Back Penn State to score upset over Illinois in Big Ten tourney opener

One of the most popular college basketball betting theories at this time of year: Don’t underestimate the power of momentum, both positive and negative.

Another popular theory: Think twice before backing teams in conference tournaments that swept their opponents in the regular season. Because as the adage goes, it’s difficult to defeat the same team three times in the same campaign.

Sure enough, those theories will be running headfirst into each other Thursday evening in Chicago. That’s where surging Penn State (5-1 last six) will look to upend slumping Illinois (4-5 last nine) in a Big Ten Tournament second-round matchup.

It will be the third meeting in three months between the two programs. How did the first two scraps turn out? The Nittany Lions won both by TKO.

And the reason they won both is precisely why we’re ignoring the second theory with our Penn State vs. Illinois prediction.

Odds updated as of 1 p.m. ET on March 8.

On Dec. 10, the Nittany Lions traveled to Illinois and built a 47-38 halftime lead en route to a 74-59 upset victory as a 10.5-point underdog.

That night, Penn State made exactly half of its two dozen 3-point tries (12-for-24). The Illini went 7-for-23 from distance.

Fast-forward to Valentine’s Day when Illinois headed east to State College looking for revenge. What it got was another double-digit loss, as the Nittany Lions rolled 93-81, this time as a 3.5-point home pup.

Once again, Penn State drained 12 shots from beyond the arc (in 28 attempts). And once again, the Illini made seven (in 27 tries).

So according to our handy calculator, the Nittany Lions went 24-for-53 from 3-point range (45.3%) in the two games, Illinois went 14-for-50 (28.0%), and Penn State finished a combined plus-27 on the scoreboard — despite getting outrebounded by a combined 61-52 margin.

Now, there’s a good chance you’re thinking, “Big whoop — two games is hardly a big sample size.” And you’d be right.

So let’s analyze some season-long stats, beginning with this one:

No team in the Big Ten made more 3-point shots this season both overall (334) and in league play (209) then Penn State. And it wasn’t even close, as Iowa checked in at No. 2 both overall (254) and in conference (169).

What about 3-point shooting percentage? Penn State has made 38.9% of its treys overall, which ranks 12th in the nation and second in the Big Ten (behind only Michigan State at 40.1%).

In conference-only games, Penn State (39.4%) again trails only Michigan State (41.5%).

Which Big Ten teams do the Illini trail in 3-point shooting? Every single one. Yep, Illinois is 14th in the 14-team league at 31.0% overall and a woeful 29.1% in conference games.

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That 31.0% figure? It ranks 334th out of 363 Division I schools.

Of course, this is when we must bring up another important basketball cliché — one that carries greater relevance at the college level: Live by the 3, die by the 3.

In other words, betting on the Nittany Lions comes with the inherent risk that if their long-range shots aren’t hitting, chances are your wager won’t hit, either.

But it’s a risk we’re willing to take. Because while Thursday’s game is at a neutral venue, Penn State has shown it can make 3-point shots in foreign gyms.

Back in mid-November, the Nittany Lions played three games in four days at a preseason tourney in South Carolina and shot 36.5% from deep (31-for-85). They also shot 36% against Purdue at The Palestra. And of course they had long-range success in Illinois’ building.

Will the Illini throw some different perimeter defensive schemes at Penn State on Thursday? Almost certainly. And those schemes might work to some degree.

But even if the Nittany Lions regress from the 45.3% long-distance rate they posted in the first two meetings, is Illinois going to do much better than 28.0% — particularly at a neutral court? Seems unlikely.

As for that theory about not betting against a team in a double-revenge situation, there’s definitely merit to it. But it’s most often a concern when the team that lost the two previous matchups was competitive in at least one of the contests.

In this instance, Penn State thoroughly whooped Illinois twice — and did so as a decided underdog each time.

Our money says the Nittany Lions make oddsmakers look foolish once again, take down Illinois for a third time and advance to Friday’s quarterfinal against Northwestern.

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The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.