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France vs. Morocco prediction: Bet on the over when these teams meet in the World Cup semifinal

Will the Moroccan fairytale continue on Wednesday afternoon?

Youssef En-Nesyri of Morocco celebrates after scoring the team's first goal during the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 quarter final match between Morocco and Portugal at Al Thumama Stadium on December 10, 2022 in Doha, Qatar. (Photo by Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
Youssef En-Nesyri of Morocco celebrates after scoring the team's first goal during the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 quarter final match between Morocco and Portugal at Al Thumama Stadium on December 10, 2022 in Doha, Qatar. (Photo by Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)Read moreJustin Setterfield / Getty Images
    by Michael Leboff, Action Network
    Published 

It’s not very often that almost the entire sporting world will be behind a team in a soccer match, but that’s the case on Wednesday as Morocco, the Cinderella story of the World Cup, will take on France, the defending champions, for a place in the final.

As you can imagine, France is a massive favorite to end the fairytale and currently sit at -460 to advance past Morocco on Wednesday. Here’s how we’re betting this World Cup semifinal.

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France vs. Morocco prediction: Pick

  1. Over 2.5 Goals (+126, FanDuel)

France vs. Morocco prediction: Analysis

Not only has Morocco advanced to the semifinals against huge odds, but they’ve also done it the hard way. The Atlas Lions topped a group that featured Belgium and Croatia, then defeated Spain and Portugal in their first two knockout matches.

The knee-jerk reaction when a team like Morocco starts to pen a special story is to call them lucky, but nobody can say this run is a fluke. Sure, the Atlas Lions are relying on defensive doggedness to win matches rather than playing opponents off the pitch, but it’s working. Morocco held Spain and Portugal to just 1.9 total expected goals over their last two matches and they won the xG battle, 1.4 to 0.9, in a stupendous showing against the Portuguese in the quarterfinals.

» READ MORE: World Cup 2022 Golden Boot Odds: Mbappe, Messi, Giroud are favorites to claim award

In other words, Morocco’s defense may be what keeps them in games, but there’s enough talent and offensive creativity on this roster for it to give elite teams something to think about when the Atlas Lions have the ball.

Although they’ve already taken care of Belgium, Spain and Portugal, France represents an even steeper challenge for the Moroccans. Not only will Morocco need to slow down Kylian Mbappe, but the French midfield is incredibly balanced and they’re a threat on set pieces as well with Antoine Griezmann connecting with Olivier Giroud.

As strong as France has looked going forward, Les Bleus have had to navigate some wobbly defense. Their semifinal against England was basically a coin flip, but the French defense did allow 2.4 xG to the Three Lions and were also charged with 1.7 xGA versus a Polish team that looked terrible going forward for a lot of the tournament.

At some point, Morocco will concede goals and this French team can score in so many different ways that it’s hard to see this being a nail-biter like the Atlas Lions played against Spain and Portugal.

With everyone talking up the Morocco defense, there will be some value zagging the narrative and taking the Over 2.5 goals at +126.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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