Bet on Maryland’s sleeper odds to cut down nets of Big Ten conference tournament

Purdue led the Big Ten wire to wire in the regular season. And despite hitting a few potholes down the stretch, the Boilermakers cruised to the regular season championship with a three-game cushion.

So it’s understandable that oddsmakers have tabbed Purdue as the overwhelming favorite to also take home the Big Ten Tournament championship.

However, recent history indicates the prudent move is to fade the top-seeded Boilermakers and eyeball teams a few rungs down the Big Ten Tournament odds board.

For starters, Purdue has one conference tournament title in the event’s 22-year history (2009). Also, the last nine times the tournament was staged, the No. 1 seed has reached the championship game just three times (winning it twice).

In fact, the No. 5 seed has won two of the last four Big Ten tourneys (Michigan in 2018, Iowa in 2022). And another No. 5 seed was the 2021 runner-up (Ohio State).

Those trends — along with the aforementioned late-season potholes Purdue has tripped in — have us backing an under-the-radar sleeper in our comprehensive Big Ten Tournament betting preview.

Odds updated as of 10:30 a.m. ET on March 7.

Purdue went 26-5 in the regular season (including 15-5 in conference play). The Boilermakers also spent six weeks ranked No. 1 (more than any other school); they’ve been positioned in the top five nearly the entire season; and their best player — 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey — is going to win national Player of the Year.

However, something has been off with Purdue since improving to 21-1 with a 20-point home win over Penn State on Feb. 1.

From there, the Boilermakers split their final eight games. Three of those setbacks were on the road. The fourth was a 79-71 home loss to Indiana on Feb. 25 — three weeks after the Hoosiers dumped Purdue 79-74 in Bloomington.

That said, Purdue posted quality preseason wins over Marquette, West Virginia, Gonzaga and Duke — all in a row in November. And four of its five Big Ten defeats were by a total of 20 points.

So the Boilermakers absolutely deserve to be overwhelming Big Ten tourney favorites. Just as Indiana — which is the only team to beat Purdue twice this season — deserves to be No. 2 on the odds board.

But the Hoosiers (21-10, 14-16-1 ATS) dealt with their own late-season inconsistency issues. Yes, they upset Purdue twice, but coach Indiana is still just 6-4 SU (4-6 ATS) in its last 10. And two of those wins were by a total of three points against Michigan (including a 75-73 overtime triumph at home in Sunday’s regular-season finale).

But that’s not enough to get us to wager on either team to be the last one standing.

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No school has won more Big Ten Tournament games (34) or titles (six) than Michigan State. And this year’s Spartans did rally from a poor start to the season to finish fourth in the conference standings (giving them the final double-bye into the tournament quarterfinals).

So it’s easy to see why coach Tom Izzo’s troops are the consensus third choice to win the tournament this week.

That said, Michigan State (19-11, 15-15 ATS) only went 4-8 SU and ATS against the seven other teams that finished with winning conference records. Thus, the Spartans’ +600 to +700 Big Ten tourney odds seem quite thin.

The same can be said for instate rivals Northwestern (+1100 at FanDuel) and Illinois (+1300 at Caesars Sportsbook).

The Wildcats (21-10, 19-12 ATS) enjoyed one of college basketball’s most surprising seasons — both on the court and at the betting window. They tied Indiana for second place in the league standings, thus earning the coveted double-bye.

Northwestern’s résumé includes a 6-point home win over Purdue, a home-and-home sweep of Indiana and victories at Michigan State and Wisconsin.

However, the Wildcats ran out of steam down the stretch. They dropped three straight to Illinois, Maryland and Penn State before finishing with Sunday’s solid 65-53 upset win at Rutgers.

Similarly, Illinois limped to the finish line, going 4-5 SU with just two quality wins — both at home and both by four points over Michigan (double-overtime) and Northwestern.

The Illini and Wildcats also are on the same side of a Big Ten tourney bracket that’s loaded with pitfalls — in fact, the two would face each other Thursday if Illinois gets past Penn State on Wednesday.

That half of the bracket also includes No. 3 seed Indiana, as well as another sleeper — our pick to win the whole enchilada.

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Maryland hasn’t exactly been a Big Ten Tournament force. The Terps are just 3-7 in seven appearances since joining the conference in 2014-2015.

And while Maryland did manage to finish in the top half of the conference standings this year, the team did all of its damage at home — like, literally.

The Terps (20-11 SU and ATS) went 10-0 when hosting league opponents and 1-9 as a visitor — and the lone win was at dreadful, last-place Minnesota.

But almost every Big Ten team stunk on the road this year. Only Purdue (10-3) and Northwestern (7-4) were above water on the highway. That makes Maryland’s road woes a little easier to stomach.

So why are we bullish on the Terps? Because their No. 20 KenPom rating is better than any other Big Ten squad but Purdue, which is No. 6. (Michigan State is next at No. 28, followed by Indiana at No. 30.)

Maryland also is one of just three teams to rank in the top eight in the Big Ten in both scoring offense (8th) and scoring defense (4th). The others: Purdue (5th in offense, 3rd in defense) and Penn State (7th in offense, 8th in defense).

Finally, Maryland has had success against its four most likely opponents on its side of the tournament bracket. The Terps are 6-1 against Nebraska, Penn State, Illinois, Northwestern and Indiana. And if not for a late-game collapse in Sunday’s 65-64 loss at Penn State, that record would be 7-0.

What if Maryland were to meet Purdue in Sunday’s title game? Well, the Terps gave the Boilermakers a fight in late January, losing 58-55 as an 8.5-point underdog. Then they got revenge a month later with a 68-54 home win.

That’s the only time all season Purdue lost by double digits.

Now you know why No. 6 seed Maryland has the fourth best odds to win its first Big Ten tourney. And why we’re taking the +850 price FanDuel is offering.

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