Why the Phillies should prioritize avoiding the Braves in the wild-card round. And one other baseball thought.
The Phillies shouldn't want to face a Chris Sale-led Braves in a three-game series, while Alex McFarlane is emerging as a pivotal player at the end of the Phillies' bullpen.
The Phillies are exactly where we probably should have expected them to be, which is exactly where they were a week ago. That is, four games behind the Braves with 15 to play heading into this weekend’s three-game series in Atlanta. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, believe it or not. Treading water is as important as making up ground.
Right now, the Phillies number one goal shouldn’t be winning the National League East. It should be avoiding the Braves in the wild-card round. The NL playoff picture has changed considerably with the Dodgers winning seven straight and the Braves losing four of six.
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Now that L.A. has a 3½-game lead over Atlanta for the NL’s second bye, it’s looking increasingly likely that the eventual NL East division champs will end up hosting a best-of-three series against the No. 6 seed. Which means the Phillies should be just as focused on maintaining or growing their current 3½-game lead over the Padres, who entered Friday with a half-game lead over the Diamondbacks for the NL’s final playoff spot.
Some folks will scoff at the idea of the Phillies fearing the Braves in an October series. But best-of-three is barely a series. This isn’t about fearing the Braves. It’s about fearing Chris Sale.
David Murphy alerts
Last weekend, the Phillies took their latest dose of medicine from one of the game’s all-time greats when Sale held them to two runs in six innings of a 5-2 Braves win. Atlanta’s presumptive Game 1 starter is not a problem the Phillies are magically going to solve just because the leaves are falling off trees.
The Braves are 3-0 in Sale’s three starts against the Phillies this season and they’ve won five of his seven since joining the team in 2024. His numbers should make you gulp. In his last five starts against the Phillies dating back to May of last season, Sale has allowed a grand total of four runs in 31 innings. He has struck out 40 of the 118 batters he has faced. That’s 33.9%.
In a longer series, the Phillies would have a clear starting pitching advantage over the Braves. Grant Holmes and Tyler Mahle have both had some success against the Phillies, most recently holding them to a combined two runs in 12 innings of last weekend’s series. Holmes has allowed just five runs in 20⅔ innings against the Phillies over the last two seasons, while Mahle held them scoreless in seven innings and 5⅔ innings in two of his three starts prior to last weekend (albeit dating back to 2021). Regardless, the Phillies would have a significant advantage in three of the first four games of a five-game series.
In a three-game series, Sale in Game 1 is a monumental equalizer of the odds. They’d much rather take their chances against the Cubs, who would presumably start Clay Holmes and Shota Imanaga, followed by a spin of the roulette wheel in Game 3.
A sigh of relief
Now, about that bullpen ...
Give interim manager Don Mattingly credit for getting Alex McFarlane back on the mound in the eighth inning on Wednesday. The 25-year-old right-hander got ground balls from three of the four Astros batters he faced to deliver an 11-7 lead to Jhoan Duran in the ninth. McFarlane didn’t record a strikeout but threw strikes on 12 of his 15 pitches. This wasn’t exactly a high-leverage situation, at least not compared to the last time he walked off the mound. But it was a situation where a true set-up man gets the ball, and Mattingly gave it to him. Which is exactly what the Phillies manager should be doing.
The underdiscussed aspect of McFarlane’s welcome-to-the-bigs moment against Ronald Acuna Jr. and the Braves on Sunday was the fact that he was on the mound at all. Mattingly easily could have pivoted after McFarlane allowed a one-out single to Mike Yastrzemski and a double to Drake Baldwin to bring Acuna up as the tying run in a 4-1 game with a base open. He had a lefty warming and Braves lefties Matt Olson and Michael Harris due up after Acuna. Conventional baseball wisdom says you don’t put the tying run on base. Still, it said something about the Phillies’ estimation of McFarlane that he both remained on the mound and challenged Acuna Jr. throughout the seven-pitch at-bat.
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It also says something that Mattingly didn’t flinch after McFarlane allowed a three-run, game-tying home run to Acuna.
“I don’t think you learn anything yet,” Mattingly said after the Phillies’ eventual 5-4 loss. “I think we see how he responds. I feel about the way he’s going to respond. When everything’s going good it’s pretty smooth sailing. Everybody’s going to struggle, what happened to him today is going to happen to everybody if you play long enough. So we’ll see. I think he’ll be fine. He’s been a kid that’s handled everything. The disposition’s been good.”
The Phillies are doing exactly what they should be doing with McFarlane. The first goal is to get to the postseason with an eighth-inning option that is something better than a flip of the coin. The second goal is to get there with somebody who actually gives them a significant advantage like the one they have in the ninth inning with Duran. On both counts, McFarlane is their best hope. Overwhelmingly so. There is nothing like exposure therapy for a big-league reliever. There will be plenty of big spots in October. The Phillies need McFarlane to become a guy who thrives in them.
With the minor league season winding down, Phillies farm director Luke Murton returns to Phillies Extra to discuss the state of the system and upcoming changes to his role. He also offers an encouraging update on injured top prospect Aidan Miller. Watch here.
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Previous episodes: Mike Hazen | Tony Gwynn Jr. | Kevin Stocker | Bobby Dickerson | Jim Bowden | John Middleton | Ryan Howard | Dan Baker | Ricky Bottalico | Preston Mattingly
