Eagles’ odds to pick No. 1 overall in the NFL draft are stronger than you think. That makes QB the only question.
It all starts with Jalen Hurts. He is the key variable. The more a team’s roster is in flux, the lesser its talent, the more the quarterback needs to make up the difference.
The questions are more complicated than anyone seems to think.
The head coach? The offensive coordinator? The trade deadline?
They are secondary concerns.
One answer matters.
Are the Eagles committed to Jalen Hurts as their quarterback next season, and for the foreseeable future?
They are a very strong bet to be drafting in the top five of the 2027 NFL draft.
David Murphy alerts
Their odds at No. 1 overall are better than you might think.
The O-line? Tight end? The defensive scheme?
All of it depends on who they think Hurts is, and what they think they could be with one of the options that are now within reach.
I know some people will feel a certain way about raising such a question at the present moment. I sympathize with, even share, some of those feelings. That said, there are few greater luxuries than the freedom to defer to ones feelings. It is a luxury limited to those without decision-making power. Howie Roseman and Jeffery Lurie do not have that option.
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It’s perfectly, even necessarily, human to feel a little gross about questioning the future of a man whom we last saw leading an undermanned Eagles team to what should have been an upset shortly after spending the night in the hospital and shortly before spending the rest of the season on blood thinners for blood clots in his lungs. Roseman and Lurie will have plenty of feelings as they consider the question. Perhaps those feelings will factor into their answer. I can make a strong argument that those feelings should factor into their answer. I can make a stronger argument that, in this particular case, those feelings are in alignment with practicality. But Roseman and Lurie cannot simply avoid the question. To do so would be organizational malpractice.
The reality of the Eagles’ present moment is one that can define their next 5 to 10 years. After another listless performance in a 27-10 loss to the Commanders, the Eagles are almost surely going to end up with a draft pick in the realm where franchise quarterbacks are most often selected. They have a very real chance at landing the No. 1 overall pick. If they don’t earn it outright, they could have an opportunity to trade for it. If they don’t have an opportunity to trade for the pick itself, they could have an opportunity to trade for the incumbent quarterback of the team that does wind up with the pick. Right now, pole position belongs to the Chargers, who also happen to have a 28-year-old quarterback who has received MVP votes.
This is not an argument that Justin Herbert is a better quarterback than Hurts. It certainly isn’t an argument that his resume is better. Likewise for Drew Mestemaker, or CJ Carr, or Arch Manning, or any of the other college quarterbacks who mock drafts have targeted as potential first-round picks. The argument is that the Eagles must decide where they stand in each of these individual cases. It’s not even an argument. It’s just the way an organization must handle its business, same as every year. Except, this year, they are bad enough to be in a position where they must actually decide.
There is no Andrew Luck this year. Not even a Trevor Lawrence, or Caleb Williams, or Joe Burrow, or even a Drake Maye. The question is whether there is a Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. There haven’t been many since the Chiefs and Bills took their guys in the back half of the top 10 in consecutive years. The Chiefs traded up to do it. The odds say there won’t be such a guy this year. They also say that, if there is, the Eagles won’t soon be within striking distance of another.
As recently as last year, some might’ve put Herbert in that category. The rare thing about the Eagles’ current position is that the Chargers are also in it. Even if Los Angeles sticks with Herbert, it adds to the probability that No. 1 overall is in play.
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Both math and intuition suggest that neither the Chargers nor the Eagles will end up at No. 1. The Dolphins are 1-6 and built to lose with the NFL’s toughest remaining strength of schedule. If not the Dolphins, then the Titans, who are 1-7 with a tiebreaker loss to the Eagles.
The simulations suggest the Eagles are most likely to remain where they are, which is among a gaggle of nine teams with two wins. A lot will depend on the outcome of late-season matchups against 3-5 Arizona and a 2-6 Colts team that is fully in the tank despite owing their first-round pick to the Jets.
To get a sense of the Eagles’ likely draft position, I whipped up a rudimentary model based on the historical performances of teams from Week 9 on based on their average point different and that of their opponents through seven games. The results are what the naked eye would suggest: the Cardinals, Titans, Eagles, Dolphins, Chargers and Colts each project to win three more games.
One thing the model can’t possibly weigh is the Eagles’ back-to-back games against the Cardinals and Colts in Weeks 13 and 14. We’ve seen before the way Roseman is wired, most notably in that 2020 season finale. It has served him and the Eagles well. Then again, the considerations have never had this many layers.
The first of them is what it always is. The quarterback. Who do the Eagles think they are with Hurts. Who do they think they would be in the short term without him. Who do they think they could be in the long term with someone else.
The considerations are not limited to apple-for-apple. There are a lot of teams that would gladly trade to have Hurts as their quarterback. The Jets currently have three first-round picks projected in the Top 10, none of them in the Top 3.
The calculations could change in a counterintuitive direction. There is a scenario where the Eagles get the No. 1 overall pick and it makes Hurts a no-brainer. Trade down from No. 1 to the team at No. 2, then trade down again from No. 2 to a team who covets the draft’s second-best quarterback. Draft LSU tackle Jordan Seaton and Oregon tight end Jamari Johnson. Or, draft Seaton and Minnesota interior lineman Greg Johnson.
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It all starts with Hurts. He is the key variable. The more a team’s roster is in flux, the lesser its talent, the more the quarterback needs to make up the difference. You know the great ones because their teams are never rebuilding. The quarterback is the glue that holds the thing together as the organization retools around.
The Eagles aren’t at that point yet. But they could be there soon. They must prepare as if. The only question that matters is the uncomfortable one to ask.
The Eagles have problems. Eight games into the season, that much is sure. But which ones are symptomatic, versus the ones that are systemic? From the head coach to the personnel, from coordinators to the front office, The Inquirer’s Jeff McLane and David Murphy scrutinize the micro issues that point to some of the larger dilemmas the Eagles now face: should they start to pack it in, and who will be held accountable for the team’s shortcomings? Listen here.
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