The host with the most | PA 2024 Newsletter

📅 There are 17 days until Election Day.

In this edition:

— Julia Terruso, Sean Collins Walsh, Katie Bernard, Aliya Schneider, Oona Goodin-Smith, pa2024@inquirer.com

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📮Have a question about this election? Email us and we’ll try to answer it in a future newsletter.

As the presidential race in Pennsylvania remains neck-and-neck with Harris narrowly leading Trump according to our new poll, the candidates and their surrogates have practically moved in, with back-to-back visits to the Philly suburbs and beyond. National politics reporter Julia Terruso breaks it down.

🍫 Like a pack of trick-or-treaters hunting for the swing state’s sweet king-sized electoral bounty, the presidential candidates, their running mates, family members and surrogates — harkening from Hollywood to D.C. — were traipsing all over Pennsylvania this week.

It’s getting hard to keep track of them all.

Trump swayed on stage in a cavernous expo center on Monday in Oaks, his first public event in the Philly suburbs of his campaign. He’ll hold a rally in ruby red Latrobe (home to the famous Trump store) on Saturday, a town hall in Lancaster on Sunday, and is reportedly also going to find time to both work a fryer at a McDonald’s somewhere in the state and pop into the home Steelers game being broadcasted on Sunday Night Football.

Harris called for Republicans to choose country over party in front of a white barn in Washington Crossing, overlooking the Delaware River in Bucks County. The symbolism was a nice touch, we thought, though her reminder that the election is less than 20 days away as the leaves changed around her gave us heart palpitations.

Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance tried to shore up the “mom vote,” with a conservative moms group in Montgomery County on Tuesday, where he talked about illegal immigration and school curriculum regarding race and gender. He also held a rally in Williamsport, Lycoming County on Wednesday, where he falsely claimed Trump did not lose in 2020, and then delivered remarks at a downtown Pittsburgh hotel on Thursday.

Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, sported his finest red and black flannel during a swing through Butler and Lawrence Counties meant to appeal to rural voters.

His wife, Gwen, joined for part of that tour and was also in Easton, Northampton County (a Lehigh Valley swing county) and then in Chester County earlier in the week.

Then there were the surrogates. President Joe Biden spoke to anxious Democrats in Philadelphia as first lady Jill Biden returned to her stomping grounds and spoke to voters in Montgomery County. The Harris campaign sent U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez to drum up support among Latino voters in Philly and actress Christine Baranski headlined an event for Polish Americans in Luzerne County.

Of course, it’s no surprise the campaigns are zeroing in on our region at this stage in the game. Philly’s suburbs are home to roughly 30% of Pennsylvania’s voters — with a population larger than Chicago’s — and are key to securing the commonwealth’s electoral votes on Nov. 5.

That said, maybe Michigan, Wisconsin, or Georgia will give us a hosting reprieve next week. 😮‍💨

🚨 Some Philly Democratic officials and operatives are sounding alarms about Harris’ campaign operation in the city. One complaint: that Mayor Cherelle L. Parker hasn’t had a bigger role.

🧑‍💻 Misinformation, litigation, and potential certification delays: Pennsylvania election officials say they’re preparing for the worst in November. “The longer it takes to decide who the winner is, the more opportunity there is for unrest,” said one official.

🚩 Elon Musk has emerged as a major backer of Trump’s campaign, donating nearly $75 million to his own America PAC, which fuels Trump voter mobilization efforts. He spoke in Delco this week, though the event registration raised some red flags.

💰 The campaigns and outside spending groups trying to influence Pennsylvania’s nationally watched U.S. Senate race spent a combined $234 million through the end of September, with Republican Dave McCormick benefiting from a $21 million edge over Democratic incumbent Bob Casey.

🏛️ From same-sex marriage to gun control, Casey has changed his position on many issues since he was elected 18 years ago. It reflects a trend political scientists have been tracking for years.

🗣️Trump’s attacks on Haitian immigrants in the tiny Western Pennsylvania borough of Charleroi have thrust the town into an unwanted national spotlight. Said one Haitian store owner, who supported Trump until his comments hurt her feelings and business: “I gotta be with my people.”

🔵 Former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, a Republican, has entered the fray in a Lehigh Valley congressional race that could determine control of the U.S. House — to endorse the Democrat.

🔴 In Delco, a small group of protesters entered the county’s Trump headquarters, cornering two volunteers. “It was total intimidation,” said the county chair.

💸 The minimum wage in Pennsylvania is $7.25 an hour — one of the lowest in the country. Voters in the commonwealth overwhelmingly support increasing it, though legislation has stalled for years.

🎤 We’re passing the mic to City Hall reporter Sean Collins Walsh, who is covering Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race, to explain what our latest poll shows:

Despite holding a significant polling lead for months, U.S. Sen. Bob Casey (D., Pa.) has said all year that he expects his race against Republican challenger Dave McCormick to become very close in the final days.

💡 It’s starting to look like he was right. Casey’s lead shrank from 9 percentage points in mid-September to just 4 percentage points less than a month later, according to the latest poll from The Inquirer, The New York Times, and Siena College.

