How to bet Jalen Hurts in Super Bowl player props vs. Chiefs

When the playoffs started, the NFL betting community — both inside and outside of Eagles Nation — had deep concerns over the health of Jalen Hurts’ throwing shoulder.

While Hurts returned to the field to close out the regular season after missing two games with a shoulder sprain, he was merely average in his team’s Week 18 victory over the New York Giants.

Two playoff games and 69 Eagles points later, that same betting community … still isn’t sure what to make of Hurts and his shoulder.

Because although Philadelphia’s offense has averaged 30.3 points in three victories since his two-game absence, Hurts didn’t put up prolific passing or rushing numbers.

And in the NFC Championship Game against San Francisco, he clearly struggled when throwing deep.

So what will we see from Hurts on Sunday when he faces the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 57 — exactly eight weeks to the day that he injured his right wing?

Here are our Super Bowl predictions for four popular Jalen Hurts player props at Caesars Sportsbook.

Odds updated as of 10:15 a.m. ET on Feb. 7.

It’s tempting to suggest that there’s no way Philadelphia can win the Super Bowl if Hurts throws for fewer than 240 yards.

But here’s the reality: The Eagles are 16-1 behind Hurts this season, and the versatile QB has eclipsed 240 passing yards just seven times.

Now let’s pick apart those seven games a bit:

Hurts passed for 243, 333 and 340 in Philly’s first three contests. So since Week 4, Hurts has topped 240 passing yards just three times in 11 games.

In one of those (Week 9 at Houston), he barely got there (243 passing yards). In the other two, Hurts lit up Tennessee for a season-high 380 yards in Week 13, and two weeks later he burned Chicago for 315 yards (most of that coming before he suffered his shoulder injury).

The Bears’ pass defense ranked in the middle of the pack (17th). The Titans were dead last in the NFL defending the pass.

Kansas City’s ranking? Right behind the Bears at 18th. But that’s a tad misleading, because only three quarterbacks have thrown for more than 240 yards against the Chiefs since the team’s Week 8 bye.

The Bengals’ Joe Burrow did it twice (286 in Week 13 at home; 270 in the AFC title game). And the Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence (259) and Chargers’ Justin Herbert (280) did it in consecutive games in Weeks 10 and 11.

Bottom line: Philadelphia operates a run-first (and second and third) offense. That’s unlikely to change on Super Bowl Sunday.

So while Hurts should do some damage with his legs (as you’ll soon see), we expect him to have a so-so game — say, 225-230 yards — with his arm.

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Wait, you just said to take the Under on Hurts’ passing yards prop. Now you’re recommending the Over on his touchdown passes prop?

Yep. Because the two bets aren’t mutually exclusive.

Consider: Hurts has passed for 285 yards or more in five games. In those five contests, he had 1, 3, 4, 3 and zero touchdown passes.

Yet the three big yardage/multi TD games represent just one-third of Hurts’ nine games with more than one TD pass this season.

His yardage totals in the other six (all two-TD games): 243, 217, 175, 155, 154, 153.

If you’ve followed the Eagles all season, you know how this is possible: When Philadelphia gets inside the red zone — and particularly the opponents’ 10-yard line — Hurts is a threat to take off and scamper into the end zone.

That forces defensive coordinators to assign a player to keep an eye on Hurts — which in turn unclogs the usually clogged red-zone passing lanes.

Granted, the Chiefs have allowed exactly one TD pass in the last five games (after surrendering eight in their previous three contests). But they didn’t face an offense or quarterback as unique as the Eagles and Hurts.

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Kyler Murray. That’s the only quarterback Kansas City has faced this season who is as much of a threat as Hurts to pick up huge chunks of rushing yards. And even that comes with some caveats.

First, the Chiefs faced Murray back in the season opener at State Farm Stadium (which, as fate would have it, is the site of Sunday’s game).

Second, Kansas City raced out to a 37-7 lead that day. That forced Murray to sit in the pocket and wing it (which he did 34 times) instead of taking off running (which he did only five times for 29 yards).

The only other mobile quarterbacks the Chiefs have gone up against are Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Tennessee rookie Malik Willis.

Allen only had 32 rushing yards on 12 attempts — because he was busy shredding Kansas City’s secondary for 329 yards and three TDs. Willis tallied 40 yards on eight carries. But he only had five completions in 16 pass attempts. The Chiefs’ defense knew Willis had no chance to hurt them with his arm. Yet he still averaged 5 yards a carry.

As for Hurts, he averaged 5.2 yards per carry in the regular season. That number has come way down in the playoffs (a tick under 3.0 yards) — but for good reason: Hurts has played cautious, choosing to protect his shoulder rather than try for extra yardage.

With this being the Super Bowl — and Hurts being two full months removed from his initial injury — it’s go time.

So we expect Hurts to run early and often, and have success doing so — just as he did when he surpassed 60 rushing yards in four of five games before hurting his shoulder.

The only exception? He rushed for only 12 yards against the Titans because he passed for 380.

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This one shouldn’t be a shocker, as it plays off two previous Jalen Hurts player prop predictions: that he’ll finish Under his projected passing yards and Over his projected rushing yards.

If we nail those two, there’s a strong chance this one will hit, too.

It’s no secret that Philadelphia is going to try to run the ball down the Chiefs’ throat from the get-go. It’s been the game plan against pretty much every opponent not named the Titans, who remarkably had the NFL’s best run defense to go with the league’s worst pass defense.

Hurts threw the ball a season-high 39 times against Tennessee, and had 35-plus attempts against the Commanders in Week 3 (35), Cardinals in Week 5 (36), Bears in Week 15 (37) and Giants in Week 18 (35).

He also had 32 and 31 attempts, respectively, in the opening two games against Detroit and Minnesota, and 31 at New York in Week 14. Otherwise? Hurts has attempted between 24 and 28 passes in nine of his 17 starts.

Number of games with more than 31 attempts in his last 14 contests: three.

The one concern about this bet? Hurts tends to throw a lot more in close games. In games decided by six points or fewer, Hurts had 35, 37, 25 and 36 attempts.

Many believe Super Bowl 57 will be a tight one. We concur.

Still, all the other numbers point strongly to the Under on this prop. So does the fact that Philadelphia coach Nick Sirianni wants to keep the ball out of the hands of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes as much as possible.

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The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.