2023 MLB betting preview: National League win total predictions

Betting on the Los Angeles Dodgers to fall short of preseason expectations has been a bankroll buster for the last decade.

Since 2013, Los Angeles has won more than 90 games in eight of nine full seasons and cleared 100 victories four times in the last six campaigns. And that doesn’t include the Dodgers’ COVID-shortened 2020 World Series-winning club that went 43-17 — the equivalent of 116 victories over a 162-game schedule.

During this stretch, L.A. has won nine of 10 National League West titles. And it would be 10-for-10 had the 2021 team that went 106-56 not finished one game behind the 107-win Giants.

Indeed, it’s been a remarkable run for one of MLB’s most storied franchises. But as the cliché goes, all good things must come to an end. And we’re of the opinion that the 2023 Dodgers are headed for a bit of a freefall after their record-setting 111-51 season a year ago.

Read on for an explanation, as well as for our win total predictions on the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates.

Odds updated as of 1:15 p.m. ET on March 28.

It might seem ludicrous to suggest that a team whose roster includes the names Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias would finish with 15 fewer wins in 2023 than 2022.

Yet that’s precisely what we’re suggesting. Because a bunch of the key pieces from last year’s franchise-record 111-win team are gone — and the Dodgers didn’t do a whole lot to replace them.

The biggest loss, without question, is five-tool shortstop Trea Turner, who bolted to the Phillies in free agency.

The plan was to fill Turner’s void by moving talented young second baseman Gavin Lux back to his natural shortstop position. But that plan went up in smoke when Lux blew out an ACL in spring training earlier this month.

Turner isn’t the only one who departed, of course. Veteran third baseman Justin Turner and Gold Glove center fielder Cody Bellinger — both of whom had down offensive seasons last year but still combined for 32 home runs and 149 RBI — also were allowed to walk.

So, too, was left-handed starter Tyler Anderson, a veteran who had a breakout season in 2022 (15-5, 2.57 ERA).

Then there’s ace right-hander Walker Buehler, who made only 12 starts last season before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Buehler will miss all of 2023.

Rather than go the usual route to plug their few holes — that route being spend, spend, spend — the Dodgers took the fiscally conservative path this offseason. The biggest additions were past-their-prime veterans J.D. Martinez, Jason Heyward and Noah Syndergaard.

L.A. does get flame-throwing, 25-year-old right-hander Dustin May back following his Tommy John surgery. And the Dodgers are high on rookie Miguel Rojas, who was moved from second base to shortstop after the Lux injury.

But Kershaw (now 35) has a ton of miles on his left arm and has been a frequent visitor to the injured list in recent seasons. Additionally, there are serious questions about the bullpen, and the depth isn’t what has been in recent years.

Will L.A. still be very good, likely win more than 90 games again and be in the hunt for another NL West title? Yes, yes and yes. But with the stacked San Diego Padres coming on strong, the 2023 Dodgers have the look of a club with a win ceiling in the low 90s.

» READ MORE: MLB preview: Which teams offer the most enticing odds to win their respective divisions?

As expected, the New York Mets’ win total projection took a tumble after stud closer Edwin Díaz suffered a season-ending knee injury while celebrating a victory for his native Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic.

But the market appears to have overreacted to Díaz’s unfortunate injury, as New York’s win total plummeted from 95.5 to 92.5.

Don’t misunderstand: Losing a guy who saved 32 games each of the last two seasons and was nearly unhittable in 2022 (1.31 ERA) is a huge deal. But the Mets have a capable replacement in veteran David Robertson, who has compiled 157 saves and a 2.89 ERA in his 14-year career.

And if for some reason Robertson doesn’t work out, New York can turn to veteran Adam Ottavino. Or it can go out and acquire a high-end closer.

Lord knows, owner Steve Cohen will sign off on it. Because as the deep-pockets Cohen proved in the offseason, he’s in it to win it — right now.

The Mets signed reigning American League Cy Young winner Justin Verlander to pair with former Detroit Tigers teammate/fellow multi-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer. They also threw $75 million at Japanese star pitcher Kodai Senga, a 30-year-old right-hander who is projected to pitch behind Scherzer and Verlander.

Verlander and Senga are more than enough to make up for the loss of oft-injured former ace Jacob deGrom.

Then there’s the loaded offense that features do-everything shortstop Francisco Lindor, power-hitting first baseman Pete Alonso and second baseman/2022 MLB batting champion Jeff McNeil (among others).

So while New York certainly will miss Díaz, the club has more than enough talent — not to mention resources — to survive it.

No, the Mets probably won’t match last year’s 101-victory campaign, but they’ll at least reach the mid-90s.

» READ MORE: Why the Phillies will hit the Over and top 87 wins for the first time since 2011

Since ending a 20-year playoff drought with three straight wild-card appearances from 2013-2015, the Pirates have once again fallen on hard times.

They have posted just one winning season since 2015, and the last four years have been particularly dreadful: 69-93 in 2019, 19-41 in the 2020 shortened season (equivalent of 51.5 wins), 61-101 in 2021 and 62-100 in 2022.

However, there’s reason for at least some optimism in Pittsburgh this summer. Certainly oddsmakers believe so — the Pirates’ consensus win total of 67.5 is the team’s highest since 2019.

Pittsburgh has a budding superstar in 6-foot-7 shortstop Oniel Cruz, who had 17 homers, 54 RBI, 45 runs and 10 stolen bases in 87 games last season.

Two other young infielders — third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes and second baseman Rodolfo Castro — showed last year that they’re also big-league ready.

The Pirates also went out in the offseason and finally spent a few revenue-sharing dollars on some experience to pair with their young core. In addition to bringing back former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh signed veteran catcher Austin Hedges, first baseman Carlos Santana and designated hitter Ji-Man Choi.

So the Bucs’ offense should improve drastically this season. The question is, will the mostly inexperienced pitching staff keep enough runs off the board for this team to challenge for 70 wins?

Even though the only hurlers with big-league track records are 43-year-old lefty Rich Hill and 31-year-old righty Vince Velasquez, we’re betting the answer is “yes”.

We’re also betting on Pittsburgh being good enough to feast on such National League bottom feeders as Colorado, Washington, Miami and NL Central rival Cincinnati, as well as below-average interleague opponents Oakland, Detroit and Kansas City.

» READ MORE: 2023 MLB betting preview: American League win total predictions

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