Saints vs. Bucs predictions: Four prop bets for Monday Night Football

Tom Brady has gotten his touchdown groove back. After throwing multiple scoring strikes just once in his first nine games, he’s tossed two in each of the last two contests.

At the same time, the seven-time Super Bowl champ continues to value the football as much as guys his age value a midafternoon nap — he’s tossed just two interceptions all season.

Will Brady continue his multiple TD pass streak against the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football? And will he once again play mistake-free football?

We say “yes” to one of those questions and “no” to the other in our four pack of Saints vs. Bucs props predictions, the first two of which focus on Brady.

Note: Odds updated as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 5.

If you checked out our Saints vs. Bucs betting preview, this prediction surely isn’t surprising. We believe this battle between NFC South rivals will be a low-scoring affair.

Does that mean Brady can’t throw at least two TD passes? Of course not. We just don’t think the 45-year-old will have an easy time of it against the Saints’ secondary.

The last two times he’s faced New Orleans — Week 2 this season and Week 15 last season — Brady completed just 44 of 82 passes (54.6%) for 404 yards and one touchdown. And in two home games against the Saints since joining Tampa Bay, Brady has led his offense to a grand total of three points.

The Saints’ defense has surrendered only 14 passing touchdowns in 12 games, which is tied for the fourth fewest in the NFL. And only three opposing quarterbacks have had multiple TD strikes: Seattle’s Geno Smith (Week 5), Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow (Week 6) and the Rams’ Matthew Stafford (Week 11).

The one commonality? Each of those QBs had their big passing days in the Superdome. That’s right: New Orleans hasn’t given up two-plus TD passes in any of its six road/neutral site games.

Look for Brady to make one end zone connection for the 11th time in 12 games this season — but not two. Play this prop Under at Caesars Sportsbook.

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Brady threw either 12 or 14 interceptions in each of his first six NFL seasons from 2001-06. From there, TB12 was pretty judicious with the football, throwing double-digit picks just three times in his next 10 full seasons.

However, in the ensuing four years, Brady tossed more than 10 interceptions on three occasions. That includes his first two years in Tampa Bay, as he picked off a dozen times in each campaign (offset, of course, by a total of 83 touchdown passes).

This year? Brady has thrown the football to the other team just twice in 470 pass attempts. One of those picks occurred in Week 1 at Dallas. The other was two weeks ago against the Seahawks in Germany.

It must be noted that Brady had serious ball-control issues against the Saints in his first two years with Tampa Bay. In fact, one-third of the INTs he threw the last two seasons — eight of 24 — came against New Orleans.

However, this year’s Saints secondary isn’t nearly as opportunistic as recent versions — and that’s putting it kindly. Because New Orleans has corralled as many interceptions in 12 games (two) as Brady has tossed in 11 contests.

The Saints got one from the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins in London in Week 4 and another from the Raiders’ Derek Carr at home in Week 8. That’s it. No other NFL defense has fewer than four picks.

So we’ve got an all-time great quarterback who has thrown the fewest INTs this season facing a defense that ranks dead last in the league in picks. Yeah, sign us up for the Under at BetMGM — even if we have to lay some juice.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

Before diving into the analysis on this particular Saints vs. Bucs prop, a quick lesson on line shopping: At the time of publication, FanDuel had Kamara’s combined rushing/receiving total at 77.5, while BetMGM and Caesars were at 83.5.

So whether you like the Over or Under on this Kamara prop — or any prop — be sure to shop for the optimum price.

As for why we’re leaning to the Under, it’s simple: Kamara is the Saints’ most dangerous offensive weapon, and the Bucs’ defense — which ranks ninth in the league in total yards allowed — knows it.

Also, Kamara hasn’t had a ton of success in recent weeks, nor has he been particularly productive against Tampa Bay lately.

Starting with the former: During a four-game stretch from Weeks 5-8, Kamara turned in rushing/receiving yardage totals of 194 (vs. Seattle), 124 (vs. Cincinnati), 105 (at Arizona) and 158 (vs. Las Vegas).

In four games since, he has just one game with more than 83 combined rushing/receiving yards (two weeks ago against the Rams, he had 89).

Not surprisingly, the Saints scored 39, 26, 34, 24 and 27 points against the Seahawks, Bengals, Cardinals, Raiders and Rams. In the five games this season that Kamara has been held Under this prop number, New Orleans averaged 12.8 points.

Having recommended a bet on the Saints-Bucs Under the total, we obviously expect New Orleans to have trouble scoring points. Which means we also expect the Bucs to contain Kamara, which they’ve done the last four times they faced him in the regular season.

Kamara (injury) missed the game against Tampa in Week 2. But in 2020 and 2021, he posted rushing/receiving yardage totals of 67 (home), 49 (road), 76 (road) and 31 (home).

Bet on another modest output from the Saints’ dual-threat running back Monday night.

Olave has enjoyed a sensational rookie season for New Orleans, leading the team in receptions (56) and receiving yards (822).

The former Ohio State standout also has had some explosive moments, hauling in at least one reception of 22-plus yards in five games. And he had a long catch of 20 yards in Week 1 at Atlanta and last week at San Francisco.t

In his first game against Tampa back in Week 2, Olave burned the Bucs for a 51-yard reception. It was his longest catch of the season until a 53-yard TD reception against the Rams two weeks ago.

Olave, who has nearly double the receiving yards of any other Saints player, will be facing an outstanding Tampa Bay secondary on Monday. The Bucs give up just 192 passing yards per contest, fifth best in the NFL.

However, Browns No. 1 wideout Amari Cooper had a 45-yard reception in last week’s overtime win over Tampa. Also, Seahawks rookie running back Kenneth Walker and veteran wide receiver Tyler Lockett had receptions of 23 and 21 yards, respectively, the previous game in Germany.

And in the two prior contests, Rams stud receiver Cooper Kupp had a 69-yard TD and Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews had a 22-yard catch (both in Tampa).

In fact, at least one opposing player has had a reception of at least 22 yards in 10 of 11 games against the Bucs this season, including the last six in a row. Look for that streak to continue Monday — and look for Olave to be the one to deliver.

Bet the Over on this prop at FanDuel.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.