Packers vs. Eagles prediction: Bet on Philly to get back on the spread-covering track

The Philadelphia Eagles barely avoided their second straight defeat when they went to Indianapolis last Sunday and rallied late for a 17-16 victory. However, the Eagles never threatened to cover as a 6.5-point road favorite (as we predicted).

It was Philadelphia’s third consecutive non-cover after a stellar 5-1 ATS run.

Despite the spread-cashing slump, the Eagles (9-1 SU, 5-5 ATS) are laying big points again in Week 12. Depending on the sportsbook, they’re a 6.5- or 7-point home favorite against Green Bay on Sunday Night Football.

It’s the fifth straight week — and seventh time in the last eight weeks — that Philadelphia has been favored by at least six points.

Is the line justifiable? Well, the Packers (4-7 SU and ATS) have exactly one victory in their last seven games. And they’ve cashed just twice in their last eight.

Also, the Eagles haven’t had a four-game ATS skid since Weeks 11-14 of the 2019 campaign — a stretch of 48 games. It’s a streak we’re banking on continuing against the reeling Packers at The Linc.

Here’s our Packers vs. Eagles prediction for Sunday Night Football.

Note: Odds updated as of 3 p.m. ET on Nov. 23.

Through three quarters in Indianapolis last week, the Eagles looked dead in the water. They had just three points, committed three turnovers and looked completely out of sync offensively.

But Jalen Hurts and Co. woke up in the fourth quarter, rallying from deficits of 13-3 and 16-10, with Hurts scoring the game-winning touchdown on a 7-yard, fourth-down quarterback sneak with 80 seconds to play.

It was really the first gutty, come-from-behind win of the season Philadelphia, which mostly had been racing out to early leads in its first eight games prior to a Week 10 home loss to Washington.

It’s the exact type of victory the Packers recorded in Week 10, when they scrambled back from a 14-point deficit to beat Dallas 31-28 in overtime at home. However, Green Bay failed to capitalize on that momentum four days later against Tennessee, losing 27-17 as a 3-point home favorite on Thursday Night Football.

That deflating defeat all but ended the Packers’ playoff hopes. As a result, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see a completely flat performance from Green Bay on Sunday night.

Nor would it be a surprise to see the Packers’ stunningly anemic offense continue to misfire.

» READ MORE: Eagles favored against Aaron Rodgers, Packers in Week 12 primetime matchup

Even with reigning two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers in the pilot seat, Green Bay has scored 17 points or fewer in four of its last six games. Through 11 games, the team is averaging 18.4 points (26th in the NFL), tallying 22 or less eight times.

Compare that with the Eagles: Last week’s 17-16 victory at Indy was the first time this season that Philly has scored fewer than 20 points. And although they’ve been held to 17 and 21 points the last two weeks, the Eagles still have put up 24 or more seven times in 10 games.

But the biggest reason we’re siding with the home team involves a mismatch in the trenches.

Philadelphia ranks sixth in the NFL with 142.5 rushing yards per game; Green Bay’s defense ranks 24th against the run, yielding 135.8 yards per outing. The Eagles also lead the league with 18 rushing touchdowns; the Packers have surrendered 10 TDs on the ground.

Furthermore, with its 141-yard rushing effort against the Colts, Philadelphia has now compiled more than 135 rushing yards in seven of 10 games. Green Bay has yielded more than 150 rushing yards six times (including in four of its last six).

Given that the Packers’ defense ranks fifth against the pass, we expect the Eagles to ground-and-pound a lot Sunday night. And we expect that game plan to produce results (while also keeping the dangerous Rodgers off the field).

Finally, there’s a huge discrepancy between these teams in the turnover department. Philly still leads the NFL at +12, with a league-best 21 takeaways. Green Bay ranks 27th at -4, with 15 giveaways (only the Colts, Saints, Bills and Patriots have more).

Yes, we remain a bit concerned about the Eagles’ run defense (which was better last week). We’re also concerned about a glaring Sunday Night Football trend (the favorite won the last five weeks but failed to cover each time) and the fact Green Bay has cashed in its last three as an underdog (including two outright wins).

Still, Philadelphia is the superior side, one that has all the momentum. And going back to 2006, the straight-up winner has covered the point spread in 10 straight Eagles-Packers meetings.

So lay the chalk at Caesars Sportsbook and look for Green Bay to lose by at least nine points for the fourth time in the last six weeks — and the Eagles to win by more than a touchdown for the fifth time in six home games.

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