Sweet 16 predictions: Back Gonzaga as an underdog against banged-up UCLA

Two 30-win conference champions from the West Coast that play contrasting styles. Two teams led by seniors who are prolific scorers. And two teams with dramatic NCAA Tournament history against each other.

No wonder the West Region battle between No. 3 Gonzaga and No. 2 UCLA was scheduled as the best-for-last nightcap of Thursday’s Sweet 16 action.

And no wonder this highly anticipated clash in Las Vegas is a virtual tossup in the eyes of oddsmakers.

Our prediction? Expect another epic Gonzaga-UCLA NCAA Tournament classic. And expect the team that doesn’t have any health concerns to survive — barely.

Odds updated as of 2:45 p.m. ET on March 22.

It’s easy to make a case for both sides in any even matchup, and this one certainly qualifies.

UCLA is 31-5 overall, 14-1 in its last 15 and handled its business last week with NCAA Tournament wins over No. 15 seed UNC Asheville (86-53) and No. 7 Northwestern (68-63).

Gonzaga is 30-5 overall, 11-0 in its last 11 and handled its business last week with tournament wins over No. 14 Grand Canyon (82-70) and No. 6 TCU (84-81).

UCLA’s best player is guard Jaime Jaquez Jr., a fourth-year senior who averages a team-high 17.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. Jaquez shot 48.7% from the field in the regular season.

Gonzaga’s best player is forward Drew Timme, a fourth-year senior who averages a team-high 21.1 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Timme shot 61.8% from the field in the regular season.

The Bruins are in the Sweet 16 for the third straight year and sixth time in the last 10 NCAA Tournaments. The Zags are making their eighth straight Sweet 16 appearance.

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And then there’s that shared March Madness drama. Seventeen years ago Thursday, UCLA went on a game-ending 11-0 run to stun Gonzaga 73-71 in the Sweet 16. Two years ago, the Bulldogs got revenge when Jalen Suggs drilled a buzzer-beating, near-half-court shot for a 93-90 overtime win in the Final Four.

So it won’t be shocking if similar theatrics unfold Thursday night at T-Mobile Arena on the Las Vegas Strip. But however this one goes down, our money is on Gonzaga to move on to the Elite Eight for the fifth time in the last eight years.

The reason? Health — or a lack of it for UCLA.

In the final game of the regular season against Arizona, the Bruins lost starting guard Jaylen Clark to a season-ending Achilles injury.

Not only was Clark the team’s second-leading scorer (13 ppg) and rebounder (6.0), but he won Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year. The junior, who averaged a team-best 2.6 steals per contest, was a huge reason why UCLA held 23 of 31 regular-season opponents to 64 points or less.

The Bruins got by without Clark in the first two games of the Pac-12 Tournament, blowing out Colorado and Oregon. They also took care of their first two inferior March Madness foes.

But Clark’s absence was clearly felt in a last-second 61-59 loss to Arizona in the Pac-12 Tournament title game. And we expect that to be the case again Thursday against Gonzaga, which led the nation in scoring for a second straight year.

In fact, the Zags’ 85.4 points per game average is two points clear of the next best team (Toledo at 83.3).

Will Gonzaga hit that average in this Sweet 16 contest? Unlikely, as only three opponents have scored more than 73 points against UCLA all season.

Those opponents: USC put up 77 in a 13-point home win in January, while Illinois (79-70) and Baylor (80-75) went off in consecutive wins over the Bruins at an early-season tournament in, ironically, Las Vegas.

But Clark’s injury isn’t UCLA’s only health concern. Starting guard David Singleton injured his leg late in Saturday’s win over Northwestern. Singleton — who combined for 16 points and 24 rebounds against UNC Asheville and Northwestern — is listed as questionable. But the injury looked bad.

Slowing down Timme and the high-flying Zags was going to be a difficult chore without Clark. Doing so without Clark and Singleton — or, at best, with a hobbled Singleton? That’s a tough ask.

Toss in a coaching advantage of Gonzaga’s Mark Few vs. UCLA’s Mick Cronin, and we’ll side with the underdog in what should be a very competitive game.

» READ MORE: 2023 March Madness betting trends: Will strong Under trends continue in Sweet 16?

Point spread: Gonzaga (+1.5) vs. UCLA (-1.5)

Moneyline: Gonzaga (+105) vs. UCLA (-125)

Total: 145.5

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