Sweet 16 predictions: Back No. 8 Arkansas as an underdog vs. No. 4 UConn

Immediately following last year’s Final Four, one sportsbook installed Arkansas as the co-second choice to win the 2022-23 national championship at +1000.

Now, 35 games and two NCAA Tournament wins later — the most recent against the defending national champs — Arkansas finds itself in the Sweet 16 for the third straight year. And one victory away from an Elite Eight appearance, also for the third straight year.

Yet that same sportsbook currently has the Razorbacks as the co-11th choice to win the 2022-23 national championship at+3500.

Clearly, the college basketball betting market long ago soured on Arkansas. And the team’s March Madness success last week didn’t change that. Because the eighth-seeded Razorbacks are underdogs Thursday against No. 4 seed UConn in a West Region Sweet 16 battle.

Can Arkansas fill up its tank with some disrespect fuel, pull off a second straight upset and march on to another Elite Eight? We’re not quite willing to predict that. But we are willing to snag the points in what figures to be a very close game.

Odds updated as of 4:50 p.m. on March 21.

The talent has always been there for Arkansas — that’s why BetMGM opened its 2022-23 college basketball futures market with the Razorbacks tied with Kentucky and right behind favored Duke (+800) in odds to win this year’s national title.

What hasn’t been there, however, is consistency. For proof, just check the game logs.

Arkansas (22-13, 19-17 ATS) started the season 11-1, with the only hiccup being a 90-87 loss to fellow Sweet 16 entrant Creighton at the Maui Invitational on Thanksgiving Eve.

Then the SEC campaign tipped off, and the Hogs dropped five of their first six games (0-6 ATS). They rallied to win five of their next six (both SU and ATS), only to close the regular season 2-5 (3-4 ATS).

Arkansas did hold off Auburn in its SEC Tournament opener 76-73 as a 2.5-point underdog. But 24 hours later, the Razorbacks blew a 13-point halftime lead to Texas A&M and fell 67-61 as a 1-point underdog.

Given that roller-coaster ride, Arkansas has been difficult to back from a wagering standpoint. And it’s certainly possible that the underachieving version of this team will show up in Las Vegas on Thursday. If so, UConn (27-8, 23-12 ATS) will run the Razorbacks right out of T-Mobile Arena.

But we have faith that coach Eric Musselman has his troops pointed in the right direction. He certainly did last week, when Arkansas followed a comfortable 10-point first-round victory over Illinois with an impressive comeback win against No. 1 seed Kansas. The Razorbacks went into the locker room at halftime down 35-27. But the offense caught fire in the second half en route to a 72-71 upset as a 4-point underdog.

» READ MORE: National title, Final Four odds improve drastically for Villanova heading into Sweet 16

Winning close games in March is nothing new for Arkansas. In the past three seasons under Musselman, the Razorbacks are 8-1 in SEC and NCAA tournament games decided by 6 points or less. (The only defeat was to Texas A&M earlier this month.)

As noted above, we expect this to be another tight contest.

For starters, even though UConn posted a pair of double-digit wins over No. 13 seed Iona (87-63) and No. 5 Saint Mary’s (70-55) in its first two March Madness games, the Huskies didn’t have an easy go of it in either contest. In fact, they trailed at halftime against Iona and needed a buzzer-beating 3-pointer to take a 31-30 halftime lead against Saint Mary’s.

Adama Sanogo, a 6-foot-9 power forward/center, bailed UConn out in both games. He tallied a total of 52 points on 24-for-37 shooting from the field and also grabbed 21 rebounds. Sanogo definitely will be a handful for the guard-oriented Razorbacks. But with four big men who play regular minutes and stand either 6-foot-9 or 6-foot-10, Arkansas has options to throw at Sanogo.

And while the Huskies are essentially a two-man team with Sanogo and leading scorer Jordan Hawkins, Arkansas is deep. All five Razorback starters averaged double-digit points in the regular season. And three of those starters and two reserves combined for 24.7 rebounds per game.

Another reason to take the points with Arkansas: Hawkins, who is UConn’s best player, has been struggling lately. Take out a 24-point performance in a win at Villanova on March 4 and Hawkins has averaged 10.4 points in his last five contests while shooting 34% (17-for-50) from the field.

Those are well off his season averages of 16.4 points per game and 40.7% shooting.

If Hawkins doesn’t bring his A-game Thursday night, the Huskies — our pick to win the West Region — are going to be in serious trouble. But even if Hawkins and Sanogo show up and deliver, we still think Arkansas has enough talent and grit to at least get inside the number.

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