Bet Iowa State to win battle royal in college basketball’s best conference

It’s not often that you can honestly say as many as seven teams have a realistic shot to win a conference tournament — especially when that conference only has 10 members.

Of course, it’s not often that a conference is as loaded as the Big 12 this year.

Widely regarded as the best league in college basketball — not only this season but in recent memory — the Big 12 sets up shop in Kansas City this week for a conference tournament that figures to be as competitive as its tightly contested regular season race.

And just as unpredictable.

But predict we must, which we do at the end of this comprehensive Big 12 Tournament betting preview.

Odds updated as of 8:45 p.m. ET on March 6.

Two games. That’s what separated the top four teams — Kansas, Texas, Kansas State and Baylor — in the regular season standings. That quartet comprises the primary favorites in Kansas City this week. But two other teams — TCU and Iowa State — also sport reasonable Big 12 Tournament odds.

Together, the six squads have tournament odds ranging from +275 to +800 at BetMGM; +250 to +800 at Caesars Sportsbook; and +250 to +1100 at FanDuel.

Even eighth-place West Virginia — which lost 11 of 18 league games but closed the regular season with consecutive wins over Iowa State and Kansas State — is a borderline threat at +1600 (both BetMGM and Caesars).

While the tournament is very much up for grabs, there’s no arguing that Kansas (25-6 overall, 14-17 ATS) deserves to be the betting favorite. Sure, the Jayhawks no-showed in Saturday’s 75-59 loss at Texas. But they entered the game on a seven-game winning streak and already wrapped up the outright regular season title. So it was a total flat spot for Bill Self’s squad.

The next hottest team among the group of favorites entering this week? It would have to be Kansas State. The Wildcats (23-8, 16-15 ATS) had a four-game winning streak halted Saturday at West Virginia.

Baylor (22-9, 16-14-1 ATS) is 12-3 in its last 15. However, the trio of setbacks came in the Bears’ last five contests (including Saturday’s ugly 73-58 home loss to Iowa State).

Also, Texas (23-8, 14-17 ATS) is 4-4 in its last eight; TCU (20-11, 15-15-1 ATS) is 3-6 in its last nine; and Iowa State’s upset at Baylor ended a four-game slide. Even with the victory, the Cyclones (18-12, 15-15 ATS) are just 4-9 in their last 13.

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Just how good are the teams that finished in the top seven of the Big 12? They’re nestled between No. 8 and No. 25 in analytics expert KenPom’s rankings.

That includes West Virginia, which is No. 17 in KenPom — better than Kansas State (No. 18), Iowa State (No. 22) and TCU (No. 25).

Even the remaining Big 12 members — Oklahoma State (No. 40), Oklahoma (No. 51) and Texas Tech (No. 53) — are in the KenPom top 55.

The league is that deep. So any of the sleepers — of which we’ll count West Virginia — could wreak havoc on the Big 12 Tournament bracket this week.

Seriously, check this out:

Translation: Even if there is a shocking upset or two in Kansas City this week, would it really be that shocking?

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It’s difficult to make a case for Iowa State based on how it stumbled to the finish line. Then you look at the Big 12 Tournament bracket and suddenly the Cyclones’ cloudy prospects become a bit sunnier.

Here’s why: They open with a quick-turnaround rematch with Baylor in Thursday’s quarterfinals. With two 15-point wins that bookended the league season, both by near identical scores — 77-62 at home, 73-58 on the road — it’s clear that Iowa State’s defense gives the Bears fits.

If the Cyclones get past Baylor, they draw Kansas in the semifinals. Well, one of Iowa State’s three wins in its last 11 games was a 68-53 home beatdown of the Jayhawks.

Three weeks prior to that, the Cyclones nearly topped Kansas in Lawrence (62-60 loss).

Pull off the upset against the Jayhawks and Iowa State almost certainly would be matched against Texas, TCU or Kansas State in the championship game. The Cyclones swept TCU, beat Texas and K-State at home and lost to both on the road.

Add it up and Iowa State went 7-3 against its most likely opponents this week (with the losses to Kansas and K-State by a total of eight points). That’s a program that’s far better than the +1100 odds FanDuel is generously offering — and it’s a program that has won four Big 12 tourney crowns since 2014.

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The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.