pretty tight money race, as Democrats have spent $9.9 million on ad buys, while the GOP has spent $11.5 million
📺 The least expensive is the 1st Congressional District (a total of $13.6 million in spends and reservations), but Democrats, with Harvie at the top of the ticket, are outdoing the GOP in ad buys at the moment by roughly $3 million, including a recent boost in attention from party leaders and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Fitzpatrick, the longtime GOP incumbent, is spending and reserving far more on ads than he has before — $4.5 million in total between June and December.
During the entirety of his 2024 reelection bid, Fitzpatrick’s campaign spent roughly $460,000 on ads.
Campaign scrapple
🚁 High flyers: There’s a new commonality between LeBron James and Josh Shapiro, besides their love of basketball: The helicopter James is using to commute between Philadelphia and New York City is provided by Fanatics, the multibillion-dollar sports empire led by Shapiro’s longtime friend Michael Rubin. Rubin previously allowed Shapiro to use the same luxury helicopter with the same tail number — in addition to three others owned by Rubin — amounting to a total $68,000 in in-kind contributions in 2024, according to campaign finance and flight records. (H/t to SpotlightPA’s Stephen Caruso for first pointing it out.)
💍 He went to Jarrett: Democrats are borrowing the popular jewelry store’s motto in a new negative ad about State Sen. Jarrett Coleman (R., Lehigh/Bucks) as they target his seat in hopes of flipping the state Senate to their control for the first time in 30 years.
In an interview with The Inquirer last week, Garrity discussed her military background, policy positions, and the status of her campaign against Shapiro. She’s been largely financially abandoned by state and national Republicans as they spend resources elsewhere. With less than a month until the election, she said she hopes they’ll still come through.
What we’re watching
🤑 Candidates for Congress will file their latest campaign finance reports next week, offering insight into the kinds of crucial resources they’ll need for the final weeks of their campaigns. Democratic challengers in Pennsylvania’s four competitive districts have previously out-raised the Republican incumbents — except for one: Harvie’s campaign against Fitzpatrick in Bucks. Stay tuned as our team dives into the details.
➡️ Also on tap in a competitive district: A high-profile debate between Republican U.S. Rep. Scott Perry and Democrat Janelle Stelson in the competitive Harrisburg-based seat. Viewers can catch it Wednesday on abc27 in Harrisburg, or abc27.com.
👋 Another busy week in Pennsylvania politics is in the books! We’ll see you in your inbox next Friday with all the latest midterm election news.
