2023 MLB betting preview: Player futures predictions for hits, RBI and stolen bases

If you were awake for any part of the 2022 MLB season, you know which slugger won the home crown (and likely know how many bombs he hit).

And if you’re a Philadelphia Phillies fan, you know which slugger was the runner-up.

But only diehard seamheads remember which player walked away with the 2022 stolen base crown.

His name: Jon Berti.

We’ll save you the Google search: He’s an infielder with the Florida Marlins, and he had 41 steals last year — more than in his three previous big-league seasons combined.

Oddsmakers don’t expect Berti to defend his stolen base crown in 2023. And neither do we.

Here are our MLB player futures predictions for players to lead the league in stolen bases, as well as hits and RBI. (What about home runs? We covered that one already.)

Odds updated as of 3:15 p.m. ET on March 29.

The Phillies signed Trea Turner in the offseason for a whole bunch of reasons. One of those: He consistently puts the bat on the ball. And when that ball is collected by the defense, Turner often is standing safely on base somewhere (if not back in the dugout after a home run).

Turner led all of MLB in hits in both the COVID-shortened 2020 season (78) and in 2021 (195). He nearly three-peated last year with the Dodgers, finishing with 194 hits (five behind his teammate and league-leader Freeman).

So it’s not a shock to see Turner as the favorite to be the hits leader again in 2023. He’s +350 at Caesars Sportsbook and +600 at BetMGM.

Freeman and Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette — who led the American League in hits each of the last two years — are the +800 co-second choices at Caesars.

BetMGM also has Bichette alone in second at +800, followed by Chicago White Sox shortstop Tim Anderson (+1200). Freeman and Boston third baseman Rafael Devers are next (both +1300).

All are worthy candidates — as several other players, including 21-year-old Seattle Mariners phenom Julio Rodriguez. But we’re taking the +1800 odds Caesars is offering on Devers, who finished second in 2019 with 201 hits.

Devers fell to 165 and 164 hits each of the last two years, but he was limited to 141 games in 2022. Had Devers played 156 games — as he did in 2019 and 2021 — last year’s 164 hits would’ve extrapolated to 181.

Playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and with more protection around him in the lineup, Devers is a good bet — at a solid price — to win his first hits crown this season.

» READ MORE: 2023 MLB betting preview: National League win total predictions

Last year’s co-RBI kings — the Mets’ Pete Alonso and the Yankees’ Aaron Judge — are New York rivals whose physiques conjure images of Paul Bunyon.

And both are sitting atop the RBI odds board heading into the 2023 campaign. The duo are tied at +600 at Caesars, while Judge (+700) has a slight edge over Alonso (+800) at BetMGM.

But we’re rolling with the co-third choice at BetMGM, that being Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

What does one need to lead the league in RBI? Three things: durability, opportunities and the ability to take advantage of said opportunities.

Well, Guerrero has the first one covered, as he’s played in 381 of a possible 384 regular season games the last three years.

As for the latter two, Guerrero should get plenty of RBI opportunities batting near the top of a stacked Blue Jays lineup. And there’s no reason to think he won’t deliver, having tallied 111 and 97 RBI each of the last two seasons.

In fact, Guerrero was personally responsible for more than 38% of those 208 RBI, as he belted a combined 80 home runs.

As he begins to enter his prime, Guerrero seems poised for his best season yet with the bat — a season that will end with him winning something his Hall of Fame father never did: an RBI title.

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We’re not sure what’s more surprising: Berti, a virtual unknown, winning last year’s stolen base title, or the fact he did it with as many stolen bases as Ricky Henderson used to have before Memorial Day.

How unlikely is it that Berti is the reigning stolen base champ? He entered last season with just 35 stolen bases in 201 career MLB games. Yet he beat that total by six in just 102 games.

Can you say, “fluke”? Well, MLB futures bettors and oddsmakers sure can. Because Berti is tied for sixth at Caesars (+1400) and tied for eighth at FanDuel (+1500) in odds to win the stolen base title in 2023.

Our pick can be found further down the odds board — at least at Caesars, which is offering tremendous +2000 value on the speedy Turner. By comparison, the Phillies’ new shortstop checks in at +1100 at FanDuel.

Turner has never led the league in stolen bases, but he came very close in 2018. His 43 thefts that season were two fewer than Kansas City Royals second baseman — and three-time stolen base champ — Whit Merrifield. He also led the National League with 32 steals in 2021.

Turner has blinding speed, and when he uses it on the basepaths, catchers rarely stop him — he’s been caught stealing just 42 times in 272 attempts.

Among baseball’s many changes this season, two — larger bases and limiting pick-off attempts by pitchers — were specifically designed to encourage more action on the basebaths.

Bet on Turner — who has the prettiest slide in MLB history — to be the jackrabbit who takes the most advantage of the new rules.

» READ MORE: Will Aaron Judge repeat as MLB home run leader? He’s not our pick.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.