Sweet 16 predictions: Bigger, stronger Tennessee will overpower upstart FAU

Remember the first time you saw a child tear into a piece of chocolate cake on their first birthday? That’s what the NCAA Tournament’s East Region bracket looks like — a complete mess.

A recap of last weekend in case you missed it: No. 1 seed, gone. No. 2 seed, gone. No. 5 and No. 6 seeds — two bluebloods with a combined 13 national champions — gone and gone.

Just how zany has the East been? Consider: No. 4 seed Tennessee was a 3-point underdog in its Round of 32 contest Saturday. The following day, No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic was a 15.5-point favorite in its second-round matchup.

Yet Tennessee, which hasn’t won three straight games since late January, will take the court at Madison Square Garden on Thursday as a solid Sweet 16 favorite against … Florida Atlantic, which is 33-3 on the season and on a nine-game winning streak.

Grab the points with the underdog Owls and don’t think twice, right? Eh, not so fast.

Odds updated as of 1 p.m. ET on March 22.

Sometimes in life you have to swallow hard and give credit where it’s due. This, for us, is one of those times.

Last week, we faded Tennessee in its first-round game against No. 13 seed Louisiana and it was the right call, as the Volunteers barely eked out a 58-55 victory as an 11.5-point favorite.

So we confidently went back to the anti-Tennessee well — or, more accurately, the anti-Rick Barnes well — in the second round, backing No. 5 seed Duke as a 3-point chalk. This time, we paid the price, as the Vols halted the Blue Devils’ 10-game winning streak in a 65-52 blowout win.

» READ MORE: Bet on No. 7 Michigan State to topple No. 3 Kansas State in Sweet 16 matchup

Now for the credit part: Barnes, the Tennessee head coach who has a long track record of early March Madness exits, called a masterful game. Recognizing that Duke had a freshman-heavy roster that wasn’t accustomed to getting pushed around for 40 minutes, Barnes ordered his troops to get physical with the Blue Devils. The plan worked perfectly, as the Vols rattled Duke into 14 turnovers and 27% shooting (6-for-22) from 3-point range.

With that convincing victory, Tennessee (25-10, 18-17 ATS) is in the Sweet 16 for just the third time since 2010. And Barnes is in the Sweet 16 for just the seventh time in 27 NCAA Tournament appearances.

Now, because of how the East Region bracket got blown up, all Barnes has to do to reach his fourth Elite Eight is defeat a No. 9 seed — a team from Conference USA.

» READ MORE: Why you should take Arkansas to keep it tight with UConn in Sweet 16

Well, believe it or not (and we barely believe it), we’re betting on Barnes and Tennessee to take care of business Thursday — and by a comfortable margin. Our logic? It’s tied to a significant talent discrepancy and both teams’ preferred style of play.

FAU (33-3, 22-11-1 ATS) likes to get out and run with an offense that averages 78.4 points per game while shooting 46.7% from the field and 36.7% from 3-point range. The Owls rank 32nd, 55th and tied for 49th, respectively, in those statistical categories among all Division 1 squads.

Solid rankings, for sure. But not nearly as good as these: third, third and first. That’s where the Vols rank nationally in scoring defense (57.8 ppg), field goal defense (37.2%) and 3-point defense (26.4%).

Point being, FAU is about to encounter the most tenacious and, yes, physical defense it has seen all season. And unless the Owls can handle constant pressure and shoot the lights out at the Garden, they’re in for a long night.

The reason: FAU, whose nine-man rotation features seven guards 6-foot-4 or shorter, faces a major size disadvantage in this matchup. That means second-shot opportunities are going to be difficult to come by against a Tennessee team that has four big men ranging from 6-foot-8 to 7-foot-1 who play regular minutes.

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Speaking of advantages, the Vols are a battle-tested team that played played nonconference games against Texas (win), Kansas (win), Maryland (win) and Arizona (loss). That was followed by 18 games in the SEC, the second best conference in the country this year behind the Big 12.

And that was all before hammering Duke, the ACC Tournament champion that had won 10 in a row.

The Owls, conversely, ripped through lowly Conference USA, which had only four of 11 teams finish above .500 in league play. Then last weekend, FAU needed a layup with 2 seconds remaining to get past No. 8 seed Memphis in the opening round before being handed the gift of No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the second round.

So there isn’t any doubt which is the better team in this contest. The only questions that linger are: Can Tennessee cover this number, and can Rick Barnes avoid turning into March Rick Barnes for one more game?

Regarding the former, 12 of the Vols’ last 14 victories dating to Jan. 3 have been by at least nine points. So when they win, they tend to win big.

Regarding the latter, well, we’re (gulp) betting on it.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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