How to Hedge a Bet: Hedging Explained

Hedge betting is a sports wagering term you are bound to hear early and often during your sports betting journey. Hedge betting is a type of betting strategy in which you make an additional wager(s) to reduce your risk on another and guarantee profit.

But how does that work since you essentially guarantee losing one wager? Let’s explain.

Bet hedging is a sports betting strategy in which you place a wager that conflicts with another to ensure a profit or minimize a loss. It can be the exact opposite of the outcome of your initial bet, but not necessarily. The point is to reduce your overall risk.

When done right, it can be a profitable strategy at the best sports betting sites.

The how part of hedge betting is simple—you place a wager contrary to one you already placed. For example, let’s say you took the Eagles to beat the Bucs in the 2023 NFC Wild Card game at -3.5 (-110). To hedge that bet, you could put money on the Bucs to win +3 (-105).

As for when, since the idea is to lock in a profit or minimize a loss, you’ll want to hedge your bet once you are no longer confident in the outcome.

Let’s say you bet $100 on the Eagles to win the final game of the season (Super Bowl 57) when they were 10-1 after Week 12 (futures bet-- +400). But then they lost five of their last six and no longer looked competitive. So, heading into the conference championship game, you take the Chiefs to win Super Bowl 57 at +380 and the 49ers at +145.

Had the 49ers gone on to win, you would have mitigated your losses. But since the Chiefs won, you still turned a small profit.

Games with only two possible outcomes (a winner and a loser) will have low-margin odds at sportsbooks. Assuming your sportsbook does not list odds for a tie, a football game is a great example where the spread for both teams often has -110 odds.

You do not want there to be multiple outcomes. To effectively hedge your bet, you’ll need to place a wager on every possible outcome, making low-margin odds ideal for hedge betting.

If you were to place two individual, unrelated bets, you would stand to win more. This is because you could win both wagers. However, you could also lose both bets.

Let’s say your primary interest in hedge betting is to ensure you win. Rather than hedge your bet, you could create your own betting line. For example, Team A is a heavy favorite to win a game at -10. But you want to ensure you win, so you take shorter odds and (less winnings) at -14.

Since they were a heavy favorite, you expect them to win and most of the time they do. But it is not unheard of for a team that is a heavy favorite to get crushed by the underdog.

Bettors can hedge a bet from any market they wish as long as there is an opposing outcome for you to bet on. Every sporting event has a winner or loser. For those with a third outcome, there is double-chance betting.

The following is a small sample of the sporting markets where you can hedge a bet:

Here’s the process for hedging a bet:

The odds for a boxing match open as such: Boxer A (-110) vs. Boxer B (+150). You have a thing for underdogs, and put $100 on Boxer B to win. But then Boxer A struggles during training while Boxer B has an incredible camp. The day before the fight, the line is Boxer A +140 and Boxer B -110.

Using the formula “hedge bet stake=Original bet stake/(hedge bet decimal odds-1),” you calculate that you need to put $71.43 on Boxer A’s new odds to break even. If Boxer B wins, you receive a $250 payout (your stake plus $150 in winnings). But since you also put $71.43 down on Boxer A, your net profit is $78.57.

If Boxer A wins, you receive a payout of $171.43 (your stake plus $100 in winnings). Since you put $100 on Boxer B, you broke even.

Making a wager when a hedge opportunity is not actually present in one example of a common mistake.

Here’s some others:

Poor planning: If you intend on bet-hedging, you need to have a plan to make sure you place your hedge bet on the right market when the odds are the most advantageous.

Double-check your betting slip before placing a wager. Humans are fallible and make mistakes all the time. But making one when trying to hedge a bet can cause you to lose even more money.

Over-hedging: Since each hedge bet requires you to put up more money, if you make too many bets to minimize as much risk as possible, you can significantly impact your potential winnings.

Making a decision contrary to the information: If a majority of the data is informing you to bet a certain way to hedge your bet, you should probably do it. Use the resources at your disposal.

The following are different sports betting methods related to hedge betting:

In this scenario, you will likely have placed an individual pregame wager. Once the game begins, you can make a live/in-play wager to hedge against your pregame wager if things are not going your way.

Let’s say you put $100 on Team A to win via the moneyline at +150. In this scenario, your wager will win $250, your stake plus $150 in winnings. At the half, Team A holds the lead, and the moneyline for Team B has moved to +200.

