MLB props predictions: Bet on Rangers’ deGrom to miss a lot of bats Monday

Jacob deGrom may have switched uniforms and leagues. But the New York Mets’ former ace has already shown that he still has a lot of life left in his golden right arm.

The 2018 and 2019 National League Cy Young winner has racked up 27 strikeouts in his first three starts with the Texas Rangers. Number of innings required to record those 27 whiffs: Just 16 2/3.

Exactly one-third of deGrom’s strikeouts came six days ago at home against the Kansas City Royals. So why not bet on deGrom to at least match that nine-strikeout performance when he faces the Royals again on Monday, this time on the road?

We can’t think of a good reason not to, which is why deGrom’s strikeout total headlines our trio of MLB prop bet recommendations for Monday.

Odds updated as of 1:30 p.m. ET on April 17.

You’re always going to pay a tax when betting positive-outcome Jacob deGrom props — either in the form of an inflated number or inflated odds (and sometimes both).

Monday is no different. But we’re paying the levy on deGrom’s strikeout total of 8.5, for two reasons: He beat this number in each of his last two starts, and he’s facing the free-swinging and light-hitting Kansas City Royals for the second time in a week.

After recording seven strikeouts (in just 3 2/3 innings) against the Phillies

on Opening Day, deGrom fanned 11 Orioles in six innings on April 5. He then struck out nine Royals over a season-best seven innings Tuesday at home.

Monday’s start will be deGrom’s first on the road, but that isn’t a concern. Yes, the two-time Cy Young winner is averaging 1.6 more strikeouts per nine innings at home in his career than as a visitor. But his K/9 rate on the road (10.1) is still damn good.

Know what isn’t good? The Royals’ offense, which is striking out 9.5 times per game on average. And their 152 total whiffs are fifth most in MLB.

K.C. just got swept by the Braves at home over the weekend, and its hitters posted the following strikeout totals: 9, 10 and 9. Number times those hitters faced a pitcher with deGrom’s stuff in those three defeats: zero.

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Not a lot of margin for error with this pitching prop. But as long as Milwaukee’s ace pitches like he did in his last outing, we shouldn’t even break a sweat.

After two rough starts to begin the 2023 season — 10 runs allowed in 9 1/3 innings — Burnes was spectacular on Tuesday in Arizona. The 2021 National League Cy Young winner allowed just three all singles in eight shutout innings, striking out eight and walking one in a 7-1 victory.

That Burnes pitched so well in one of MLB’s best hitters’ parks is all the more impressive.

On Monday, Burnes gets to work in one of baseball’s premier pitchers’ parks. And he gets to face a Mariners’ offense that has done less damage with the bat (.232 team average, .690 OPS, 9.2 strikeouts per game) than the Diamondbacks (.254 average, .700 OPS, 7.2 strikeouts per game).

Seattle has been particularly anemic against right-handed pitchers at home, posting a .210 batting average and a .303 on-base percentage in 10 contests.

Burnes will become the third high-end right-handed ace to face the Mariners this season, all in Seattle. The first two — the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani and the Guardians’ Shane Bieber — allowed a total of one run in 12 innings.

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We’re not ready to buy up all the Kyle Freeland stock that’s out there. But a few shares? Sure, why not.

In his first three starts, the Colorado Rockies’ ace has given up just two runs — both solo homers in his last outing against the Cardinals. Freeland has allowed just 18 baserunners (13 hits, five walks) in 18 2/3 innings, which is good for a 0.96 WHIP (matching his 0.96 ERA).

Freeland has gone at least six innings in every start, including on April 6 when he beat the Nationals 1-0 at home — only the 12th 1-0 game in Coors Field history.

Freeland was victimized by his own bullpen in his last start against St. Louis, as he departed with a 6-2 lead only to see the Cardinals rally for seven unanswered runs in the final three innings.

Could the Rockies’ bullpen implode Monday against the Pirates? It’s possible, but not likely. Pittsburgh’s offense ranks 23rd in runs (66 total; 4.1 per game) and its lineup is missing electrifying young shortstop ONeil Cruz, who is out four months with a broken left ankle.

Pittsburgh has topped four runs in just two of its last seven games (6-3 win at St. Louis, 7-4 win at Houston). Otherwise, the Pirates have produced run totals of 1, 2, 0, 0 and 4 runs.

Also, the Bucs have faced Freeland four times since August 2018 — twice in Pittsburgh, twice in Denver — and they lost all four. Final scores: 2-0, 4-3, 2-0- and 2-1.

Freeland gave up all four runs the Pirates scored in those four contests while pitching 20 1/3 innings — a 1.77 ERA.

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