Five best strategies and tips to help you win your NCAA Tournament pool

Newsflash: The half-dozen NCAA Tournament brackets you’ve already filled out? None are going to be perfect — or anywhere close to perfect.

But when it comes to the March Madness bracket, perfection isn’t the goal. It’s all about accumulating enough points to win the countless family, friends and office pools you plan to enter.

To that end, here are five strategies to employ before officially submitting those brackets you’ve already completed — and the many others still to come.

The NCAA Tournament selection committee may have had the final say on the makeup of the 2023 March Madness bracket.

However, those committee members simply filled empty slots using a collective power ranking that rated teams from No. 1 to No. 68.

In other words, aside from adhering to the archaic rule that prohibits conference rivals from facing off in the first two rounds, they didn’t give two wits about the early-round matchups.

You should give two wits — many more than two, in fact. Because the best way to win your bracket pool is to analyze each first-round matchup and the potential matchups to follow.

The seeds? They matter at the high end, but not so much in the middle.

In fact, look at the betting odds for the four No. 7 vs. No. 10 matchups this week. Based on the seedings, each No. 7 seed should be solidly favored, and roughly by the same number.

Not the case, as you can see when checking BetMGM’s odds board:

So only one No. 7 seed is a definitive favorite. Two others are barely favored, and the fourth is an underdog.

The best bracket approach to take? Think of all three weekends that comprise March Madness as separate two-game mini tournaments for the teams involved.

Then make your picks according to the matchups you project for each of those mini tournaments.

» READ MORE: Bet on these NCAA Tournament first-round upsets in each region

One sure-fire way to lose your bracket pool: Pick the top four seeds in each region to advance to the Sweet 16.

It’s just not going to happen. In fact, since the current tournament format was adopted in 1985, No. 3 and No. 4 seeds have advanced to the second round a combined 283 times. Only 180 of those teams (63.6%) won their next game to reach the Sweet 16.

So going all chalk with your bracket just isn’t going to pay off. But neither is picking a slew of crazy upsets.

Yes, St. Peter’s became the first No. 15 seed to reach the Sweet 16 ( the Peacocks made it all the way to the Elite 18). Also, in the last seven NCAA Tournaments, 14 teams seeded No. 13 or lower have won first-round games.

Not bad … until you realize that 98 of the other teams seeded 13th or lower went one and done.

Overall, the bottom four seeds are 54-458 (11.8%) in the first round in the modern era with just 11 Sweet 16 appearances and one victory (that being St. Peter’s).

Throw in No. 11 and No. 12 seeds and the first-round record for the bottom six seeds goes to 145-623 (23.3%) with just 22 Sweet 16 appearances and 12 victories.

So by all means, pick a few early-round upsets. But keep those stunners confined to the first round or two — and don’t get carried away.

It happens every single year: Minutes after the March Madness bracket is revealed, the public — from traditional media pundits to social media know-it-alls — latch on to some lower-seeded long shots.

Worse, they tacitly — if not directly — encourage you to do the same.

Don’t get hooked by this bait. Because it rarely pans out.

Not surprisingly, this year’s trendy teams include all four No. 12 seeds: College of Charleston (South Region), Drake (Midwest), Oral Roberts (East) and VCU (West). No. 13 seeds Furman (South), Kent State (Midwest) and Iona (West) also are getting some love.

We’re not saying some of these trendy squads won’t spring upsets — in fact, we like VCU, Kent State and Furman in their opening-round games.

But all of them winning in the opening round? Doubtful. Any of them advancing beyond the first weekend? Highly unlikely.

» READ MORE: March Madness brackets: NCAA Tournament predictions, upsets and sleepers

It’s tempting to ride the hot hands come March. And there’s nothing wrong with doing so — as long as you don’t completely ignore what happened prior to those hot streaks.

The same is true for teams that are stumbling into the Big Dance — don’t automatically assume that those struggles will continue.

Keep things in context. For instance, did the team that’s playing well feast on a bunch of non-NCAA Tournament teams down the stretch? And did the team running cold lose some close games to quality opponents and/or lose a key player to injury?

Such factors should be taken into account when filling out your brackets.

That said, if you identify a team that you believe is peaking at the right time — see No. 8 seed North Carolina last year — roll with ‘em.

Speaking of last year’s Tar Heels, they were an exception to an otherwise pretty consistent rule.

That rule: Lower-seeded teams rarely make the Final Four, let alone cut down the nets.

In the last 22 NCAA Tournaments going back to 2001, only 12 teams seeded lower than fifth have reached the Final Four. Only three of those reached the championship game. And only one — No. 7 seed UConn in 2014 — won it all.

In fact, that particular UConn squad is one of only three non-No. 1 seeds to cut down the nets since 2007. The others: No. 3 seed UConn in 2011 and No. 2 seed Villanova in 2016.

Also, at least two No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four in the last five NCAA Tournaments.

So it’s unlikely that this year’s Final Four in Houston won’t have any of the top seeds (Alabama, Houston, Kansas and Purdue). But it’s just as unlikely that more than two will make it. Because that’s happened just twice this century: In 2015 (three No. 1 seeds) and 2008 (all four).

» READ MORE: Bracket Jawn 2023: The Inquirer is handing out $1,000 to the winner of this college hoops challenge

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