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NBA Finals Game 2 Preview: Heat vs. Nuggets Predictions, Player Props

Here are the best player prop bets for Game 2 of the NBA Finals between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat.

Michael Porter Jr. of the Denver Nuggets drives to the basket against Bam Adebayo of the Miami Heat during the second quarter in Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals at Ball Arena on June 01, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)Read moreMatthew Stockman / Getty Images

Published June 3, 2023, 6:00 a.m. ET

We’ve got a pair of player prop predictions for Game 2 of the NBA Finals, including plays on Denver’s best perimeter jump shooter and Miami’s top big man.

Will Michael Porter Jr. of the Nuggets be more efficient from deep? Will the Heat’s Bam Adebayo deliver again?

Odds via Caesars, current as of Friday afternoon and subject to change.

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Heat vs. Nuggets prop: Michael Porter Jr. over 2.5 3-point field goals (-145)

I dove into Porter’s three-point shooting statistics in our Game 1 Player Prop preview, so I won’t rehash all the details (you can read about those at the link above).

However, here are the main points:

Miami will eventually force Nikola Jokic to dish out to the perimeter.
Porter has been Denver’s most consistent three-point jump shooter.
Porter is averaging seven three-point attempts per game and shooting over 40%.

The game script I projected largely played out in Game 1, with the Heat adjusting their defense to Jokic’s presence and Jokic passing out of those adjustments, mostly to perimeter shooters like Porter.

As a result, Porter earned 11 3-point attempts.

Unfortunately for us, Porter made just two, going 1-for-4 from the left corner and 1-for-7 from above the break. It was a surprising result for a shooter as adept as him.

However, ShotQuality projects he should’ve made at least two more based on the quality of attempts. And per NBA.com, Porter shot 1-for-7 on open or wide-open threes.

Positive regression is coming.

The three-point volume is there for Porter, and I fully expect more to fall. So, I’ll likely be backing Porter in the three-point shooting market for the foreseeable future.

Heat vs. Nuggets prop: Bam Adebayo over 31.5 points + rebounds + assists (-119)

Erik Spoelstra has no choice but to keep playing Adebayo. The Heat don’t have a second competent big man to defend Jokic. It’s not like they can put Cody Zeller on the two-time MVP.

So, Adebayo logged 40 minutes in Game 1 of the Finals, the most he’s played this playoff run, save for Games 6 and 7 against Boston.

As a result, Adebayo attempted an absurd 25 field goal attempts. He also snagged 13 rebounds and five assists.

Adebayo played surprisingly well. He caught Jokic swiping for early steals and burned him, plus he hit most of his mid-range attempts.

He piled up 26 points in total.

Anyway, back to the point: Adebayo took 25 shots! The volume and minutes are there, so he should continue stuffing the stat sheet.

The best way to capitalize on this is by betting on the Miami big man in the PRA market. Don’t stop until the Heat prove they have another strategy.

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