📊 About 48% of of the 857 likely Pennsylvania voters in the poll said they supported Casey, and 44% backed McCormick. The survey was conducted between Oct. 7 and Oct. 10, and the margin of error was 3.3%.

What’s really happening here? Casey, a well-known incumbent seeking a fourth term, isn’t so much losing ground as McCormick is gaining ground. Casey’s numbers have stayed roughly flat at just under 50% throughout the race. But McCormick, who is making his second run for office, has seen his support grow from the low- to mid-40s as more voters become more aware of him, especially those in the GOP base.

🗳️ The question now is whether McCormick can continue his upward surge beyond reliable Republicans and win over the swing voters he’ll need to surpass Casey.

📈 The Philly suburbs, again: Before Monday, Harris, Trump, and their running mates had made a collective three trips to Philadelphia’s suburbs. They doubled that number in three days this week, with Trump making an appearance in Montco on Monday, followed by Vance on Tuesday and Harris in Bucks on Wednesday. Return trips are already in the works for Harris and Trump as both campaigns turn their focus to get-out-the vote efforts in the final stretch of the campaign. It’s a reminder that, while Philly’s collar counties weren’t a huge focus for either candidate over the summer, they’re still home to an immense number of voters both candidates will need to turn out to help their statewide margins.

📉 Rooting for the Steelers: Dave McCormick, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, was accused this week of mixing up the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles. In a series of posts on X, McCormick shared photos of himself tailgating with Eagles fans in Philly, writing, “Excited to watch the Steelers throttle the Raiders!” “Ah yes, the Philadelphia Steelers,” someone responded. Others blamed the alleged mix-up on McCormick’s years living in Connecticut. A McCormick spokesperson told Newsweek that there wasn’t a mistake, and that McCormick, of Pittsburgh, just really likes the Steelers. It wasn’t the first time the candidate has been accused of mixing up his Pennsylvania geography, like when he seemed to confuse Philadelphia, Miss. with the City of Brotherly Love. In any case, go Birds.

Trump’s town hall in Montgomery County took an unorthodox turn this week as he shifted from a question-and-answer session to a playlist listening party. Julia describes the scene inside the Greater Philadelphia Expo Center:

It all started very normally — or as normal as covering politics in 2024 can be.

The press gathered in a pen in the middle of the Greater Philadelphia Expo Center as Trump supporters streamed in for his first public event in the suburbs. The town hall started — close to an hour late — but candidates are often running behind during campaign season. South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem was introduced as the emcee. She referred to Oaks as “the city where the Constitution was written.”

Not quite. “I know you all embrace being the City of Brotherly Love, but I’m gonna get real with you, Kamala Harris sucks,” she said to cheers.

Trump took questions on the economy, housing prices and foreign wars. When Heather, a former Democrat, came to the mic to ask how Trump would deport criminals, the crowd on the left side of the room started gesturing for attention. A man had fainted and after about 10 minutes he was brought out, alert and upright, on a stretcher.

Then as they resumed, just a few minutes later, a woman fainted on the other side of the room, prompting Trump to (again) request “Ave Maria” be played as people used their “TRUMP 47″ signs to fan the person in need.

Trump made the comment about scrapping the rest of the town hall and listening to music, and then the facilities folks opened up some garage doors to let more air into the building. For a few minutes, it seemed unclear how things would proceed. “Sir, do you want to play your song and greet a few people?” Noem asked, to clarify what the plan was. And then he stood there, requesting song after song, swaying and pointing to supporters in the crowd.

By the time “Memory” from Cats started, about 30 minutes after the last town hall question, Noem, who had been standing beside Trump for more than 25 minutes, gave up on the forced dancing and perched on one of the chairs on stage. In the press stands, we all scrambled to retool our stories.

Voting is well underway in Pennsylvania. Here’s what you need to know:

📅 Oct. 21 is the deadline to register in Pennsylvania to vote in the election. Questions on your voter registration? We’ve got you covered.

📅 Oct. 29 is the deadline to request a mail ballot, which must be returned by 8 p.m. on Election Day.

📅 Nov. 5 is Election Day.

🗳️ Several lawsuits could change the rules for which ballots are and are not counted in November.

✉️ Mail ballots across Philly showed up with the return envelopes already sealed. Here’s what to do if that happened to you.

⏳ While Pittsburgh will likely finish counting mail ballots on Election Day, Philadelphia’s process may take more time.

📋 Want to learn more about the candidates on your ballot? The Inquirer voters guide has you covered with key facts on every major race.

➡️ The campaign that started on a golden escalator is headed to the Golden Arches. Trump is expected to “work the fry cooker” at a suburban Pennsylvania McDonald’s this weekend. Meanwhile, Harris is slated to visit Delco on Wednesday for a CNN town hall hosted by Anderson Cooper.

➡️ As Election Day draws ever closer, here are the six voter trends that could decide Pennsylvania for Harris or Trump.

👋 Thanks for following along, and we’ll see you next Friday.