NHL Stanley Cup odds: Red-hot Bruins gain ground on favored Avalanche

A not-so-funny thing has happened to the Colorado Avalanche on their way to a seemingly inevitable re-coronation as NHL champions: Injuries to star players and overall inconsistency have translated into a mediocre start to the 2022-23 campaign.

How mediocre? After Tuesday’s 3-2 win over the lowly Philadelphia Flyers, the Avalanche are tied for seventh in the Western Conference standings — and thus barely clinging to a playoff spot.

Despite that reality a third of the way through their regular season, Colorado remains the lead dog in the NHL Stanley Cup odds market at multiple sportsbooks. However, that hot breath the Avs feel on the back of their necks is coming from Boston.

Off to a scalding 23-4-1 start, the Bruins are inching ever closer to Colorado in odds to win this year’s Stanley Cup — and in at least one spot, they’ve caught the Avs.

Here’s a fresh look at NHL Stanley Cup odds head into Wednesday’s limited three-game slate.

Note: Odds updated as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 14.

When we did this exercise exactly a month ago, Colorado remained the clear favorite to successfully defend its title despite a ho-hum 8-5-1 start to the season.

In fact, the Avs’ odds at BetMGM had only dipped ever so slightly from a preseason price of +450 to +475 — still nearly double the odds of Boston, which was second on the NHL Stanley Cup odds board at +800.

That gap has since closed considerably at BetMGM, where Colorado is now out to +550 and the Bruins are down to +600. FanDuel also has the Avs (+550) ahead of Boston (+650). However, the gap has been eliminated entirely at Caesars Sportsbook, where the teams are co-favorites at +550.

Under first-year coach Jim Montgomery, the Bruins bolted out to a 20-3 start that included 14 consecutive home wins. Their 20th victory overall and 14th at home? It was a 5-1 pummeling of the Avs in Boston on Dec. 3.

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Proving that result was hardly a fluke, Boston — which leads the NHL with 47 points — went to Denver four days later and blanked Colorado, 4-0.

The Avs played the latter game without superstar center Nate MacKinnon, who sustained an upper body injury between the two games against Boston and is out for at least another three weeks.

MacKinnon joins teammate Gabriel Landeskog on the shelf. The veteran left wing who had 30 goals and 29 assists last season has been sidelined all season while recovering from knee surgery.

Even with MacKinnon on the ice, Colorado (15-10-2) has been underperforming all season. For instance, the Avs had just three regulation victories in their last 10 games dating to Nov. 23.

That’s why, they’re just one point clear of Calgary for the eighth and final Western Conference playoff spot.

As we noted last month, the biggest reason sportsbooks have been reluctant to overly adjust Colorado’s Stanley Cup Playoff odds is they’ve seen lopsided action on the champs. And the last thing they want is more Avs money flooding the futures market.

In mid-November, BetMGM reported that 17.2% of all Stanley Cup bets and 22.8% of all Stanley Cup dollars were on Colorado. As of late last week, those percentages had barely dialed back to 16.9 and 20.7, respectively.

Boston and the New York Rangers — whose NHL title odds have slipped from +1600 last month to +2200 — are second in betting tickets at BetMGM (both 7.3%). However, the book has taken more money on the Vegas Golden Knights to win the Cup (12.5%) than any other team but the Avalanche.

Vegas (21-9-1, 43 points) has the best record in the Western Conference. The sixth-year franchise is tied with the Toronto Maple Leafs at BetMGM and FanDuel for the third best NHL Stanley Cup odds at +900. (The Knights are all alone in third at Caesars Sportsbook, but at +750.)

The Leafs (18-5-6, 44 points) are on a 12-0-3 tear are tied for second in the Eastern Conference, just three points back of Boston. The team Toronto is tied with is the one that has made the most dramatic move up the championship odds board: the New Jersey Devils.

The Devils (21-6-2, 44 points) have rocketed from +8000 (80-to-1) to the +1000 fifth choice at BetMGM and FanDuel. (They’re also +1000 at Caesars Sportsbook, tied for fourth with Toronto.)

New Jersey opened the season with consecutive losses and is now in the midst of an 0-2-1 slump. In between, though, the Devils went 21-1-1 over a 23-game stretch from Oct. 18-Dec. 6.

Even with that torrid run, BetMGM hasn’t seen a flood of action on New Jersey. As of last week, the Devils ranked fifth in bets (5.5%) and sixth in handle (5.8%) at the book.

Interested in jumping into the NHL Stanley Cup futures market and rolling the dice on a long shot? Consider taking a long look at two teams — one from each conference.

In the East, the Pittsburgh Penguins are a perfect 6-0 in December and 11-1-1 in their last 13 contests. Pittsburgh (17-8-4, 38 points) is tied for fourth place in the conference with Carolina and tied for fifth overall.

However, when it comes to odds to win it all, the Penguins and Rangers (15-10-5, 35 points) share the 12th spot at BetMGM (+2200) and Caesars (+2500), and are 13th at FanDuel (+2200).

Out West, the Seattle Kraken — who had the third-worst record during last year’s expansion season — are only four points out of second place in the conference standings.

The Kraken (16-9-3, 35 points) opened as a +125000 (125-to-1) long shot at BetMGM

to win the Cup. Despite their strong start, they can still be had at +5000 at BetMGM, Caesars and FanDuel.

What about the Flyers? Well, let’s just say that the rough season many were bracing for has come to fruition.

Since winning five of its first seven out of the gate, Philadelphia is 4-12-7 in its last 23 outings. The Flyers (9-14-7, 25 points) are one of just four NHL clubs — and the only one in the Eastern Conference — that has yet to reach double-digit victories.

Not surprisingly, then, Philadelphia is chilling in or near the basement when it comes to NHL Stanley Playoff odds. The Flyers are +30000 (300-to-1) at BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel.

At BetMGM, only the Anaheim Ducks, Arizona Coyotes, Chicago Blackhawks, Columbus Blue Jackets and San Jose Sharks (all +50000) have worse odds.

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