Just in case Team B mounts a comeback in the second half, you put $75 on Team B at +200 (to win $225, your stake plus $150 in winnings).

You have risked $175 and stand to win $250 or $225. Either way, you win money.

Let’s examine an example of hedging a parlay bet. Let’s say you have $100 on a five-leg parlay bet and have won your first four legs. To ensure you win something, you bet $200 on the opposing outcome of your final leg.

You can walk away with a net profit no matter how the final leg finishes.

Hedging a bet allows sports bettors to limit their losses or ensure you make a profit.

Let’s say you bet $100 on the 49ers to win Super Bowl 58 at +225 heading into the 2023 playoffs. But then, after the Wild Card game, you don’t feel as confident in them as you do the Chiefs. So, you bet $100 on the Chiefs to win at +700.

When the Chiefs won, you received an $800 payout (your stake plus $700 in winnings). But since you had bet $100 on the 49ers, your net profit is $600. Had the 49ers won, you would have received a $325 payout (your stake plus $225 in winnings). Because your original wager was $100 on the Chiefs, your net profit is $125.

Here is another example. You bet $100 on Team A -3 (-110). But after the first quarter, Team A was down by 10, and the line on Team A was +7 (-110). You are convinced they’ll mount a comeback and make the game competitive, so you put $100 on Team A at +7 (-110).

The final score is Team A 20 and Team B 23. You lost your original wager of $100, but since you won your second wager ($190.91 payout, your stake, plus $90.91 in winnings), your net loss is just $9.09.

Double chances is a hedging strategy common when a game has three possible outcomes: either team wins or a draw. You’ll place a wager on two of the potential outcomes. The odds will be shorter, but you have a greater chance of winning the wager.

Let’s say you want to bet on Man City vs. Aston Villa. The double-chance options are Man City or draw, Aston Villa or draw, and Man City or Aston Villa. If you bet on ‘Man City or Aston Villa’ as long as the game doesn’t end in a draw, you win.

A betting exchange is a marketplace that allows bettors to place bets with each other rather than with a sportsbook where the fees (vig) are higher. Example: Bettor A wanted to bet $100 on the 49ers at +3.5 in Super Bowl 58. Bettor B agrees to that bet, meaning they would have taken the Chiefs at -3.5.

Bettor A wins the wager since the final score was 25-22 Chiefs.

During the preseason, you bet $100 on Purdue to win the 2023-24 NCAAM Championship at +1400 (a futures bet). But during the NCAA Tournament, you put $100 down on Connecticut to win at +350. If one of those two teams wins the final game of the tournament, you’ll come out ahead.

Arbitrage betting involves betting on all outcomes of an event/game, but in such a way that you guarantee you’ll make a profit no matter how it plays out.

Sportsbooks typically do not like bettors using this strategy since it guarantees the house will lose. Someone can best accomplish this strategy with a bet at one sportsbook and a second, contrary bet at another.

To find such an opportunity, place your initial bet as close as possible to when the line opens for a game. Then, monitor the line at several sportsbooks leading up to the contest to see if there is enough line movement for you to walk away with a net profit, no matter what.

For example, let’s say the moneyline opens for Team A at +110 and for Team B at -110. Then, as the week progresses, you find a sportsbook that has Team B listed at +110. If you bet $100 on each team at +110, you will have risked $200, but the payout on your winning wager will be $210.

You win $10, no matter who wins.

Want to learn more about how hedging a bet? Read these common questions and answers we’ve compiled below.

Bettors benefit from hedging bets by guaranteeing they will win something or minimize their losses.

You bet $100 on Rory McIlroy to win the 2023 Masters ahead of Round 1. Before Round 4, you put $100 on Jon Rahm to win at +180.

Since Rahm went on to win, you received a payout of $280 (your stake plus $180 in winnings) but since you also bet $100 on McIlroy, your net winnings were $80.

Hedging bets is worth it if you prefer to take a safer approach to betting. You will not win as much, but you’ll still win something. But if you are okay with the risk involved in betting and would rather win more, then it is not worth it.

If you want to minimize your risk as much as possible when you bet, then hedging your bets is the best sports betting strategy.

The best time to hedge a bet is either when the value of your initial wager has increased and you want to make sure you win something. Also, when it appears that you will lose your initial wager and want to minimize your losses.

Bettors can use this equation to ensure they break even: hedge bet stake = Original bet stake/(hedge bet decimal odds-1).

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.